No its accurate. Add it up yourself.

Also I only compared through the 10th since Netherlands data isn't in yet for the 11th but it will look worse after today.

And no ships to Europe on the horizon yet for Q2...

I would actually argue that what we are seeing in Europe, Texas, Colorado, Los Angeles is a smaller spillover despite a bigger wave.

It is counterintuitive but I believe that is because despite how awful Q1 was the order rate was actually increasing in March so Tesla had a mismatch between production and orders.

What does it say that despite a blowout Q2 there isn't any spillover? To me that says the order rate collapsed long ago so Tesla matched their whole order book. Even if a bunch of orders come in in August and September they are screwed for Q3.

I don't trust the "in-transit" figure since it is not clearly defined what that means however Tesla reported only 7,400 vehicles in transit at end of Q2 compared to 10,600 in Q1.

Irrelevant. Even assuming best case FSD scenario I'm skeptical of China market opportunity. Will CCP allow foreign firms to control large networks of vehicles/passengers in China? Also local competition likely fierce. Chinese tech cos have done well vs foreign counterparts (Didi > Uber, Baidou > Google, QQ > FB, Ali > Amazon).

Curious how others break down $TSLA stock price.

What % of $TSLA price is attributable to fluctuations in deliveries?

What about other things? e.g.

• autonomous tech (saw estimate this was 15-20% of stock price)
• China market op
• semi truck
• supercharger infrastructure
• solar energy & storage products
• battery sales to automakers
• future gov incentives
• other (including irrationality)

their assets aren't worth their debt and longterm liabilities.
so i attribute about 100% of the stockprice to stupidity.

might buy some tesla stocks soon lol

How do you value the assets (ie. method(s), reasoning, results)?

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019...sil-fuels-grid

This month, officials in Los Angeles, California, are expected to approve a deal that would make solar power cheaper than ever while also addressing its chief flaw: It works only when the sun shines. The deal calls for a huge solar farm backed up by one of the world's largest batteries. It would provide 7% of the city's electricity beginning in 2023 at a cost of 1.997 cents per kilowatt hour (kWh) for the solar power and 1.3 cents per kWh for the battery. That's cheaper than any power generated with fossil fuel.

Where is the daily data?

Are they not selling because there are no ships? All the cars are being sold in USA?

How do you?
I'm just curious to hear a bull's case .

If you multiply what is in there today by 3, they are ahead of April.

https://eu-evs.com/pivot.html

Where is U.S. delivery data?

Thats not how it works. You should chart against April (Brand QoQ with graph symbol) in which case they are 359 behind through the 11th day of the month, or put another way, they are at 58% of Q2 so far. Not surprising since Tesla claimed 7,400 in transit this quarter vs 10,000 last quarter, they still had backlog in Q2, and activity in Troy Teslike's tracker died near the end of May.

No official daily or monthly data worth a damn but you have #SGF:

@Latrilife for Los Angeles (Marina Del Rey.)

@CovfefeCapital for Texas.

@DeanSheikh1 for Colorado.

Others periodically check out other delivery centers but these are the users posting daily or weekly data.

How do those users get the data?

They sit and watch the delivery centers. They may also use recording devices. Assuming they aren't making it all up which I guess is a possibility.

Data doesn't seem to tie out to other views, but this is obviously a better way to estimate. thank you for pointing this out.

super difficult imo and I don't have a confident opinion atm (not a bull or a bear)

market probably underpricing some assets and overpricing others

if I was a bull (or a bear) I would be able to answer the question and show my methods tho

Edit ffs I'm an idiot and can't link a tweet

no ****, who would have thought?

oh wait, literally everybody who knows anything about about self driving, that's who.

Parkings is moving at <10mph, all other vehicles are moving at <10mph, there is no real seperation where pedestrians & cars allowed to travel,...

How can this be hard? I would guess you just need to teach it all the different signs that are being used in parking lots, and the rest would be super easy compared to real roads.


Also lol @ the premise that it has become annoying that you have to walk to your car spot in a parking lot. Is this really a big deal? This seems like the type of feature that you will use when it's new & rare to brag, and once every car has it nobody will care.

And this is what was promised:



Does anyone think they'll have "full automony" ready in six months as promised (or even 5 years), when they can't get a car to navigate a singe level parking lot at 8km/hour, despite promising it in 6 weeks 8 months ago???

There are only two options at this stage:

1. Musk is very stupid person in many ways who can't understand much about complex engineering and software and is incapable of understanding detail.
2. Musk is a liar and a fraud.

We know for a fact that he's (2), that's proven in multiple ways, but I think there's pretty strong evidence of (1) as well. In evidence of this:

- Musk was such a loser/moron that he thought he could do "air friction limited" robots that you'd need a "strobe light to see" and outdo all the majors on robotics. He nearly destroyed his company trying to implement this comically failed vision, so at the very least he's too stupid to a) understand how robotics work and b) listen to people who know more than him and are smarter than him.

- Musk hired and trusted people who implemented an incredibly stupid and naive strategy for autonomous driving - "machine learn everything". Anyone with a brain and real world software engineering experience would know this approach is going to fail miserably. Musk lacked both despite having worked in software.

- Musk micromanages multiple things that should not be micromanaged. He appears not to be able to see detail or parallelize. His previous efforts at coding lacked basic think-ahead structure that anyone with a functioning brain would have created:

So I think there's a high probability he's both a liar and an idiot. When I say an idiot I mean at engineering and planning, he's a talented money hustler and conman and good at PR and some high-level (non-planning, non-engineering) business decisions.

And you can see his stupidity in the way he speaks. He can't think ahead far enough to organize coherent sentences, frequently stopping and starting, getting lost, etc.

When it all comes crashing down people will wonder how they got conned by this loser, a la Elizabeth Holmes.

that's just most of the cases.

what's hard is the absolute edge cases, the 0.1%.
imagine a concert/sporting event ending in the night, with snow/heavy rain and hundreds of people trying to leave the parking lot at the same time.

your car is in the middle of lights from all directions, hundreds of people moving, everything is reflecting.
that's the stuff that everyone else has been and will be working on for years.

That's not hard. You just turn those cases off. We're talking about summon here, not autonomous driving on roads where it can't just stop.

It's easy to come up with an algorithm that evaluates conditions/reliability and prevents or stops summon with a warning to the app. Tesla releases far more half-baked and dangerous algorithms all the time so no reason they couldn't do that here.

The reason they don't have advanced summon is because their autonomous driving progress/3D mapping/object recognition/sign recognition/pathway planning is so ****ing awful they can't even figure out a parking lot at 5 miles/hour. And no wonder when the lead in their autonomous team wants to machine learn everything. Great strategy, loser.

Lidar can handle reflections and lots of people and lots of lights just fine.