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Originally Posted by ToothSayer
There are hundreds of essential problems to solve before humans can colonize Mars even temporarily, let alone sustainably. Most of these problems are not solvable with current or near future technology; robotics and new materials are needed, and these will come from the regular economy, not fiddling with rockets.
Better (and lower cost) rockets and spacecraft are necessary but not sufficient conditions.
I doubt you can predict the timeline of these inventions accurately; and you probably don't have an accurate model of the current state of the technologies in existence at any given time, so drawing a confident conclusion based on the premise that you do is fallacious.
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Originally Posted by ToothSayer
I might remind you we haven't even visited Mars with a human crew, a trivially simple problem compared to colonization.
Wait... are you really suggesting the Matt Damon mission was faked?
Impossible.
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Originally Posted by ToothSayer
It's just a shameless PR exercise at this point.
Why is it shameless? What would be a non-shameless way to go about inventing new rocket technology and reducing the cost (for whatever purpose)?
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Originally Posted by ToothSayer
Look at you - taken in hook line and sinker, defending SpaceX because you falsely believe they're "working to colonize Mars". That's why the PR is done.
We are already closer to colonizing Mars by virtue of the work SpaceX has done even if you freeze its development right now.
Any pioneer has to marshal resources and talent. Having a compelling mission is an effective tool for that purpose.
Your mistake is that you're conflating a consequence of success (financial returns for investors) with the purpose of attempting in the first place.