im just going to post must see tweets now and thats all

https://twitter.com/jurabilis/status...68929978490880

Feels like now's the time to load up short a bit?

Bulls are super excited that deliveries may meet low end of guidance, no one is thinking about margins dropping and all the price reductions affecting cash flows/income. Tax incentive cut in half again as of today, Q3 should end up weak, $566M bond payments (solar city) coming due in November. Growth story is dead, they aren't spending any money to achieve growth.

either now or right after a pop on deliveries, either seems ok to me

I'd wait for delivery numbers, but I'd expect a pop on anything over 80k

Apart from Lathrop being built out and a giant factory in China going up rapidly.

I think you wait and see, particularly since Trump took his foot off the gas on the trade war for a while.

yeah i'm gonna sit tight (still short but not adding), probably through q2 earnings and keep an eye out for q3 deliveries

in b4 tesla raises again either a) after deliveries before earnings or b) on potential battery investors day(tm)!

At this point they are pretty much guaranteed to beat 80k, it won't pop the stock. 88k+ probably would.


ASP is down like 25%. Earnings should be interesting.

short of fraud im not sure how earnings isnt a total disaster

VP Engineering Steve MacManus out and Head of EMEA Sales also out


:thisisfine.jpg:

Are they really going to wait until after market close tomorrow to release delivery numbers?

95,200 deliveries, produced 87,048

17,650 S/X
77,550 model 3

95,600 reported deliveries, stocks up $15+AH. I'd imagine it bleeds down before open tomorrow, but hopefully it holds some.

A little better than expected but more or less in line.

Not that great for Tesla honestly. Looks like Nevada has hit its limits (pretty sure market has been assuming this) and a new gigafactory is needed to resume growth even if demand remains strong. But not bad either. Good enough to raise a few more billions.

All eyes on China for next 12-24 months. That’s where the demand/production growth will be. IMO, biggest trap there is Tesla tries to cut prices to promote unit sales. In East Asian markets, discount sales are basically brand suicides. China is a country where people will literally refuse to buy something because it’s “too cheap.”

I was kind of hoping it would go green thinking it's a good opportunity to add to my short.

But 95k has me questioning things some. Between that and the capital raise they seem to have plenty of cash for the rest of this year.

They don’t need to raise much for China plant either because they got Chinese banks and even Shanghai government backing the plant.

The trade war should be a big risk factor but Musk is good at getting public money and selling dreams so I think he’ll be fine.

My back of the napkin math says that these numbers at ~75% ASP will lead to similar financials as Q1. What am I missing here?

That makes sense but I'm not convinced they won't game it somehow.

And long term how will they bankrupt if China works out?

Yeah, they beat q4 deliveries but ASPs are down so much. Not sure who this impresses

I get that they had to lower ASP to get the deliveries, it's just still stronger than I would have thought.

Regardless it doesn't come close to remotely justifying valuation but, voting machine weighing machine etc whatever.

get rekt bottom feeders

Kind of random. Saw some dude with SpceX T-shirt. Asked if he worked for SpaceX, he was practically dripping with sadness when he said he used to.

He jumped into how awesome the company was to work for as an engineer and if not for his wife getting a job in NYC, he would have never quit.

I was starting to get creeped out by his obvious cult mentality. His wife then said he’s going to Google. Apparently having a SpaceX stamp on resume is still rather prestigious but I had the distinct impression his wife didn’t feel the same way about SpaceX as his husband.

I just find it fascinating how Musk can treat his employees like **** and still command such loyalty.

Have you considered the possibility that SpaceX might actually be a good spot for engineering work?

They're not a 996 worker in industrial China.

Pretty sure he worked more than 72 hours implied by 996 and he did say he was getting a big pay bump going to Google.

Assuming he got stock options at SpaceX, there's a non trivial calculation to work out how much his total package was worth, because you have to value stock options in a private company which are not on market. Incidentally, I'd kill for those stock options.

What basis do you have for saying that he treats his employees like ****? They're amongst the smartest minds in the world, they won't tolerate torture without good reason.

Your friend seemed to like it at SpaceX. I've spoken to engineers from Tesla and SpaceX, they generally had good things to say about it. Reviews on Glassdoor back this up too.

SpaceX is trying to colonize Mars, do you really think it's going to be ****ing nap pods and flex time?

I'm glad there are people like your friend who value working on difficult and important problems and interesting technologies, rather than just thinking about money and comfort. We need more people like that.