The numbers in the email are likely materially correct, im only saying that because they arent amazing considering 1) leasing 2) cost cutting


The major markets thing is pretty much done imo

There's an argument that he's using emails to staff to pump the stock, knowing they will be leaked. He put a smiley face on Twitter just before writing the first recent leaked email.

A year ago I would have laughed at that theory and called it ridiculous.

-independent trackers aren't seeing a big increase
-this tax drop isn't as big of a deal
-offering extra sales incentives
-quality being destroyed in news
-europe sales look abysmal
-refresh coming for s and x
-suppliers coming out saying they are being told much lower numbers for full year

June will be the best month of the year.. still not convinced good enough to meet guidance

Europe #s:
https://mobile.twitter.com/fly4dat/s...03118744399872

Disagree on spiegel, but whatever

Deliveries: I think you’re too low on first 2 months US (looks like you’re counting model 3 only), but high on June. 50k total is a reasonable bull case for US. 20k in Europe is a stretch but will depend on price cuts. 8k China is probably too low, but 12k for Canada and sundry is definitely too high. 90k total will be very tough but 80k+ is possible. I tend to agree that would pop the stock, but that is becoming a common idea so who knows. Overall I think you are putting too much emphasis on the delivery number though. They just lost 700 million and everyone knows they have been cutting prices so people are still going to want to see the financials to decide what the delivery number really means. It’s not just how many cars they can sell, it’s also whether they can do it profitably.

I agree the leak is probably accurate (in part because it’s actually bad), but disagree on leasing. Does not seem to be popular at all and they are anti selling it.

The stock just rose 18.5% bottom to top in a few days on early indications of demand death not being quite as bad as feared.

You think it's a reasonable take that "I'm putting too much emphasis on the delivery number"?

People care about growth and narratives, not profits. If Tesla breaks records on deliveries then bulls are going to bullish and shorts are going to cover. Bigger money has largely sold out to all the baggies already so that powerful downside force is gone for now.

Yes? The stock moves for stupid reasons and no reason, you can’t just attribute this move to the deliveries leak (which happened last night). Besides that, if you think it was because of higher deliveries expectations then that suggest a higher deliveries number is already being priced in relative to expectations, which makes it a worse catalyst from this point (which is what I read your post to be commenting on). Obviously delivery numbers matter but we are past the point where the growth narrative is all that matters. They were supposed to be profitable and cash flow positive at this point in the ramp, and they aren’t. Now they also have to support the narrative that they can plausibly become profitable and people need to see financials for that. Also it’s still a $40 billion market cap company, there are still institutional holders.

Barring some drastic change, Europe will be less than 15k all in for q2.

Yea i wonder if bears don't want them to sell more. Aren't they selling a lot at a loss? Run out of cash faster?

Sure you can. You can quite easily chart the progress of this off lows with the timing of positive US deliveries information from various sources. The only bit of outside help it got was Powell hinting at rate cuts, and that was worth 2.5% market or so.

Yesterday's leak was the latest in a long line of information on US deliveries that was positive.
Theoretically, sure. The stock doesn't work like that though. This squeezes hard if they crush deliveries. Shorts (who are very dumb people) are maxed out, and added at $177, $185, $190, $195, 200, don't believe the deliveries numbers at all at this point. That's a classic and long standing setup in Tesla.

What is your evidence for this? The stock crashed when the growth narrative died. We don't have independent evidence of (growth continues but losses -> stock dive). We have evidence of (growth falters and losses -> stock dive). And since losses haven't mattered much before...?

It'll be really interesting to see if all the people tracking deliveries are right or if the "leaks" are.

yeah i'm gonna follow the delivery tracking people pretty closely this month. @covfefecapital tracks TX, @latrilife tracks MDR, @DeanSheikh1 tracks colorado, @fly4dat tracks europe

Yep, and if the leaks are true i think they'll see upticks soon

What are the shorts who open low (or high) and rush to cover on any pump thinking? I don't get the whole idea of the trade as you can guarantee a cover around 0 if just given time to work out. As soon as you start adding up a sequence of trades that includes any amount of losers, it starts to get really hard to outperform the lock.

Apparently California has used up all the funding for the $2500 ev rebate. I'm reading this as people can't get the rebate unless the broke state adds more funding.

California is by far their largest market. Though I'm not sure there's anyone left in socal without a tesla.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ErikSdale...90349543133184

Yea

They both are there is no contradiction.

Everyone is focused on Elon lying but he is better at massaging facts to garner a pump than he is at outright lying.

How many times have we seen him extrapolate an unusually active week of orders or deliveries to make it seem like demand is increasing?

All of the people tracking deliveries observed a drawdown from inventory in May as production was almost completely going abroad and deliveries were still decently strong compared to Q1. That inventory is only building back up in the last two weeks.

So I think it is likely that a small backlog of orders for models/trims that were not in inventory built up over the last couple months and those order and in transit numbers are accurate. But at the same time they aren't getting too many new orders at this time (which is what Elon was attempting to imply) since they haven't introduced any new models or discounts recently AND they will struggle to match and deliver many orders in their end of quarter rush inevitably leading to another big in transit number.

June still slow in Texas. Where are they delivering these big June #s?

https://mobile.twitter.com/CovfefeCa...82161012961280

Too early still. Wave will be the last two weeks.

Report that they were producing RHD cars this week.

Now they've probably switched back to NA for the end of quarter. Its not an efficient way to sell cars but one advantage is that they know how many of each color/trim to build based on the backlog of orders so they can continue to keep their inventory low.

To my point: https://twitter.com/DeanSheikh1/stat...917515264?s=19

Ut oh

Does this Q deliveries even matter? I believe it's about guidance and demand drying enough enough to kill the growth story. And since they can't make money with the current production numbers...

Matters for the stock going up temporarily

Is there a minimum resistance level where tsla may get acquired by someone willing to burn ****loads of money to create demand at a much lower price per car and grow the foundation of tsla into a more efficient company?

Is there a scenario where Elon is forced to sell fairly soon due to all of the borrowing and such?

I’m biased but I don’t know many deep pockets that want to take on Tesla’s off balance sheet liabilities, specifically the civil suits from funding secured and the AP deaths

woo shareholder meeting hype! not rly expecting much hot goss in either direction but i've seen some pics of roadster semi and model Y