TSLA showing cracks? - Page 343 - Business, Finances and Investing Forum

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TSLA showing cracks?

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05-23-2019 , 08:17 PM

#8551

DrawNone

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2013 Posts: 5,023

two ?s after reading about that morgan stanley analyst's call:

1. was he laying out a worse case scenario or his opinion?

2. did morgan sell their customers tesla as a good investment 3 weeks ago knowing their analyst thought the stock was ****?

Quote

05-23-2019 , 08:27 PM

#8552

synth_floyd

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 7,074

What are the chances that the 900/day production stat is complete bull**** and the e-mail was released by Musk himself to try to prop up the stock? 80%?

Quote

05-23-2019 , 08:37 PM

#8553

MrFeelNothin

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 4,457

Quote:

Originally Posted by synth_floyd

What are the chances that the 900/day production stat is complete bull**** and the e-mail was released by Musk himself to try to prop up the stock? 80%?

Elon doesn't lie when he can deceive.

Regarding production- it doesn't matter but the purpose of that 900 number was to make readers think they are still production constrained.

Observers on twitter did report this week that Fremont did 900 M3s in a day. I don't know if that can be maintained or if it was a burst but I don't think it was an outright lie.

Similarly the 50k number is probably technically accurate but the implication that 50k extrapolates to a 90k quarterly run rate is false because the order rate is not linear. There were bursts for leasing, SR+ in EU/China, and M3 orders for UK/other.

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05-23-2019 , 09:01 PM

#8554

jvds

adept

Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 1,176

Obviously demand is what really matters, but production does matter for keeping suppliers at ease and for margins

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05-23-2019 , 10:22 PM

#8555

jb514

veteran

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 2,837

Quote:

Originally Posted by MrFeelNothin

Does anyone think the 50k orders is probably misleading? It seems like what's important is which cars they sell rather than just hitting a total number. If it's entirely low margin M3s then 50k is really bad. If there were a lot of high margin cars in the queue, I'm sure we'd know

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05-24-2019 , 02:16 AM

#8556

ToothSayer

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2015 Posts: 13,237

50K order as of yesterday is good for this quarter compared to the where fears are at. But Musk is a dude who lies about $80 billion buyouts and was probably in a quiet little rage/despair as his stock was hitting $190, so it's close to worthless in terms of truth value.

Demand death was easily discovered before the stock cratered by putting together bits of evidence, demand recovery if it happens will be too. At this point Musk is as useful as a hobo for information about his company, he's a straight up fraud.

Quote

05-24-2019 , 06:25 AM

#8557

ToothSayer

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2015 Posts: 13,237

Yours truly remains the greatest predictor of Musk bull**** ever born:

Quote:

Originally Posted by ToothSayer

The CEO just sent an email requiring every outgoing invoice - even for toilet paper - to be signed by the CFO personally and 1/10th by the CEO himself

Quote:

Originally Posted by ToothSayer

...and with Elon requiring the child CFO to sign off on all toilet paper purchases as well as everything else.

I was being humorous, but alas:

I'm sure Musk's "Three Squares a Day" cuck army that he calls Tesla is going to end well if the child CFO is down to counting rolls after a $2.7 billion raise.

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05-24-2019 , 06:52 AM

#8558

stinkypete

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 15,783

If people are willing to help deliver cars for free "for the cause", I'm sure they'll be okay with bringing their own toilet paper to work too.

Quote

05-24-2019 , 08:55 AM

#8559

syndr0me

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 1,682

Quote:

Originally Posted by jvds

Obviously demand is what really matters, but production does matter for keeping suppliers at ease and for margins

You know what really keeps suppliers at ease, paying them

Quote

05-24-2019 , 09:50 AM

#8560

syndr0me

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 1,682

Quote:

Originally Posted by stinkypete

If people are willing to help deliver cars for free "for the cause", I'm sure they'll be okay with bringing their own toilet paper to work too.

i mean, those are 2 different sets of people, but sure

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05-24-2019 , 10:33 AM

#8561

case3

adept

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 774

Took some profit today. With the falling demand narrative going mainstream I think they will do whatever it takes to get an 80k delivery figure. Feels like the current mood and 65k deliveries would death spiral the stock.

Trying not to get carried away after large price movements here, sometimes I forget this guy spends all day coming up with new fraud pumps, hard to imagine he just lets it go down here.

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05-24-2019 , 11:19 AM

#8562

syndr0me

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 1,682

i think they print 80 too, 80 low/no margin cars, severely declining OPEX/CAPEX, Fed cut in half again, more losses, cash burn worse than expected as the effects of cash flow cycle on declining demand take effect (paying for last quarters production while taking in current quarter revenue)

dont blame for profit taking tho, just feels like nothing good is around the corner, the hype machine is over

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05-24-2019 , 11:23 AM

#8563

coordi

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 23,770

I feel like being pessimistically cautious about a 15-20$ rip for musk tweeting out a gif of him giving harambe a lap dance is a reasonable stance considering the history

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05-24-2019 , 11:29 AM

#8564

Xkf

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 30,166

im debating taking some profits today as well. i think anything over 80k deliveries pumps

Quote

05-24-2019 , 11:58 AM

#8565

syndr0me

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 1,682

Quote:

Originally Posted by coordi

I feel like being pessimistically cautious about a 15-20$ rip for musk tweeting out a gif of him giving harambe a lap dance is a reasonable stance considering the history

it's a fair take for sure

Quote

05-24-2019 , 12:11 PM

#8566

jvds

adept

Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 1,176

Quote:

Originally Posted by syndr0me

You know what really keeps suppliers at ease, paying them

It’s Tesla, let’s not get carried away...

Quote

05-24-2019 , 12:12 PM

#8567

bip!

Slow Pony

Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 14,276

If they get a boost on the quarter... it is just a good chance to buy more puts. I am not hedging or profit taking now.

Quote

05-24-2019 , 12:47 PM

#8568

JKC

grinder

Join Date: Aug 2018 Posts: 548

Shorting the stock price bump from Musks's next rap single.

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05-24-2019 , 12:53 PM

#8569

syndr0me

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 1,682

im legitimately going to miss it if Tesla does go under, might have to spend my day doing actual work again

Quote

05-24-2019 , 03:12 PM

#8570

JKC

grinder

Join Date: Aug 2018 Posts: 548

I felt like low delivery number were getting priced in, but then musk comes out and implies good delivery numbers, and we're still red.

Confusing.

Guessing institutions are just done with the stock and there aren't enough r/teslainvestorsclub, TMC, and robinhood retailers out there to offset.

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05-24-2019 , 08:11 PM

#8571

synth_floyd

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 7,074

I hope Tesla does go bankrupt, Musk is removed, they become a division of GM or Honda or whomever and the brand and the cars live on.

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05-24-2019 , 11:18 PM

#8572

Didace

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2009 Posts: 20,394

Why?

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05-26-2019 , 09:57 AM

#8573

bbfg

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 12,264

That Morgan Stanley analist sounds like he's been a bear for years. He was a bull a few months ago?

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05-26-2019 , 10:40 AM

#8574

BooLoo

adept

Join Date: Oct 2013 Posts: 945

yes, but he is whatever the company needs him to be.
if there's money to be made as an underwriter, tesla is the greatest company in the world.
if their capital raise is a huge cluster**** and there are lawsuits coming in, they better get their story right.

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05-28-2019 , 12:27 AM

#8575

case3

adept

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 774

Looks like Elon is walking back to 75k deliveries for Q2. Figuring out how they were going to fraud their way to an 'acceptable' miss was the big puzzle lately, might not be an issue anymore. Really have no idea what their plan is now, or what pumps can bring it back to anything that can hold 200.

Buying more puts is starting to look worse as this falls. The SP likely has a clown floor even in BK that kills a lot of the value of puts, while a straight short is just about as good now as it was at 300.

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