And he still thinks it is a SpaceX bailout (at much lower valuation) or a zero by 2020.

What if he is wrong about the tech?

Those other things cited included talking to people who were working with Tesla after they split (MobilEye and Nvidia.) You think they might be biased? And of course that was all years ago.

Linette summed the call up better than I did: https://www.businessinsider.com/tesl...te-call-2019-5

So when is this margin call you folks were talking about going to happen? Musk was desperate to keep the stock price high because if he didn't he was going to be ruined by a margin call, right? 192 has to be low enough to trigger this margin call, right? How's that going to go down?

gonna be exciting! Can't wait.

The stock is down 40% on the year and 16% in the last week and you are desperately trying to pick out a piece of the bear thesis that hasn't come to pass yet? Sad.

Obviously the margin call level involves guesswork since Elon's total loan amount and margin requirements aren't known. Some people did guess $180-200 range but others were closer to $150 or even $100. What we do know is that it is coming at some point.

Some day Tesla is going to be a 0 and Keed will still be trying to poke the bears.

There's so much that the bears ITT focus on that is just conspiratorial nonsense that is never going to impact the stock price. Margin call conspiracy theories and the delusional notion that the SEC was secretly keeping a 50 billion dollar company from raising a billion bucks are two of the most hilarious examples.

And like I've always said, it certainly is possible that Tesla will fail and it for sure isn't the sort of company that I buy stock in. Very hyped large cap growth? Hard pass. But if it does fail it won't be because of super secret SEC conspiracies or margin call fantasies or what they named their 2nd level automation system. It will be because they either can't make enough cars or can't sell enough cars. That's it.

Obviously there has been plenty of discussion of how many cars they are selling.

How is a margin call a conspiracy? Its an inevitability. Elon uses his stock to secure hundreds of millions if not billions in loans. If that stock goes down far enough then we have a margin call. Its just a question of when.

Regarding the raise- obviously a key assumption was that Elon was not an idiot and would raise if he could before reality caught up with him- like he always had before.

Apparently he actually is just an idiot and decided to run Tesla into the ground instead of raising. Congratulations?

bears: why isn't he raising at $350?
elon: *raising at $240*
keeed: stupid bears, told ya elon's got this.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

It's as if the bulls still haven't noticed that Tesla is in the car business, which is very tough, low margin and rather cyclical.

hundreds of millions of loans? Against his 7 billion dollar stake in TSLA and his 15 billion dollar stake in SpaceX? I mean what the hell, man. He seems to have enough equity to cover that sort of loan.

https://ark-invest.com/research/tesla-valuation-model

And how much are those stakes worth as Tesla's share price decreases? Like I said, its just a question of when.

We don't know how much Elon has borrowed. Last disclosure I am aware of was $625 million in March 2017 against about 13 million pledged shares.

We don't know what his maximum margin is.

We don't know at what point his lenders won't accept more shares of Tesla or SpaceX as collateral.

You can play around with the numbers all you want but at some point the value of Elon's Tesla shares decrease enough that he will be liquidated.

This is a man who draws a minimal cash salary, lives an extravagant lifestyle, made tens of millions of purchases of Tesla and SpaceX in the last year, and mortgaged all 5 of his homes in December.

There are so many posts around the net of retail investors buying more with no logic behind it beyond "look how much their revenue is up since last year!"

Here's an xlsx of Arks valuation model for tesla:
https://github.com/TashaARK/ARK-Inve...aluation-Model

their "bear case" is tesla sells 1.7M cars in 2023. 3M is bull case:

"ARK expects 26.4 million EVs to be sold in 2023. In 2018 Tesla had 17% of the BEV market, 3 million vehicles in 2023 would shrink its market share to 11%, 1.7 million would be 6%"

They are only losing 6% market share when they had no competitors in 2018?

They are using 19% gross margin in 2018. In 2023, with significantly increases competition they expect Gross Margin to be 25-30%:

"
Tesla is guiding to an auto gross margin of 25%. Long term it should be able to achieve higher margins as traditional premium auto companies have ~20% margin, and car dealerships have ~15% margins. Tesla's direct sales model and service structure should be net positive for margins.
"

who do you think elon is trolling more with that wink? the bears or the bulls?

It's interesting. I was expecting something sophisticated in the model, but it essentially just picks the most optimistic scenario possible for every item and does napkin math on it.

I mean if SpaceX stays around at roughly the same valuation it seems hard to imagine that any debt in the hundreds of millions of dollars range could trigger a margin call even if TSLA went to 10 bucks a share. His stake in SpaceX is worth between 15-20 billion dollars!

And even ignoring his enormous SpaceX equity, this is more begging the question by Tesla bears. We know that Tesla is going to zero, so a margin call is inevitable. But even if the conclusion you're assuming is true -- that Tesla stock will fall to zero -- then the margin call is irrelevant. Who cares?

I know that you know that SpaceX's valuation is not reliable.

Glad you admit that the margin call is inevitable.

That Ark girl is smoking hot though. I'd totally make bad investments to have a shot with her

Time to dust this off for Keeed, who enjoys being wrong:
Margin calls are in fact standard, and they don't have to and often won't accept further collateral when bankruptcy is on the table. The just sell while they can. There's a reason Elon is mortgaging his houses for $60 million and embezzling money from SpaceX rather than just pulling out a few hundred million in cash on his hoarde of wealth. What multi billionaire mortgages their houses for $60 million?? He was turned down for more loans from his normal banks a while ago. In fact if the price drops more - if the scenario that Adam Jonas (hardly a bear) laid out on the call happens, a margin call is a certainty.

Not that it has anything to do with anything. It's just an interesting aside. SpaceX is also not liquid, and has troubles of its own, so its valuation is pretty irrelevant.

love these conspiracy theories, keep em coming man.

I'm riding this conspiracy down to $0

go away keed

I sold some monthly Jun 100 puts against a portion of my core short position, and now I'm wondering I'm actually going to get putted.

We should pour one out for that one man hedge fund that blew up on the move to 380 in nov/dec.

rip bro

keed just hasn't played enough Railway Tycoon.

If he does get close to a margin call, that'll be two companies he's been involved in that he's brought to the brink recently, are creditors really going to be interested in taking shares in another of his companies that's private and opaque, knowing how many other creditors are in line?