ty

I did the same thing to myself going all in on PDEX.

Agree with those estimates. We knew from Latrilife, Covfefe, DeanSheikh and other reports that Model 3 deliveries picked up back in April. InsideEVs numbers confirmed.

May is basically tracking the same as April or slightly higher in Texas and Colorado. As pointed out- rumor that all LA deliveries now going through MDR.

It won't be enough. Yes, it is a big QoQ increase but only because US Model 3 numbers were so horrendous in January/February.

Europe will be lower than Q1. 8 ships to Europe in Q1 with the last spilling over so practically 7. This quarter will be 4 plus the spillover. And some of those cars will go to inventory as order pages are still stating June delivery for all models in Europe.

China is a wild card but with the trade war very well may be a 0 for the last 6 weeks of the quarter.

S/X remain dead despite price cuts and incentives.

fwiw I'm at 78.5k deliveries for Q2. In addition to today's price cuts I expect more in June + free supercharging and other incentives to try to pump the last 15 days (again).

May is tracking better than April. USA is doing a bit better than expected but China and Europe worse.

The 78.5k is near the top of my range of 70-80k. If they beat or just miss 80k I believe the stock will pump even though the missed 90k, it's a big improvement from Q1 and they can say "See, we'll continue ramping and hit 360k".

I've seen this July pump/August dump thesis going around but I don't think an 80k delivery print will do much. The cult bulls' theses aren't based in reality so an 80k report will still disappoint them. And everyone else will know 80k means another loss and more cash burn.

One of the narratives I've seen from bots or cultists on twitter recently is that Elon didn't guide to a delivery number in Q1 so they've never missed on deliveries.

The lease offering will pump Q2 deliveries, im honestly wondering if some gaming of lessor accounting could help with profitability. Im not very well versed in lessor accounting, but I would love to hear from someone who is, specifcally ASC 842-30 for lessors.

I could read it, but i probably wont for a bit.

If they are classifying M3s as appreciating assets then their accounting for operating leases will undoubtedly be ****y.

There is some room to game present values, carrying values, and implied rates on sale/finance leases but I don't think it's enough to be material.

Yea, only U.S.

I think anything over 70k is going to see the stock green. I base that on nothing other than the stock being super beat up and some bears have been calling for 60k.

i think after elon's mail and the disastrous way the stock traded following the raise, cash burn will be much more looked at.
obviously delivery numbers are a factor, but product mix and asp will play a huge role.

lol, accounting for them as appreciating assets would be awesome

I think earnings actually matter now as well. They are producing enough volume now that people will question how much more margin improvement is actually possible. If they deliver 80k cars and still lose $500 million then it becomes that much harder for them to convince anyone they will ever sell cars profitably.

https://twitter.com/markbspiegel/sta...56170745790464

I don’t understand the transaction, should we expect another filing where he dumps them soon?

Not necessarily - he could just hand the shares over to Morgan Stanley pledged against his margin loan. This amount is very small though and may just be a trial balloon so people don't get spooked when he does more of these as the stock drops to make sure he doesn't get sold out.

Doesn’t make sense still unless it’s some sort of signaling, I think we see a sell order to follow

Whats the end game bear story? Like what happens to the cars and software if it goes bust? Like, is it a gamble to even buy a Tesla at this point?

My other question is: What percentage of the high end car market does Tesla have at this point? I suspect that they arent just stealing customers from Mercedes, BMW, etc but actually gaining new customers. If thats true, and Tesla does go busto, who will be there to pick up the low lying fruit? Also, as time goes on, I suspect there were only be more and more demand for good high end luxury EVS


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I'm happy that the trade has worked out for you, but its ridiculous horrible gambling to bet "most of your liquid" on tsla dropping by the end of the year after 4 years with a very very similar fundamental story and the resilient SP. You aren't the only one who can read twitter, yet the SP didn't move.

Odds that they stayed around 300 for 8 more months were waaaaaay too high for you to reasonably do that with "most of your liquid." Again, had they only had a 500m loss instead of 900m, which many bears were assuming, you'd still be sweating this very moment.

Have you been short for the past 4 years and basically shipped the rest in now? Ever heard the phrase, "the market can be irrational longer than you can stay solvent?"

I'm not denying the fundemental thesis, but that money management will prob see you go busto even with this win.

hard to tell.
what's the brand worth without musk? what is the 'musk-brand' even worth if tsla goes under?

there's a ton of debt and a ton of other liabilities (purchase commitments, warranties, lawsuits, lifetime supercharging)
in my view that makes the equity a clear 0, but people love the brand (at least for now) and someone might step in at some point pre bankruptcy and buy it.

the software is worthless.

Why do you say people love the brand? The brand has been destroyed thanks to Musk treating his customers like disposable ATM cards. US and Norwegian brand surveys have Tesla getting absolutely destroyed from 2018 to 2019 - from near the top to near the bottom in one year. He did the following:

- Had a reservations line and then cancelled it and made it a free-for-all, making people's $1000 essentially meaningless
- Promised a $35K car which was never delivered
- To add insult to injury, pushed refunds out to 63 days (45 business days) for no good reason at all.
- Failed to properly beta test his car, including in winter conditions
- Didn't build up service infrastructure such that cars were basically unusable if anything went wrong - and lots went wrong thanks to the hand line in the tent
- Has unstable/unsafe autopilot that's killed multiple people - which the company then blamed in PR
- Sold fraudulent FSD vaporware
- Set a delivery date and then cancelled over and over again on thousands of people, including those who traveled for hours
- Baselessly called a hero stranger a pedophile when he was criticized, half-ass apologized and then doubled down, including yelling at a reporter who didn't investigate his purely made-up claims of pedophilia.
- Commits fraud and lies and exaggerates constantly, enough that the mainstream sees him now as a bit shady.

You can see the effects of this with Model Y reservations - it was a total flop. Musk is now seen as more of a freak and weird dude, a bit of a conman who makes fairly crappy fun cars and can't get his **** together.

The brand is badly damaged. You've got some hardcore fanboys left but they've already bought their cars. The market for $40K+ cars just isn't that large and he can't make $35K profitably due to their cuckshow of disorganization.

Perhaps if it gets cheap enough someone can come in and find some value in the brand, but the brand surveys don't lie, Tesla is pretty badly though of at this point. I posted the US and Norwegian pure brand surveys, but here for example is What Car? UK for example:

The Tesla Model S came in last in a major survey ranking cars by how reliable they are

These kinds of issues have sunk many car makers. I can't even imagine how bad the Model 3 is given that they make it in a rush in a hand line in a tent. There's a reason no major car maker makes cars like that.

Alex Wice's (former?) opinion that Tesla are far ahead of competition in AI/autonomous driving seems to have been validated.

Not content with merely not being able to see giant trucks blocking the road and slamming into them, Tesla is now suggesting a lane change into the path of oncoming trucks at 70 miles/hours:



This is soon after making lane changes automatic (no longer requiring user input/validation). Previously described "truck lust" doesn't want to go away.

should have said 'some people' love the brand.
yeah, the company did all those things. by now i don't even know how he can lose these people. there is some value in that, whether bears like it or now.

that's why i said it's a question of what happens to those people if he leaves the company.

The only brand that matters is their mass market brand. It's destroyed. I don't quite understand the extent of it myself (I would not have expected them to drop 40 points in the US or to dead last in Norway among ALL automakers) but the surveys don't lie and the death of demand even with massive cuts seems to back it up.

Cross asset conference call today? So debt and equity meeting? Is this common? Seems like it would be but at the same time I’m struggling to understand how it could be a good thing

https://twitter.com/eteletubby/statu...660963840?s=21

The cars become relics. Someone will set up "service centers" to try to keep them running at outrageous prices. What happened to the Deloreans? The Tuckers? Car companies have died in the past.

Nobody is buying Tesla before bankruptcy, the mountain of debt and horrible cap structure will cause them to wait and pick over the scraps in a reorg.

There are other high end EVs - eTron, Taycan, iPace, etc. Tesla is already losing to these cars in parts of europe. Eventually they will lose to them everywhere because those cars are actually...built well...and have a viable service infrastructure.

Elon leaving/being forced out will just accelerate the process.