You're going to have to state the points you think are valid. Not gonna waste my time watching him.

Yes he is one of the core pumpers/internet Tesla personalities along with Zac and Jesse and ValueAnalyst. Also ARK but they actually manage money. GFilche is the kid who got to ask a bunch if questions on the conference call when Elon "went to youtube" because the questions were boring.

I'm not sitting through that crap either, but in the thirty seconds I listened to, I heard him parrot the "EXPONENTIAL" claim that Musk has used many times. I don't know why it cracks me up so much—just the idea that you can postpone the verdict on some issue that you're obviously wrong about by telling everyone that it's a fault of their intuition that they don't understand the power of exponentials. Like how the Model 3 production was actually on pace because it was about to go EXPONENTIAL and suddenly they'd have 5k a week by the end of 2017.

All of these guys thought $420 funding secured was real and had zero doubt (just like heltok, bulrathi, etc in this thread). Consider that for a second. Their minds are gone so deep into cult-like Elon love and everything they say is worthless. Why waste time considering what they say? They're not sane and they can't evaluate simple evidence correctly like the odds of $420 funding secured released on Twitter being a lie - how can they possibly evaluate Musk's autonomous driving claims??

It's absolutely fascinating watching a conman and his cult slappies mind-**** even sane people who know he's a conman into considering that he might just pull off the impossible (fully self driving by next year). The chance is purely zero that they will have level 3 next year deployed, let alone level 4, let alone level 5. The odds are zero they will have autonomous robotaxis bringing in money. The odds are zero that Teslas will appreciate. This is just a con, and Musk is the master of doing superficially plausible sounding cons. Let's review the conman's statements, shall we?

Buyout: "$420 funding secured"
Buyout: "The only thing in doubt is the shareholder vote"
Autonomy: First FSD features coming in "3 months possibly, 6 months definitely" - January 2017
Autonomy: "Full autonomy within two years" - 2016
Autonomy: "Drive LA to New York autonomously in 3 to 6 months" - February 2018 after missing his 2017 claim
Production: "5000/week by the end of 2017"
Production: "What people should have zero concern about, and I mean zero, is that we will make 10,000 cars per year in 2018" - 2017 as they were failing to meet their target
Production: "Alien dreadnaught", "machine that builds the machine", "air friction limited robots", "car line faster than walking speed", "massive efficiencies on M3 that other car companies can't compete with due to full automation", "need strobe lights to see the robot"
Profitability: "Won't need to raise ever again" - said since 2012
Profitability: "Profitable all quarters going forward" - said since 2012
Service (as servicing massively failed due to the cuck's total lack of planning): "Most issues fixed in under an hour". "Order of magnitude improvement". Blames others for Tesla not providing needed parts.

Now (as demand dies from ****ty quality, horrible service, and his robot line big dream failing): "1 million autonomous robotaxis on the roads in 2020 earning $100K/each for their owners"
Now: "Tesla cars will become more valuable with time goes by half an order of magnitude [5x]"
Now (to investors on the raise): "Tesla will become a $500 billion company [soon] from autonomy"

He's definitely getting more desperate and deranged. Ironically as the lies get bigger, people are more inclined to think he might have something. It's a fascinating masterclass in being a conman and the stupidity of people. Alex Wice is caught hook line and sinker and backed a fraud/pure conman with >$100K.

What kind dickhead do you need to be to assume that anything that comes out Musk's mouth has a greater than 0% chance of being attached to reality/not a con? It's blowing my mind that you guys are taking his last desperate attempts to keep the stock price up as anything more than 0% probability of being real.

every time he says 'assuming' or 'musk says' i want to buy more puts.

TS and others. Thanks for the answers. I also agree with you all that he is regurgitating musk BS , but gfilche sounds so enthused it makes me wonder for half a second maybe this chip is the real thing and I'm missing something , but for like half a second. This is gonna end up being a weeklong episode of American greed.

Wait, you're talking about the chip? Good lord.

This isn't a chip speed or design problem and if it was, nVidia, Intel and Google would have them smoked, considering this chip was built from off-the-shelf parts.

Not only that, but some bearded cuck on Youtube with a flamethrower in the background and a "hyper change" cap and a MUSK shirt - who was buying at $360 - has got this figured out? I'm dying man.

Ya if you need convincing go flip through @Gfilche and @ValueAnalyst1 on twitter

cliffs: 1) $TSLA is always always always a strong buy; 2) subscribe to my youtube(Gali) or patreon(valueanalyst) to see more

sad story but relevant:

I believe Tesla is self insured as well.

They are saying it's very similar to the first autopilot death from a few years ago.

They had years to fix that issue but haven't?

How many lives would be saved if Tesla had a popup warning that said:

Tesla autopilot is very unreliable and cannot detect stationary objects on the road. It is guaranteed to slam you and your car into stationary objects on the road at full speed without braking at over 60 miles per hour. Please exercise extreme caution when using autopilot. Also, we will have level 5 full autonomous driving ready for your robotaxi in 8 months! Available for preorder. Buy now! Only $5000 and definitely coming in 3 to 6 months.

But then Musk would sell less FSD fraud and have less stock pumping ability. He's literally killing people for his own prestige and to maintain his billionaire lifestyle.
It can't be fixed. Tesla's self driving hardware and software can't differentiate between overpasses, signs and trucks. They have been unable to solve this problem in over three years since the first accident. But they'll have fully solved level 5 autonomy in 8 months.

The basic problem is that if they turn on stationary object detection, Teslas will slam to a stop for overpasses and signs as it can't tell the difference. Their crack software team haven't been able to solve this problem in 3 years despite current cars supposedly having "all the hardware necessary for FSD".

this is so insane to me. it's like every member of the tesla cult happens to have 6+figs in cash available and are willing to dump it all into the stock at a moment's notice

How are the people in that guys situation not class action lawsuit?

Are they not?

Watched a bit of the video.

Likeable dude, and talented. Holy **** though he's in a cult.

Elon will now personally approve all expenses going forward (instead of $1m+), states that Tesla has 10 months of cash left at current burn rate.

https://electrek.co/2019/05/16/tesla...ing-elon-musk/

Why is this not over?

He'll tweet Chapter 11 confirmed from the cockpit of a rocket.

Between this and the autopilot death, how is the stock not down huge today?

Maybe I've been spending too much time on twitter but it feels like we're close to a tipping point where the stock should half in a week or something.

I want to double my short position tomorrow.

It will stay afloat through smoke and mirrors until 2nd quarter numbers are out. Then it will drop like a rock. Unless FSD is engaged before that, then it's to the moon.

Kind of lost here without models for the following scenarios:

-FSD/Robotaxi fantasy takes a medium+ level hit (Karpathy leaves/accident press/US Govt action)

-Q2 comes in at 70k (channel stuffing etc to get them out of decreasing print), another 500m+ loss

-Elon falls into medium+ trouble again (SEC/personal lawsuits/etc)


Does the SP just enter into a float in the ~180 range if one of these hit until the next blow comes? I don't really have a 'slow' demise plan even though it seems pretty clearly the most likely overall sequence. The only real trading plan I have is to jump on any squeeze/pump that can hit 250+ and simply short for size again.

I don’t think it’s possible to assign reasonable probabilities to risks like 1 and 3 of your list. Imo best to just set them aside knowing there is some amount of below the surface risk in your favor.

Ballpark of 2 seems pretty likely to happen, which should be a disaster but the stock price isn’t really based in reality so who knows what the range would be. If people are really valuing FSD as a big part of the current valuation then it’s not necessarily that big a deal that they happen to also run a money losing car company. That’s not my view of the situation but at this point nothing would surprise me.

Consider at this point:

Exhibit A:

- Their software can't navigate city roads. Has zero autonomous testing miles
- It just decapitated yet another driver because it can't spot a giant truck across the road - a problem they haven't fixed in 3 years since the last decapitation.
- The CEO is a known liar and fraud
- The CEO just sent an email requiring every outgoing invoice - even for toilet paper - to be signed by the CFO personally and 1/10th by the CEO himself

Exhibit B:

- "We will have fully self driving feature complete in 8 months."
- "We will have 1 million autonomous robotaxis on the road in 2020 earning $100K/year for each owner"
- "The value of your car will go up half an order of magnitude [5x]"

TS got me spooked enough to say ok, let me sit this out for a week. Well, my opinion has updated a bit, even though I think TS is wrong on some parts, overall the picture for Tesla is not as appealing as I once thought. I thought they had some termites... but not at this level.

Now that I've waited, this week there were just too many additional red flags for me to feel comfortable. Even though I think there will be a huge boon of value to the industry overall and very few players will capture the lions share (which represents a super +ev situation), I'm still sitting on the sidelines for now -- I may or may not jump back in. For now I will continue to reevaluate. I don't think it's going to suddenly leap into bonanza territory any time soon... so I have plenty of time to feel out where Tesla really stands anyways. Thanks TS for saving me a bunch of money.

Nothing wrong with getting a better price on your bull thesis!

They're clearly in deep and unchanging demand death, hence the drastic cost cutting and the absolutely absurd situation where Musk has decreed that the CFO has to approve every single payment going out. Even the bulls who believe Musk's "cash flow positive in Q3 onward" have got to be going "WTF" at this email. He's smart enough to know this will affect the stock at these lows which means the cash situation really is that awful even after the raise that they need to do drastic things like this.

The Autopilot restrictions in Europe + this accident hitting the news aren't good either and make a bit of a mockery of autonomous taxis in 2020.

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/thre...5#post-3666082

That forum is gold.