15 May - 02:26:51 PM [RTRS] (TSLA.O) - T. ROWE PRICE CUTS SHARE STAKE IN TESLA BY 81.3% TO 1.7 MLN SHARES

TSLA is basically flat over the last 5 years. Down significantly compared to any index. And of course Tesla never came close to turning a profit in those 6 years but instead continually raised more and more money on ever-changing narratives.

How/when will TSLA turn around if you agree 2019 will continue to be negative?

There are sane bulls out there. The view, imo, is that TSLA (and similarly BTC), despite logic X and fundamental Y, has enough of a shot at being transcendent to be worth betting on. They are more than just the industries they delve in or their product/service in a vacuum. There's always the unforeseen too...

Attracting is one thing, keeping is another.

What are the chances none of these companies have safe driverless cars on the road within 3 years?

95%. The 5% will be strictly geo-fenced and pre-mapped and approved areas only. Like self-driving cars around disneyland, but think cars/buses in vegas/convention center areas and things like that.

0% chance for anywhere to anywhere full Level 5 with nobody in driver's seat within 3 years.

That's 5-10 years at best.

100%. Google and Waymo already have safe driverless cars on the roads, running autonomous taxi services for employees and early adopters in multiple cities in all traffic situations and roads. Spurious is reduced to flat out lying when he says stuff like this:
LIDAR cars even two years ago crashed less than the average driver, and today they are near flawless - last year had one minor incident that was the fault of the car driving autonomously, vs 29 ones caused by other drivers mostly lightly scraping the fleet as is standard in San Francisco.

Peak cuck achieved?



It doesn't show on the screenshot but he has $537 left in his account. I'm dying.

Someone on Twitter found that gold but anyone who doesn't read the Tesla Motors Club Forums really should...you'll get a great picture of how insane the baggies are. Also great and real information on the comitragically bad autopilot, service, reliability issues, etc etc from actual owners

Waymo trying to merge onto the freeway.

If we agree 100% no one has safe driverless cars on the road in 3 years, why are we comparing Tesla to anyone? Will Elon-lead Tesla be around in 3 years?

I misread your statement. It's 100% that Google and Waymo will have safe driverless cars in 3 years. It's 0% that Tesla will. For the same reason that I know they won't have Tesla Operating System that runs on all PCs, or human level AI. Stuff takes time to build and longer to test and they haven't even started on a viable platform/technical direction.

A lot of my work is with various companies that support software for the auto industry, including ADAS and full self driving systems, which involve a lot of big names that you have heard about from Japan, Germany, and the USA. I assist in patent procurement and also submit reports to companies on analysis on the state of the industry with respect to ADAS and autonomous vehicle systems.

To study the state of the industry, I review patent portfolios for various companies including Tesla for analyzing the trends of the industry and the landscape of innovation in these areas and I attend various talks in Silicon Valley as well as Detroit and across the Midwest.

That is what I base my opinion on.

Would be glad to hear what your specialty is in the industry and your explanation as to why I am wrong as I am always open to hearing it for my own professional benefit.


Like TS stated, I could foresee Google/Waymo having a safe autonomous system in a closed and limited environment involving smart city systems or networked highways though I think three years is too soon. Probably 5-10 years.

IMO general and safe FSD is at least 20 years away, if not 40 despite what the optimists say. For a reference point, we can't even safely automate trains yet and that should be several orders of magnitude easier.

So yeah, ~100% that nobody will have safe driverless cars on the road within 3 years.

I also kind of misread the question too; I had assumed fully accessible to the public and fully deployed.

If we're talking about being capable of being deployed safely in beta testing with limited public access, then yeah, Waymo already has autonomous taxis in limited deployment for beta testing, and several Japanese companies already have autonomous buses in closed or semi-open beta testing for some members of the public.

What does it even look like for a Tesla if Google perfects FSD and Tesla isn't even close? Leasing the software on a per unit basis?

Seems like their whole premise is based on being a leader in FSD

This is a fascinating disconnect, although maybe it's the nature of the question. Waymo and GM already have very safe driverless cars driving complex cities and highways, able to be called at will to go anywhere to anywhere in a large area. I mean, we have the data. So the question:

has an answer of 0% (100% will) as it exists right now.

Suitable for very wide public deployment in initial goefenced areas? Possibly with some caveats like suboptimal (but not unsafe) behavior where they drive like a cautious 80 year old and like an ultra safe professional chauffeur most of the time.

Suitable for very wide deployment everywhere? Not for quite a while.

Yeah, different interpretations of the question. Eventually, Waymo will have some sort of system available where you can engage an autonomous mode because the vehicle detects that it is within a smart city or networked highway. I don't think Waymo will do it purely off of local software and sensors in the vehicle regardless of how well mapped the environment is to them, but maybe they will rush out that implementation first in <5 years although I don't see why they would hurry to do so.

My guess is they will deploy data transmission systems or edge computing systems all around a city or environment that they have worked out thoroughly and use that to supplement their autonomous systems so that their vehicles are always networked to the smart city/networked highway to ensure safety, since they are doing a lot of development in that area too.

Why is this necessary? They navigate just fine with on-car censors. The edge cases seem like things that aren't helped by smart roads. For example the merging above where the cutting-in driver flummoxes the system. How do smart sensors help with that?

Interesting day/evening in Teslaland.

-Elon trying to raise more money for SpaceX off the Starlink satellites launch. Lies, lies, lies.
-Dave Arnold out as senior director of comms. Replacement is in her early 30s and an internal promotion (see the pattern?)
-Tesla going to send out an OTA update to address battery fires "out of abundance of caution" (what is the update exactly? how will that address problem if it is a manufacturing or design defect? are they just pushing the batteries too fast with the supercharging update?)
-Solar being wound down? Giga2 now going to pivot towards non-solar products.

It isn't necessary, but it does help solve a lot of problems more effectively than a local vehicle can.

It's really for addressing sensor failure or environments such as fog/snow/rain that can mess up how the local vehicle interprets some situations rather than the situation that you mention.

For example, for navigating from point A to point B the vehicle should know its location to a very high precision (within say, 20cm) or you can have strange cases where the vehicle thinks it's in a different lane or different road than it actually is in. GPS does not provide such precision, GPS + local sensors + database of the road can do it in most circumstances but there are still situations in which even that is not sufficient (e.g., sensor failure, roads are snow covered, heavy fog, etc.). With edge systems or V2V systems involving transmissions from other vehicles that can instruct the vehicle of waypoints regarding the location of the vehicle with respect to the waypoint, you can solve that problem a lot better than the local vehicle can by itself.

Are we really going to wait for v2v and smart roads? Los Angeles can't even fix the potholes.

And Waymo is still having trouble with LIDARs not seeing far enough for left turn/texas highways where the oncoming traffic is flying in from the other direction too quickly. It's fine for Arizona, but even there every Waymo vehicle still has a safety driver and they're technically "in-deployment".

Yea, this is what I meant. What Elon is saying Tesla will do.

Who cares if Tesla is ahead or behind Waymo if they are out of money before anyone figures it out.

Since Tooth answered 100% to a question that Mori and Proto answered 0% to, let me restate it in a Sklanskyesque way to make it less vague:

When is the soonest year that you predict that half of adult residents in El Paso, Texas, will be able to summon a driverless vehicle (via an app, like Uber) to their home that can then drive them to the airport?

5-10 seems to be the optimistic guess, with 20 being the pessimistic, as far as insiders go.

2027. El Paso is not going to be 3D-Mapped anytime soon. The early uses for this will be places like Vegas that have already been 3D and radar mapped on all major roads, integration with streetlights is already completed, and specific programming has been done based on actual trials (with a safety driver).

True Elon-Musk promised anywhere to anywhere in USA without pre-mapping, geo-fencing, or a safety driver is a very long way away. Just no chance within 3 years.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e93z4pL0Y8E&t=1020s

Is this GFilche kid at hyperchange drinking the kool aid 100% (not to mention all the comments) or am I off here that he might have some valid points ?