80% chance that Tesla can't raise money according to tooth sayer. Hate it when those 4-1 longshots come in.

God this is funny. Go through the logic again. This is a claim that there is at least a 20% chance that they can't raise.

Let me put that into language.

The probability that Musk wouldn't raise when he desperately needs to is less than 80%.

In other words, the probability of the opposite (that Musk is blocked from raising) is >20%.

Thus an 80% outcome came in when it turned out they could raise. LOL @ you, this is a pretty hilarious logic fail. Thanks for quoting me and proving my point about how careful and probabilistic the bear thesis was.

In reality, even though I was careful in the post you so kindly quoted (thanks for making me look good? That was kind of you), I put the odds at around 50% they can't raise, exactly as I said.

"The assumption being that he's not insane and that M3 demand is as high as he claims"

The assumptions turned out to be false. That's what you should be flaming him for.

It doesn't change the bear case, but it extends the time frame at least 6 months. And that is a lot of time for a guy like Musk to come up with a scheme that drags it out another 6 months...

That tweet about the prospectus is nice

I'll certainly admit I didn't do more than skim this post this morning. You believed in your delusional conspiracy theory at a confidence of fifty percent, though? Still pretty bad man.

more about the raise from the WSJ:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB1005017850485007360

(credit @TheAdaptedMind on twitter)

Delusional conspiracy theory? How do you figure a 50% probability of a somewhat common event as "delusional conspiracy theory"? Companies get blocked from raising all the time when the SEC investigates fraud or there's MNPI they don't want to disclose.

For one, we don't know whether they could raise back then and now had it lifted. The SEC had active investigations and in August he committed again massive securities fraud. Musk himself claimed they were "single digit weeks from dying" which is impossible if they could raise. So either Musk deliberately lied about his company about to die, and all the desperate actions he took for that - like building a tent line out of scap or letting servicing die and killing his brand - or the thesis was correct.

The thing which put the odds down below 50% for me was Clayton's incredible weakness in the face of securities fraud. I said as much at the time. If the SEC chair is willing to intervene to let that go, it seems unlikely he'd allow the SEC to prevent a raise.

Everything was highly rational in the thesis and the thing I gave the higher probability to came in. Looks like a whole lot of winning to me.

For my personal analysis I modeled the situation extensively with pages of formulas. I had 30% odds of "can't raise". This is a small section of a complicated mathematical model I did in March at $280 to price option probabilities at various strikes and times to find the best plays. I don't post this stuff here because there are too many undeserving cucks who go after me, but I'll throw back the curtain for a minute to show you how intelligent people analyze outcomes rationally:



We're currently in the highest probability segment of "demand death".

Not updating guidance for Q2 and 2019 deliveries prior to this raise is going to be nuts, but you know they wont

Probably worth pointing out Tesla Shanghai got 500m commitment from Chinese banks and can most likely get the other 1.5 billion from the same Chinese banks.

Tesla internally at least thinks it's still growing.

from what i read on twitter, zach talked like one time on the call with underwriters and that was to reiterate q2 delivery guidance. otherwise it was elon selling autonomy

The other part of the can't raise thesis was that if Elon actually can raise its on horrible terms. Lets see how this plays out.


Edit: Sounds like Elon is pushing Autonomy hard as the reason for needing money which is strange since Autonomy Day was a flop and its obvious they need to burn the cash to survive. Also reiterated guidance. Won't these lies be revealed in the next two months? What is the endgame here? I know Elon lied before to get money but it was always more forward looking. Is this his last shot?

Elon about to launch another rocket. Also, going to launch this stock as a metaphorical rocket.

I chuckled

I'm not going to cover. It's clear that the converts and equity will be issued at a strike lower than today's close, so the stock should go down. All this does is remove BK from the equation, but still, it's absurd when you consider that a stock price of 120 is still 21b+ in market cap in view of failing demand.

So they bring net working capital to zero. How do they address cash flow?

Luckily I decided not to go for crash puts until July and I already rolled my 2019 puts so patience paid out I guess.

Yes I also got a little lucky in that I sold my Jan 2020 crash puts earlier this week. June 2020s still down quite a bit.

July/August 200s down bigly but when Q2 comes in way below guidance I still feel like those are live.

Feels like should be adding more here but don't want to end up way overweight.

Also not covering. Adding at 250 if it ever sees it.

Not covering shares but sold my aug 19 200s I got a ways back and were tracking nicely until now

Interesting developments:

1. They just increased the size of the raise. Obviously incredibly desperate for cash/near bankruptcy without it.

2. Musk remains one of the greatest conmen of our generation, treating Wall Street like the donkey as he puts a carrot-painted turd in front of Wall Street bankers:

Current Tesla will be worth $250K in three years. Love the "order of magnitude" mention again - previous "order of magnitude" mentions include robotic speed (outcome: 1980s hand line in tent), service speed (outcome: can't get Teslas fixed for months). And it continues: I love the balls on this guy as he goes even deeper in to pure fraud (his balls are almost as big as Elizabeth Holme's):
People that are 5+ years ahead "can't catch up". This is great stuff. Also love the selling of the "proprietary chip" as an advantage.

More:

He's up there with Madoff, Holmes and Skilling in the amount of bull**** he can spew and have people with money believe it. He's not quite Ron Hubbard level but he's getting close.

A recap from this last massive fraud to see where we are on the massive fraud timeline:

Musk was just investigated by the SEC. The SEC is pretty inept but I doubt they are so inept they missed a fraud that large.

I don't think this is a reasonable take. They missed Madoff - a $50 billion ponzi - over decades despite whistleblowers, impossible returns, and several actual investigations.

As for Musk, the staff wanted to remove him as director but Jay Clayton personally intervened. Musk must have him in his pocket. Such is life when you're a billionaire.

Congratulations on your sweet bottom pick long. A bit of luck too but it seems it was nice timing.

TY. Luck always helps even if the odds are in your favor.

Also, I would argue that Madoff carried far more credibility than Musk which is why the investigations were so fruitless. Lots of people think Musk is a fraud (I mean look at this thread).

I know zero about the fundamentals here. Trade was based solely off me seeing tons about TSLA going broke on twitter and then I saw tons on it here. Prompted me to look at it more. Don't plan on holding this trade for more than 3 months so all of you could still be right. At this point we need to squeeze some shorts though I think.

Edit: Also, everything in my body wants me to take some profit off the table here bc up 7 or 8%. Usually that intutition is wrong so I'm holding. Maybe get a good Monday and take some off or something. Think we can at least fill that gap at 285 if we can get back inside its range. Also, likely trend followers shorting on breakout so adds fuel to fire if we get more of a squeeze.

https://old.reddit.com/r/teslamotors..._for_my_close/

I'm going full in on drinking the Kool-Aid. I just placed an order for three Model 3 SR+ cars for my close family members with the hope that they appreciate in value and that I can put them on the Tesla Network.

My plan is to let them use the cars for free until I can put them on the network and then they can still use them as their daily transport after then.

If the cars truly appreciate in value, I may just sell the cars and not worry about ride sharing.

at least a lot of ppl commenting are saying this maybe isn't that great of an idea, but still... there are people like this who really exist and are real people

Of course there are. Tens of thousands of people believe a mentally ill 1960s science fiction writer when he says that personal issues are caused by the residual souls of people blown by up hydrogen bombs a trillion years ago by an evil galactic warlord.

Why wouldn't people believe that a guy with a cool rocket company who's delivered on lots of stuff that people thought impossible, is telling the truth when he says he'll do something amazing with autonomous cars next year?

It's really that simple when it comes to retail baggies and Tesla fans. People are dumb and trusting and in love with Elon, some of whom see him as their personal Jesus/nerd ambassador.

For me Musk continuing to back down on his crazy robotaxi claims & that Teslas will be worth 200-300k in the future is what made me 100% convinced he is either completely crazy or a conman.

Everything he claimed before that, you could argue it was somewhere between being highly optimistic, being a slightly crazy visionary, or needing to learn to stfu when you are under influence of whatever.

But imo there is a 0% probability that he isn't either (1) completely crazy or (2) fully realizes that his robotaxi claims are completely bull ****.



And I also thinks he deserves to be challenged on it by the SEC or whoever. While it is quite easy to say it's bull **** with a financial background, there are a lot of people who believe Elon Musk is the Einstein of our time, and people who believe that Tesla self-driving is the best in the industry (I saw a poll recently of people looking to buy a car, and Tesla crushed the competition wrt self-driving reputation). Them being led to believe that Teslas are a great investment, is not too far from being the victim of a scam.