One isn't, one is. The broke retail baggies are loading up like crazy on this stock. Image posted before but live data here.

https://robintrack.net/symbol/TSLA
Why would take a trade you don't love and scale out quickly? Sounds like a recipe for a hammering. You ride the downside and fail to capture any of the big upside.

I only don't love it because of what I perceive will be overall weakness in the market.

I like it from a sentiment standpoint and there is a momentum divergence. Pretty much a bread and butter trade. Odds are in my favor but its not a bet the ranch trade.

Pretty sure it's true. After the accident other drivers of the route filmed their autopilot leading them straight to the divider in that same spot.

I don't know about US law but English common law torts would still find the company liable even with these facts, although the damages might be reduced. This was reasonably foreseeable any way you slice it and they contributed it to by overhyping their tech and failing to appropriately warn.

Found these on the twitter:

How much has Robinhood's user base increased in that time?

Funds like Fidelity, T Rowe Price, and others have been selling to retail bagholders like RH for months. Keep in mind the avg number of shares held on RH is probably 1-10.

While it might bounce here, the only thing saving it is a miracle capital raise at decent terms. While I expect a raise (IF they can), I expect it will be very painful and at least 15% below for equity, which is very bearish.

If they don't raise they likely have ~90 days for really painful cash crunch.

I don't think it matters in this context.

Of course it matters

It was also noted that this section of divider was already damaged from a previous crash.

The sick part of my brain assumes it was another Tesla.

You mean the logical part?

RH increased from 5 to 6 million users from May to July last year. I see the 6 million userbase quoted as recent as 4/19, but no further updates. They could easily be at 10mm users. Or anything in between obv

If the argument is that institutions are selling to dumb retail, how does it matter?

Are you saying that the dumb retail are just buying on robinhood instead of other platforms, therefore it could be at the same # of dumb retail holders as before?

I'm more interested in the mentality of dumb retail than the quantity of dumb retail buying on Robinhood. An increase in Robinhood users/dumb retail investors isn't the same as a change in what dumb retail thinks of the stock. Both are relevant but they're obviously different measures.

It's much more compelling to me if the user base stayed the same while Tesla holders doubled than if Tesla holders increased at the same rate as the user base.

You could also compare the change in TSLA ownership to the change in a basket of stocks. Or compare it to other popular Robinhood bubble stocks like marijuana.

That's fair, we were trying to draw different conclusions. I should have stated what I was thinking about.

I'm skeptical that a bunch of retail is on the other side just full on believing everything musk is saying, then buying 2 shares here, 3 shares there, propping the stock up... but there seems to be some evidence of that.

Makes it even worse that the SEC isn't reigning musk in. The little guy that can't or doesn't know how to research could get hammered because they are believing what the CEO says.

I'd imagine a lot of Tesla car owners are also stockholders, so the majority of dumb retail volume for this stock isn't people on Robinhood buying 2 shares. These are people who can afford $50k-$100k+ cars.

But if Robinhood is buying the dip, so are a lot of the morons with a Tesla and a stock $500k portfolio.

I hope I'm not cursing this trade by putting words like "dumb retail" and "morons" on permanent record.

I don't put a lot of stock into the retail investor hypothesis. I do think there is some chance that the relatively low effective float makes TSLA particularly susceptible to random news but I don't think it's sufficient to explain how TSLA has managed to maintain 40+ billion market cap for so long.

The fact TSLA has such high institutional ownership (a pretty diversified group too with a lot of funds) without S&P 500 membership (meaning no index fund ownership) indicates there is a lot of institutional interest in owning TSLA even at current ridiculous valuation.

https://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/tsla/i...ional-holdings

Most recent 13F filings. There is (was?) a lot of institutional interest.

For the record I don't either, but I find it interesting. I'd be curious to see if there's any alpha in the Robin hood data in general

stop acting so fishy

Motor efficiency is a big one. Tesla's motor is straight up better and cheaper than the ipace's and everyone's EV out there. The battery is cheaper and less prone to cell failure too.

Sandy Munro explains the motor efficiency in autoline 447 (1/3/2019). Tesla's magnets are arranged in a Halbach array with 4 magnets of different polarity glued and twisted together in a single piece. Everybody else is using 2 or more pieces.

Those are the institutional holders as of 12/31. You can see on that table that the biggest shareholder, T. Rowe Price, cut their stake in half in Q418.

TRowe went on to sell 92% of their shares in Q1. They are probably completely out now. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-t...-idUSKCN1RU05W

The third biggest holder, Fidelity, has been reducing its stake for years but accelerated selling in Q1. They were down to 5.24 million shares at end of March. I suspect they were big sellers in April as well. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...hares-in-march

The Saudi Public Investment Fund was a new investor in 2018 but they reportedly hedged their entire stake after hours on January 17 the day before Tesla announced layoffs (what timing!) https://www.reuters.com/article/us-t...-idUSKCN1PM1ZV

Vanguard, State Street, and Blackrock are ETFs.

That leaves Baillie Gifford and Jennison as the active funds with significant stakes. Both have been in Tesla for a long time but were buyers throughout 2018 (and Baggy Gifford into 2019) so TSLA is likely now below their average price. It will be interesting to see if they too cut their losses or if they average down all the way to zero like those clowns at ARK.

A lot of big money shorts said they'll cover on this outcome:
Stock up 3.5%.

I covered premarket, been a fun ride guys. May take a smaller short position long term depending on how high it pops in the next few weeks.

But the death spiral, running out of cash thesis is dead. And they proved they can raise so will do it again when they miss Q2 and need more cash by Q4.

It's an awful company but in this market anyone can raise money, this charade can go on and on.

huh, I was told on good authority that Tesla was unable to raise capital. Weird.