Any 20-25k estimates include China/EU. And are predicated on the 10k in transit at EOQ and Zachy Boy's statement on conference call that April was trending to highest first month of quarter ever.

US will be much lower which is what InsideEVs estimates. I would guess 8.5k 3s and 1-1.25k S/X combined.

Yes the 23k includes eu/china and all models. I'd say closer to 19k so maybe in the middle at 21k.

Unless they pull some crazy levers (more price cuts, etc) May will be lower than April. So give them 40k April/May, they are going to do 50k in June to meet the 90k min elon stated? Just lol.

The "last 10 day push" last quarter included Euro backlog and cheaper M3 - there will be no backlog this quarter and there is little room to cut M3 prices again.

I'd give them 75k Q2 deliveries at best, all regions and models.

Happy for you man man, I feel like plenty of meat still on the bone

Forget Musk's antics, dubious management skills and strategic decisions, questionable sales and customer service or quality issues. The biggest problem is that there simply isn't enough demand for their hyper growth stock valuation.
And that has always been the real bear case.

Also, they do have a data advantage over other autonomous driving companies, so it's embarrassing that those companies are ahead of them.

The bear case was three-pronged, explicitly stated several times earlier and tracked/predicted with hard data a month before it reflected in the stock price. Was very robust and highly rational and data/market awareness model driven.

1. Market isn't large enough for $50K+ cars to sell the volume they claimed they'd build
2. They lose lots of money in the lower pricing tiers given the cost of batteries, on which they have no advantage
3. They generally suck at building the top of the car and at logistics.

One of my favorite things about this stock is how the dumbest retail baggies have crushed it, at least until the end of the 2018. They were buying low, selling high with great skill. I suspect they're becoming the baggies now though as that pattern breaks down. Record retail highs on RobinHood.

I have very similar positions and naked shares short

Not really $tslaq won’t be happy till sub 50

Not that I think it matters a ton, but the SEC pretty much rolled over like the pussies they are and said going forward musk just can’t tweet about financial and production guidance. The baggies will declare victory I’m sure

It was up 1% after hours on the SEC news, I expect a little pump on Monday but probably not over $250, which used to be key support but now will be pretty big resistance.

The 10Q next week will be interesting - can see where some of this revenue came from and the breakdown of the large payables (are they just not paying bills?). Also if there are any new disclosures that might allow them to capital raise.

Also April deliveries. 8-10k headstart from cars paid for in Q1 but not delivered until April. Interestingly, those cars sold in Q1 but not delivered are included in the end of Q1 cash balance, which is much higher than the average daily cash balance of the quarter.

I will say 21k April deliveries. Anything with a 1-handle is a disaster and anything above 23k will be seen as bullish (but still a crazy stretch to get to 90-100k for the quarter).

I might start adding at $220

I think you are way off assuming you mean US deliveries

It seems like a huge win for Elon on the surface, and yes the SEC rolled over like the pussies they are, but I'm not sure it's necessarily good for the stock.

In theory, this really handicaps Elon's greatest PR weapon and if we believe that it's mostly retail baggy, buy the dippers holding this thing up - the kind who are easily influenced by $420 tweets and FSD/Robotaxi lies - this could be really bad for the stock in the coming weeks.

Also, if we see continued selling next week I think there's about a 0% chance Elon will be able to contain himself so there could be serious punishments coming now that it's clearly defined what he's not allowed to do.

But we'll see how this plays out... reasonable chance it turns out to be mostly irrelevant.

No, that is global. The highest 1st month of a quarter so far was 21.5k on Oct 2018 and Zach on the conf call said April is beating that so far.

There were 10k in transit at the end of March but otherwise April seems low. I think 23k globally is a fair estimate. May will likely be worse as there is no carryover. The S/X refresh will not help much it seems. June will have an "end of quarter push" but there is no backlog like in Q1 so this should come up short as well.

April: 23k
May: 20k
June: 35k (After MORE price cuts and free robotaxi network and other hype for last 15 days push)

So I give them 78k total Q2 Deliveries. Just lol at elon's 90-100k.

I didn't even think of that. Start selling robotaxi network access at $5k/car and then give it away for free w/ FSD $5k purchase for the next end of quarter push. People are more than dumb enough to fall for that.

They are going to pre-sell anything and everything they can think of - in fact that will be the spin when they miss Q2 deliveries - "That's why we didn't have a last 15 days push this quarter - We are so laser-focused on FSD that we're ok not focusing on selling cars as the rest will just join our robotaxi fleet and make revenue next year..."

Bears are celebrating a bit early, aren't they? The stock is still at $235. Presumably, when you are a bear, you can just say "stock price" and still be wrong, while as a bull, you can't say stock price despite being right.

Agree with spurious. Everyone high fiving and congratulating each other here is reminiscent of heltok congratulating himself after the $420 tweet.

The bears had a good week but this is far from over. If you were a bear and closing positions now while declaring victory, you weren't ever an actual bear. I don't expect fireworks in the immediate future unless the margin calls start snowballing.

Thinking about buying despite knowing nothing about tsla. This much fist-pumping is kind of lol.

Lots of jealous Musk haters methinks.

Edit: I'll let you know if and when I buy plus the size and price so you guys can call me a baggie. Whatever the **** that means.

There is fistpumping because it's a pretty big milestone. It broke a 2.5 year trading range that bulls had total confidence in the support - "trading range bro, stock price bro" etc.

It's down from 380 (when most of us were puking over the peak fraud of "$420 funding secured") to 235 while the Nasdaq is up 40% over the same time period.

Sure, the game is not over but there is nothing wrong with celebrating significant milestones like that. Go ahead and buy, you may catch a pump. Maybe the market is wrong punishing this stock while rewarding most of the others. But it seems the market is correctly adjusting to the fact this is a broken growth story at a still-pricey valuation.

Its a lot like saying the battle was won, but the war is far from over

Lots of time and effort went into prediction the future, and the predictions came to fruition. Hard to not take a moment.

They lost $700 million after promising profitable quarters all quarters going forward. Some clowns were even thinking they'd get an S&P 500 listing now!! S&X sales are in the toilet (1/2 normal after years of consistency) despite dropping prices 40K euro overnight - and they just dropped the high end again another $20K, giving Ludicrous away for free. Model 3 demand seems lackluster. Their Model Y - with 3x the addressable market - has close to zero reservations after taking 400K+ reservations for Model 3. Panasonic has suspended further investments it seems, and are going on a public spat with Musk, which is extraordinary for a Japanese company. It is clear they bailed the cuck out to manufacture his "profitable" quarter, and he has not made good. Panasonic has the numbers for current demand and would not have done this if Model 3 demand was strong.

It's not "stock price bro", it's pure fundamentals. As for the stock price, consider that the market just broke all time highs while Tesla dived 30+% from last highs. Going hard against the market is very different from following it higher/underperforming it as a bull.

How will the SP market beta change if the bear thesis plays out? For the last several years, the stock would effectively move with the market (hi beta). I believe this is due to a complete disconnect between the SP and the companies fundamentals. As the SP moves closer to fundamental value, it seems like beta should fall. Regular auto stocks trade at book value (30 or less for Tesla), and move with the market. If Tesla hits 30 does it still move with the market, or will movement be based purely on company specific events?

That’s the story

This is a small, dusty corner of the internet. Might want to check out some of the echo chambers on the other side before you go through with this plan.