But the more cars they get out there the more cars they'll have on the streets in 2020 pulling in $10k/yr to Tesla as robotaxis

Okay. I strongly disagree with basically all of this but I do appreciate you sharing your viewpoint. Just for the record though, there are around 10k unsold model 3s floating around somewhere in addition to the 10k in transit.

The next and final lever elon will use to push demand the last 10 days of Q2:

elon tweet: "We've decided to stop selling cars - the revenue we'll be losing on each car when they become robotaxis next year is just too much. We want them all for ourselves. Customer sales end June 30! Get them while you can!"

Alternatively he could start selling current owners future rights to use the Tesla robotaxi network (at a huge discount of course, price goes up Jan 1, 2020!) It would be completely in line with their vaporware business model.

He could charge something like $5k for lifetime access to the robotaxi network (a steal compared to the $149/mo subscription rate!).

I should probably stop giving him ideas.

Holy **** that is brilliant and he would definitely do that.

got out of some short vol at the open and then got back in after it tanked. I didn't expect it to tank so it was a nice surprise.

What do people think of that move? the fact it didn't sell off for so long makes me think the "smart money" is heading for the exits and the cult members are holding the bag. Why did it take so long to sell off? Was there more news?

I thought it was a bunch of shorts covering early propping it up. No second half volume spike or anything.

That'll buff right out.

Better hope it will unless you want to wait 6 months for parts

It’s not my view. I was just offering an alternative story.

My real view of Tesla is that Musk is just treating the company as a vehicle to achieve his EV/green energy dream. No competent CEO would sacrifice soooo much of Model S/X production just to maximize model 3 volume.

I think this also explains why Tesla’s OCF has been toeing the line of almost exactly zero but somehow still slightly negative for most quarters in the last 5 years, even when the demand books was incontrovertibly larger than production capacity. Musk just wanted the cars on the road and didn’t care about cost until the cash burn got unbearable.

You saw signs of this lack of concern for costs with the guy reverse engineering cars for a living. Early Model 3s were built with no attention paid to cost. Just a few months later, the model 3s cut off a ton of inefficiencies. The culture at Tesla is volume first, then costs (as much as necessary), then quality. It’s Minimally Viable Product meets mass auto manufacturing.

I don’t think the model works long term. You can iterate software hundreds of times in a month with virtually no cost. Each iteration, basically every time Musk got another whim, costs Tesla millions of dollars. Tens of millions as production level ramps.

I actually do think Tesla has a viable business. The brand is synonymous with fast and modern electric vehicle. It has also shown it can sell at good gross margins (even without credits. Though the 35k base is meh for now Tesla in the past has cut costs over time.) I do want to invest in Tesla at some point. That point is some time after the board grows a pair and puts a leash and a muzzle on Elon Musk. Musk is useful as figurehead but the firm desperately needs a Tim Cook type now.

Congrats guys to those who have stuck with it (those with actual IRL positions), bears in total control now and it's a bit jarring how poorly the stock is doing vs the other US automakers recently and YTD which was one of the last areas the stock has been holding up well on a relative basis (even F is back over $10, I mean LOL).

Find me a worse stock in the market right now...

Another couple of days like today and the first of my puts come into the money. I've got some $210's that mature in August of this year, then some $150's in January and $100's in June 2020.

Looks like my sacrifice to the market gods to kickstart the party worked.

What impact might the margin call have?

just wanted to say thanks to all the high quality content posters in here, have already named them in the past. (TS, Pete, Syndrome, Mo****a, proton)

This is my most profitable trade of career now.

Also traded it twice from 350 to 275 earlier in year/last year, albeit with not much size.

Cheers fellas

*had 250 puts from 340

also shorted the stock thats still open

It SHOULD have pretty much none, but a lot of the price is Musks image as a genius/untouchable/bulletproof figure. Margin call would make some people renounce.

If he were forced to liquidate the shares then I dunno, could pretty catastrophic.

+1 same boat, thanks all. it's also a fun story to follow and i might not have started following it if not for this thread

TSLAQ right now:

Found the error.

Tsla puts and long pdex are my 2 biggest positions by far. Not a bad time for that. And I can't take credit for either. Thanks guys.

Tesla autopilot (probably) kills another:
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/loc...229716149.html

Nice work everyone, only a small long term position for me, but I've enjoyed following the thread.

June 100 puts still alive!

I do not respect the SEC. I do not respect them.

cheers shipit2kg. Been a helluva run but not over yet.

The SEC caved but that's just a distraction now. The 10Q comes out next week + april deliveries. I'm seeing estimates as high as 23k which seems too high to me. May deliveries will be worse as April had some March in-transits. Either way elon's 90-100k is absurd for Q2.

I think the Musk margin call is much lower, below 200, so we'll see if that's a factor.

Now that he settled with SEC he _may_ be able to captial raise.