Open Side Menu Go to the Top
Register
TSLA showing cracks? TSLA showing cracks?

04-24-2019 , 06:39 PM
I don't buy that every car insurance company out there is in some scheme to fleece tesla owners.

If that were the case, one would lower their price and get all the tesla business and profit.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
04-24-2019 , 06:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Didace
"In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.”
But it's been this same story for a while. We're in the long run.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
04-24-2019 , 06:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JKC
This dude offering car insurance now?
Sure, makes sense. Fire insurance.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
04-24-2019 , 06:45 PM
Forward Q2 guidance of "reduced losses" on 90-100k deliveries.
Inventory up from 3.1b to 3.8b
Cash down to 2.1b from 3.6b, with 770m in customer deposits.
3.2b in payables, so NWC is -1.1b
Quick ratio of 0.35
Repeats guidance based on "having a good product" and not on any data
Clearly no model Y reservations
SEC is holding up MXWL
Considering cap raise but there is something stopping them


Should be good for a 3-5% pop at the open tomorrow. AH green.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
04-24-2019 , 06:46 PM
Why are we seriously debating the idea of Tesla offering insurance? It will never happen. Nevermind the regulations and capital requirements- they have a hard enough time being a car manufacturer.

No thought or work has gone into this idea. It was floated merely because owners are complaining and Elon needs to control the narrative.

One of the biggest planks in the Tesla story is cost of ownership vs. ICE cars. All the twitter and reddit posts about increased insurance prices was hurting that story. Also this allows Elon to add another enemy to the Tesla vs. Evil mission and further brainwash his devotees.

Remember- Tesla's product isn't cars. Its the stock price.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
04-24-2019 , 07:03 PM
What a disaster and the stock yawns


The AR balance makes zero sense I challenge anyone to find a way to owe Tesla money
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
04-24-2019 , 07:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by syndr0me
What a disaster and the stock yawns


The AR balance makes zero sense I challenge anyone to find a way to owe Tesla money
They didn't lower guidance. Because they can't.

Bull thesis that this was a one off remains intact. For two more months.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
04-24-2019 , 08:37 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JKC
It's the only explanation I've come across, but it's just hard to believe there's that much dumb money out there.
It is??

Bitcoin and ****coins sold tens of billions at prices >70% higher than now with a market cap of almost a trillion dollars. Pure fraud ICOs alone pulled in $30 billion. $30 billion to wankers pulling pure frauds whose only talent was to write a good sounding prospectus and viral market.

Pot stocks sit at P/Es of 600 - companies that make $20 million in revenues with $10 million of losses sold for $20 billion

Penny stock frauds pull in many billions.

There's easily many many times that much dumb money out there. The beauty of something like Tesla is that it brings in institutional dumb money as well, which is an even larger pool. Look at the clowns that invested in Theranos, Valeant at highs, Enron, etc.

On top of all that and maybe even larger than that is the fact that we're at the end of a long bull and the market is awash in free wealth and full of brains trained that **** always goes up and you gotta buy the dip.

Last edited by ToothSayer; 04-24-2019 at 08:42 PM.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
04-24-2019 , 09:03 PM
Bought a heavy amount of TSLA after the shenanigans @259.82. Yeah this is a redic short-term buy IMO. The bear is satisfied at this price and the market at ATH bull**** isn't a big factor here.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
04-24-2019 , 09:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by formula72
The bear is satisfied at this price
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
04-24-2019 , 10:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by formula72
Bought a heavy amount of TSLA after the shenanigans @259.82. Yeah this is a redic short-term buy IMO. The bear is satisfied at this price and the market at ATH bull**** isn't a big factor here.

Can you say a little more about your thinking here? This is a sincere question, I don’t really understand the thesis for initiating a long position now. Just the trading range?
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
04-25-2019 , 02:24 AM
If you believe TSLA is playing games with accounting and that Wall Street is falling for it, then TSLA has incentives to basically stuff the losses into Q1 because Wall Street is already expecting a loss, to maximize Q2 earnings.

Just saying that's a possible short term long hypothesis.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
04-25-2019 , 02:27 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by grizy
If you believe TSLA is playing games with accounting and that Wall Street is falling for it, then TSLA has incentives to basically stuff the losses into Q1 because Wall Street is already expecting a loss, to maximize Q2 earnings.

Just saying that's a possible short term long hypothesis.
Yeah I said a long time ago they should just sandbag the quarter and start the process over in Q2.

But there is no indication that happened. Either from on the ground observations or the income statement and balance sheet.

On the other hand that AR balance remains strangely high.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
04-25-2019 , 03:52 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MrFeelNothin
Why are we seriously debating the idea of Tesla offering insurance? It will never happen. Nevermind the regulations and capital requirements- they have a hard enough time being a car manufacturer.

No thought or work has gone into this idea. It was floated merely because owners are complaining and Elon needs to control the narrative.
It would likely be a partnership with an insurance company. I wouldn't say definitively that it will never happen.

But for the shorts, the beauty of the Tesla Insurance plan is that you'd need to be a safe/cautious driver to qualify for lower rates with Tesla, and as a result, the majority who wouldn't insure through Tesla would be higher risk drivers. This would drive up the price of insuring a Tesla elsewhere, and all these fanboys who bought Teslas for the performance (so they could drive recklessly) would lose their minds.

The end result - no point in buying a Tesla unless you're a flawless, cautious driver (according to their driver assessment algorithms).
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
04-25-2019 , 09:04 AM
I see no point for an insurance company to partner with Tesla when they could just write insurance for themselves
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
04-25-2019 , 09:10 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by coordi
I see no point for an insurance company to partner with Tesla when they could just write insurance for themselves
I think it's what people in this thread have mentioned. Use data to get the best risk. Leave the bad risk for competitors.

I don't think Tesla would want to image it in that way though...
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
04-25-2019 , 09:37 AM
Meh. How much % would an insurance company have to defer to get specific driver data on insureds they likely already write. Maybe car insurance is that inefficient, but I highly doubt it.

Tesla writing insurance against their self driving software seems like a blatant conflict of interest anyways
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
04-25-2019 , 09:44 AM
Yea, I'd bet against it happening, and certainly not within a month.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
04-25-2019 , 09:54 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by coordi
Meh. How much % would an insurance company have to defer to get specific driver data on insureds they likely already write. Maybe car insurance is that inefficient, but I highly doubt it.

Tesla writing insurance against their self driving software seems like a blatant conflict of interest anyways
I don't know what Tesla collect, but if they can leverage user data that can be super useful for insurances, I know mine was trying to install some box in our car in exchange of a 30% to 70% price reduction so they aren't that efficient without additional data.

I don't see the conflict of interest either, that would be Tesla actually showing how they value their self-driving software.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
04-25-2019 , 10:09 AM
The boxes have been around for 20 years and a 30-70% reduction promised just for putting it in the car is unheard of.

In the last few years the boxes have been used to levy penalties, not issue discounts
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
04-25-2019 , 10:14 AM
just checked because I saw that 3 years ago and wasn't sure about the amount: https://www.direct-assurance.fr/nos-...auto-connectee

so up to 50%, i suspect you can get ****ed over by the insurance so I didn't research it hard.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
04-25-2019 , 11:17 AM
Why are we talking about insurance? It's all bull****. Like his "million robotaxis in 2020", the cuck is just throwing out nonsense to distract people so they're talking about insurance instead of the disastrous quarter and death of demand. And in this case also trying to get ahead of the horrible insurance situation for people who buy Teslas, which are insanely expensive to repair due to poor design. There's no magic bullet for that.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
04-25-2019 , 11:35 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by eddymitchel
just checked because I saw that 3 years ago and wasn't sure about the amount: https://www.direct-assurance.fr/nos-...auto-connectee

so up to 50%, i suspect you can get ****ed over by the insurance so I didn't research it hard.
I see now how some couples stay in relationships with habitual liars.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
04-25-2019 , 12:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by coordi
Meh. How much % would an insurance company have to defer to get specific driver data on insureds they likely already write. Maybe car insurance is that inefficient, but I highly doubt it.
If you think car insurance is so efficient that knowing what the driver is doing 100% of the time adds no edge in a) assessing and b) reducing risk you are nuts.

That is not the reason it would be a terrible idea.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
04-25-2019 , 12:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by grizy
If you believe TSLA is playing games with accounting and that Wall Street is falling for it, then TSLA has incentives to basically stuff the losses into Q1 because Wall Street is already expecting a loss, to maximize Q2 earnings.

Just saying that's a possible short term long hypothesis.

Okay, thanks. I can’t imagine someone putting on a position for this reason who wasn’t already bullish, but I suppose that’s possible. Do you subscribe to this view?
TSLA showing cracks? Quote

      
m