I gotta give it to Elon, the Autonomous Investor Day is a genius move to lure in his cult and attract more members since without research it seems that Tesla is close and they can easily convince themselves that Tesla cars are now appreciating assets, something they desperately want to believe.

Look at what he has his cult promoting:

Amazing.

Any predictions for the FSD event?

People forget that Tesla already demonstrated highway self-driving in 2016. Claiming in text at the beginning of the video that the driver was only there for legal reasons and the car was driving itself.

If this is the same thing 3 years later how is that not massively embarrassing?

I guess its also possible they will have a video of a pre-programmed non-highway route.

Doubt any investors are getting rides in the car. No media presence. No recordings of event allowed.

Elon clearly setting up to raise money or spin off autonomous because he is jealous of Lyft and Uber but who is buying? His last successfully faked demonstration was the Solar Roof.

Pre-programmed route, both on freeway and city roads. Of course the route was fully mapped and programmed in, well in advance, and "driven" probably hundreds of times.

The cult will eat it up, every expert on the planet will say without Lidar it's completely unsafe.

2-5% pop in stock price. But then comes the earnings report soon after. Harder to put lipstick on that pig.

Exactly. If they had anything at all worthwhile, they would scream it from the top of their lungs. Reveal it publicly. This is a closed door con, a hype which will filter out via selected people while avoiding actual scrutiny.

My best guess is that they're doing this to raise to cover the liquidity issues of horrible demand and keep Panasonic happy. Look at the sequence of events:

- Horrible delivery numbers, and they do an unbidden mention of "have enough cash"
- Panasonic rebukes them publicly and leaks the decision about a freeze of further investment
- Next day, earnings is moved back a week earlier than it usually is
- Must does an "autonomous investor day" two days before earnings

I think it's highly likely Panasonic gave them some big discounts/payment breaks to make Q3 profit numbers, and they haven't paid them back yet, and Panasonic are balking/deeply concerned about demand death.

Problems with Pana also explain why Elon is being so stubborn with his 500k production tweets and not reducing 2019 deliveries & production guidance which was absurd at the time and is even more absurd given the abysmal Q1. He made promises to Pana that he can't go back on.

An interesting date to keep in mind is 5/9. Earnings for Pana. They might drop news.

I can’t tell if Ross gerber and Cathie wood are incredibly stupid or complicit/compensated for what looks like incredible idiocy

the latter

if you have no alpha as an analyst, one of the easiest ways to make a name for yourself is to pump these cult stocks

It's a combination of PR and stupidity. You offer sunshine and hope and certainty on risky bets and the dumb money flows toward that strength. The notoreity from the dumb comments only spreads your visibility and plays well to the confirmation biases and doubts of those that are bullish.

They're basically dumb people with strong sales savvy. A bit like Musk.

The whole thing is a bit like politics/Trump/AOC. Gerber/Wood post really dumb bullish ****, the dumb bulls eat it up because it confirms their beliefs that Tesla will have full self driving by the end of 2019 and will completely take over both the car manufacturing and ride sharing industries by 2022, the $TSLAQ crowd laughs at it all and the bulls love it because they think the shorts are "triggered".

Gerber is actually stupid with good sales savvy. There are plenty of guys like that - dumb as two bricks on details but good at making marks feel like you want them to.

Hedge funds have no alpha so they're basically a sales job where people give you their money and you get to keep a big chunk of their index returns and a little bit of their total wealth every year. Nice work if you have the sales ability.

And yeah it's definitely a pretty good PR strategy today - appearing to have fun while being slightly offbeat and triggering people against you who are a little serious and care about details. Musk sometimes, Trump, AOC all use it to their advantage, it's a new world of PR.

Good Friday news dump - 4 Directors are out. I guess they dumped enough stock there is not much left to do.

For clarification- nobody is resigning. They are not running for reelection. Two in 2019 and two in 2020 (Gracias term end date moved up from 2021.)

You have to love this thread. The bear echo chamber is insane.

So, TS claims: autonomous taxi fleets in multiple cities

Reality:

• one taxi fleet with 400 selected potential customers (not hundreds per day) in a single city - Waymo
• an employee transportation service most likely not going all the way through the city - Cruise

He then claims that it would be in other cities (another lie). He offers Tokyo, which is hilarious because it shows that he didn't even bother to research it (basically the next lie).

He is in awe on how good GM Cruise's technology is and how many disengagements they have and what not. Reality is that they have a crash every 8,653.8 miles in California in 2018.


I am seen ITT as the Tesla bull. The reality is the only time I really think about Tesla is when I need to correct TS ITT on his bull**** lies. I am not nearly as bullish on Tesla when there'd be a balance on how the company is perceived.

Reality is every 12097.86 miles

447,621 GM cruise California test miles in 2018

37 crashes

When your Reality argument is off by 40% and easily refuted with basic research, it doesn't really give your arguments much credibility. However, the stock price is still quite high.

My source was the following:
https://tech.co/news/mapping-driverl...fornia-2018-10

Irrespective of the difference, a crash every 12000 miles is ridiculously high.

For miles driven before end of 2018, the average is 9,818.5 miles per crash.

I have no idea what to make of this other than I don’t see how it can be seen as bullish

Dude you're a mega assclown and it's tiring. Autonomous vehicles crashed far less than regular vehicles even in 2016, and disengagements have dropped >4x since then. Why don't you just listen to what your betters tell you, since you lack the cognitive capacity to evaluate information?

These cars have a very low crash rate for driving in San Francisco traffic which involves heaps of four ways stop signs, frequent obstacles, difficult decisions, terrible visibility. Apart from Malaysia, San Fran is one of the most difficult places I've ever driven. Crashes are also usually not the fault of the autonomous car - any minor scrape ever caused by anyone to an autonomous car is reported as an "autonomous driving crash".

Here's reality:

Virginia Tech report finds national crash rate for conventional vehicles higher than crash rate of self-driving cars



Meanwhile, the crash data is for crashes that are nearly always caused by other drivers. Example of a random click on the crash list:



A news report on same, which shows Waymo are crushing regular drivers for safety:
The tech is so advanced that they're also operating without safety drivers in some cities now going from anywhere to anywhere on call in these cities as they roll out late stage testing of their taxi service in various cities from Atlanta to San Francisco.


You're perhaps the dumbest person on this forum and it's tiring. You're on record as saying that Tesla are ahead in autonomy, which is contradicted by every bit of data we have: a professional research report, disengagement data, actual deployed taxi services in multiple cities driving in all traffic conditions vs unsafe/buggy highway driving, public test programs of multiple cars, videos...your position is absurd. Like you're legit a total dickhead who can't evaluate evidence.

The sad thing is that you actually have some good ideas and counterpoints, but your head is so far up your ass with stuff like:

- They didn't drop the prices 40k euro! You're a liar! <shown evidence> Your evidence sucks! you're a liar!
- There aren't autonomous taxi services running on call anywhere to anywhere services in multiple cities (there are)
- Google cars crash more than normal drivers! It's insanely high (no, it isn't, it's actually far less than humans, as I've cited from a university study from even two years ago and a news analysis).

And on and on with your idiocy that we never discuss your actual good points. You've got some strange idea buried in your head that I post unsourced incorrect information, when the exact opposite is true.

The argument that someone else is at fault is only going so far. It's very obvious that something is not working correctly if you are involved way more often than a normal driver in a crash. I am not even disputing the core of your argument that the autonomous driving vehicles are safer, but it comes at a disadvantage (e.g. slower pace to be sure is a frequent one, the example you've posted seems to indicate something not normal about the driving style as well).

You know that Tesla "tests" their vehicles worldwide and it's fairly obvious that Waymo (and Cruise) will roll out to other cities. But remember, your lie was that they have autonomous taxi fleets operating in multiple cities.

I also never said that Google cars are crashing as often, I made the argument about Cruise which you think is so far ahead. Google has been at this for more than a decade by now. The way Tesla tries to solve the autonomous driving challenge is way more difficult than going the super safe way. Why are you so certain that Tesla could not do the same as Cruise is doing and just deploy their "service" in San Francisco? It's just an assumption you make based on the crashes that Tesla has had in the past. It's very linear thinking though.

I was wrong on the 40k, but that's not an excuse for your constant posting of wrong information.

The cognitive dissonance required to claim on the one hand that Waymo and Cruise are taking a "super safe" route to autonomous driving compared to Tesla's more difficult path while simultaneously claiming Tesla could deploy self driving on city streets if they wanted to is insane.

Also you're missing a couple of important nuances in TS's argument:

-"Accident" rates for self driving cars are different than accident rates for standard vehicles. Waymo is required to report every scrape its cars are involved in whereas a driver is incentivized NOT to report a crash to insurance unless there is significant damage.

-Waymo being at fault in 1 out of more than 30 "accidents" indicates Waymo is far better at avoiding crashes than normal drivers. Otherwise you'd expect it to be 50/50 all else being equal.

In other news Tesla is back to using police and the courts to attempt to silence its critics. Filed and were granted a TRO against @skabooshka on Friday based on an affidavit from security employee claiming that skabooshka bumped her with his car as he was leaving the Fremont property. They also cite to his tweeting and desire to see Tesla and Autopilot fail.

TRO includes protection of any Tesla employee driving Tesla with manufacturer plates within 5 miles of Fremont on 4/22.

Someone is desperate not to allow anyone to document Autonomy Day. Wonder why...

It's based entirely on the current state of their autopilot. It has serious bugs that show it has terrible awareness of its environment even on highly controlled, fully laned highways. It can't even detect stationary objects in this environment!!!!!! Think about that for a second. Teslas are guaranteed to slam into stationary objects at full speed. Guaranteed! They cannot see them and don't stop. And dozens of other serious bugs on the very latest update - it turns the wheel straight into trucks, which disappear from its awareness when they pull alongside, at which the point the hopelessly written software decides it's safe to lane change into the spot where it detected a full size truck just 1 seconds ago. It freaks out when lanes disappear, including running people straight into concrete dividers at full speed. It can't handle off ramps reliably, taking them too fast, crossing the side lanes, etc. There are dozens of serious bugs in even the ultra simple highway driving version of what Tesla offers - what on Earth makes you think they're anywhere near solving an orders-of-magnitude-more-difficult problem with driving in cities?

We know they don't test on public roads in California where their autonomous driving team is set up. Because California mandates reporting of all data on miles driven, and the tiny amount of miles Tesla has show a disengagement every 3 miles (compare with once per 12,000 miles for GM & Waymo). So either they are super secret testing in another state with hidden R&D funding that's kept off their 10Q, or they have absolutely jack ****. I think all the evidence points strongly to the latter. Like 99.5% to 0.5% to the latter. I don't know how anyone could disagree, frankly, unless you have zero understanding of how technology and research works.

Tesla is like an insane cult, not unlike Scientology. Harass and lie about critics, try to get them banned from platforms like Twitter for perfectly reasonable statements (Musk seems like friends with Jack).

Elon Musk personally called a prominent skeptic's boss to get him shut down (Montana Skeptic). Calling a SWAT team on a leaker claiming he was "threatening to shoot up their factory" (this was a pure lie). Calling child services on a former nurse who blew the whistle on their hiding/non-treatment of injuries (the investigation found nothing). Now they're claiming skaboosha - who seems like a reasonable, harmless fellow - hit an employee with his car and "attempted to interfer with the FSD vehicle they're filming". This is purely manufactured in my view - Tesla's security team were hired from the scandal-ridden Uber team who did all kinds of nasty stuff. Meanwhile, Tesla followers/bulls send death threats to prominent bears regularly.

Meanwhile, Musk routinely deliberately lies (or he is a very stupid person) to his investors and customers, gets people killed pushing out unsafe alpha software, sells pure vaporware, runs bait and switch schemes, takes months to refund. He also commits large scale securities fraud. His other companies lie to steal money from taxpayers and he embezzles money from yet another one.

Do you think these are the only ways in which he commits fraud and is dishonest? How many ****ing warning signs do you need?

And why anyone would defend such an obvious piece of **** is beyond me. He's the Monsanto/Scientology of the car industry.

Confirmed: Elon Musk posted $420 "funding secured", committing massive securities fraud and costing longs a large amount of money as the truth came out, because his girlfriend had a thing about 420. Her post from today:

I dont think its massive securities fraud posting online comments promoting your company. securities fraud is discrete actions with intent. he was probably high as a kite on lsd when he wrote that but at what point is anything posted on the internet taken verbatim. ITs the same thing with russian interference or anything else. we can blindly follow anything we hear and we need to get used to being mislead because ther is no end to how much we can be mislead, if we are reading **** on the internet

saying you have the funding and are planning to take your company private isn't 'promoting'. elon's twitter account was registered as an official way of communication for the company. people traded the stock on that info.