Not sure why anything that happened 5-6 years ago is relevant but Tesla has been greatly underperforming the market since I've been involved ITT and trading at the bottom end of that "range" for quite awhile too now. I guess you are just going to keep going back to "stock price, bro" as long as it trades above $250 no matter how badly the business is actually performing?

If IAmAnAdult wanted to enter a long-term short that would be one thing. You are probably right that the thread would cheer that since that is the group's position and the news definitely confirmed our beliefs and thesis. But to try to daytrade on the news after the market already reacted? And if that wasn't what he was doing then don't get shaken out so easily by a small bounce. That isn't a MMQB hindsight analysis. Its just basic strategy.

Serious question to those of you who think retail is the only thing holding up the stock, what's it going to take for them to sell? To put it another way someone everyday for five years has been buying in at a $40b+ valuation, it's pretty obvious bulls view days like today as an opportunity and once again it put in a big volume candle AFTER the open but really went nowhere. What's it going to take? You guys assume demand is dead, who's buying the stock then?

First of all, a small detail: I lost a dollar, or .37% on my move to re-enter the exact same trade. You think it was -EV (without addressing my reasoning of avoiding a short term squeeze, which worked until it didn't), fine. But it's just not that big of a deal.


On a more important note, I fundamentally disagree with you on a way bigger point: Apparantly you can't imagine hearing news, new that has been speculated on for months, and having that data and market reaction convince you that there is significant downside ahead. It's totally bizarre. If only everyone had shorted VRX a full week or month after Citron first posted their damning report. Sometimes it takes more than 30 seconds for a move to run its course. Yes, everyone gets that shorting from 300 is better than from 270. Congrats! But it seems to me you took a far bigger risk than I did. You guessed right, ok great you knew the numbers would be bad, but you guessed right about the market reaction to Tesla's presentation. IMO there was a significant chance than TSLA would be at 325 right now, and noone in the thread would have really said anything new because we've all seen that happen so many times from air.

I, on the other hand, am so far down a whooping 1.5% on my short, and thats including getting cute and losing that .37%. We have hindsight now to know that TSLA would immediately recover 2%+ today. Saying, "uh uh uh well hey it was 10% already! that's 2 digits!" doesn't always work. I personally was surprised that it didnt go lower, esp considering the uncertainty with the SEC clownshow. Had Tesla dropped another 5% in the market, would anyone be saying, "Wow! What an intraday move!" Of course not.

More importantly, I think Tesla's inability to cover up these numbers, and the market reaction to them, and the implications for the next 2 quarters, is significant NEW data we didn't have, which makes it a more compelling short for me personally. More downside risk for sure, but far more likely that the big drop cometh and it's time to pay attention.

If you can't understand whatsoever why someone waiting on the sidelines might want to enter now, keep an eye out if short interest increases after today. It's one thing if you just disagree, but you just seem to be totally baffled by the possibility. And I find that bizarre.

Its multi-layered.

At the base you have the hardcore cultists who have been essentially brainwashed into viewing every event through the lens of Elon vs. Big Oil/Government/Legacy Automakers in a mission to save the world. They are likely mostly small retail fish buying small numbers of shares. The Robin Hood charts showing record numbers of account holders buying in recently are interesting but although there are many of them its hard to say that they really move the market themselves.

But then there is the second layer of traders and investors that are more wise to the realities of Tesla's business but know that as long as the base group of devotees exist and the future-oriented story is somewhat intact the stock price has a buffer and the company can probably create a new lie whenever necessary to gloss over terrible news that would sink any normal company. This group probably isn't going away as long as Elon is in charge and hasn't been unmasked as a snake oil salesman and poor businessman.

Then you have the passive funds, Elon himself, and Larry Ellison who aren't selling.

I am interested to see how many shares the active funds sold in March. I do believe that many funds are getting out of dodge but it is going to take further deterioration of the business before the stock falls back to a more normal valuation. To include: no cap raise (with clear deteriorating cash position) or raise on bad terms, poor customer service destroying brand, more store closures and layoffs, worse than expected Q1 earnings, low Q2 deliveries, and other unknown or less likely catalysts like criminal charges, Panasonic taking action, major recall, or NTSB/NHTSA action if there are more autopilot deaths.

I do once again think there is a chance of a surprise bankrutpcy filing in mid-Q2 if they can't raise. Although its now clear Elon will do anything to avoid that so even if it should happen it probably won't.

What if the stock went on a huge run? It's exactly MMQB based on how he traded and how the stock performed and the fact that your comments were afterwords and not earlier on in real time.

As I already stated I can comprehend the bolded if you had a long term thesis (even if I disagreed with the entry point.)

What I can't comprehend is your above avowed logic combined with then deciding you needed to get back out and back in again in the same day. If you were trying to day trade on this news you did it all backwards. Thats all I am saying.

When I said "this is the first time I've entered TSLA after years of watching", I didn't mean to daytrade for a few minutes.

I am short on a longer time frame and wanted to scalp and save some money by day trading during the court case. Why would I reenter a day-trade going into the close?

As I said initially, my 1st target is a retest of 250 lows, and may take off some then. Hopefully the market doesn't give me the choice and waterfalls downward with my full position intact. And I have nothing to add to the overall bear thesis that has been repeated ad nauseam in this thread. All I've added is my take on the event yesterday and the market reaction.

Thats a ridiculous standard since nobody in this thread (or forum for that matter) is posting trades in real time. But even by your standard both coordi and ToothSayer posted in real time that he should probably wait and short after it bounces back.

If you can't see the contradiction between entering a "free money" short on "game changing" news (after the market already reacted to the news) and then getting out three hours later then I can't help you.

Lol don't pretend you weren't on and could've stated that earlier, you have posts during that time period. Again you piled on AFTER the fact and it can't really be spun any other way. My standards are you aren't really qualified on what's good basic strategy or what's a game changer based on your history and let's leave it at that. Imanadultnow deserves credit for being open, if you want the same courtesy then don't MMQB like you continue to do.

And it was at this moment that I realized you couldn't read, despite signs indicating otherwise in your prior posts. Sigh.

Your timeline is very off here. I did actually add on to my short higher, which brought my BE to 264.50 as stated above. But sadly coordi and TS both forgot to tell me that the "bounce back" would top at 271.20. Thanks for nothing guys! You seem to confuse the future and the past -- clairvoyance, teach me.

I was actually sleeping when those posts were made but OK. (I'm behind in time zones.)

Its funny that you are trying to police MMQB'ing when 95% of your posts are MMQB'ing, trying to "get" Toothsayer for some past prediction, or follow up nittery and whining after those attempts don't go over well.

I'm not policing anything and I don't deny I do it as well, still doesn't change you aren't qualified to comment on what's good basic strategy or a game changer. Congrats on finally making some money the last couple days, good luck doing it going forward.

Haha, I mean I think their predictions were pretty accurate but I appreciate the humor and take your point. I was wrong on your re-entering- looks like you tried to but it didn't fill to be accurate.

I never intended to go this far down the rabbit hole over what is really not a big deal but that is what ASAP does with his trolling. He is a sad, sad man.

I don't have anything against you and am in fact rooting for you on your DGLY trade. I think you were wrong on the timing and declaring of free money then trying to trade the contempt hearing but I do agree with you that the deliveries letter increased the conviction of the short thesis so we are mostly on the same page. Lets just bury the hatchet and focus on Tesla being corrupt and broken?

Sounds good, no hard feelings. GL.

ASAP, why do u think retail is holding the stock up? I don’t think that, atleast not long term

Nightmare. I would have been panicked and broke a window with my super strong thighs.

I know some do because no one (whether it's bulls or bears) can deny institutions (passive and active) are cooling on this, in fact I think among a lot of hedge funds its becoming more of a consensus short (whether that's through the stock, options, or the bonds and all the various combinations) than it is a long. You have all these prominent people saying it's a short or they want Musk gone and an adult put in charge. That was a horrible deliveries number today... And yet in the after market the stock was up from the open on 3x volume. Who is propping this up outside of dedicated retail and some remaining fund managers? The 8% move is nice but how many wanted the down 20% below $240-250 just to get it over with?

Maybe it's just a function of the overall markets, we've had a great year so far especially in a lot of risky assets off the lows and this has still lagged almost all of them. But it's not collapsing like you want to get a true payout worth the energy and time some of you and TSLAq have put into this. Musk and the fanbase behind him persists, employees are loyal too despite a lot of turnover. I just can't ignore this fact and stock price bro is a nice joke but the stock and bonds are still hanging in there despite the proclamation of demand being dead.

It's a mess and yet it still persists like only Musk/Tesla can...

Musk going full fraudulent Twitter pump rampage again now that SEC + legal system shown to be worthless.



That people is how you get chumps to pony up for $3000 pure fraud vaporware "Fully Self Driving" (capitalized so you can't sue), coming in "3 months maybe 6 months definitely" 27 months ago. Such a relentless conman.

Good to know that creating autonomous taxis are just a matter of finishing the software.

That is just the holy grail for Musk. Being able to sell his cars as high yielding investment products. Soon Tesla cars will no longer be quoted in absolute dollar prices but in cap rates instead.

The holy grail is to be so far removed from stable profits that you are valued by multiples.

Multiples of something above the revenue line preferably. (Like multiples of number of users).

My bet is there is maneuvering behind the scenes to force Musk to share management with an “adult.”

So basically ROI.

I'm shocked that a car could undergo a power malfunction that would render the doors inoperable. And how then could Tesla not install some sort of emergency window, or at the very least include a glass-breaking hammer under the steering wheel (which of course they could refer to as an Emergency Ejection Wand or some bull****)? After a crash it's common enough in any car that the damage prevents the doors from opening; is this even more of a concern in a Model X because if the crash interrupts your power, you can't open your doors? What force is keeping them closed with no electricity anyway?

It's pretty common with Teslas. The was an accident recently with a Model S where the car caught fire after a crash. The airbags inflated but failed to deflate as they're supposed to, trapping he driver. People that arrived on the scene tried to open the doors, but the car doors also didn't unlock as they were supposed to in a crash. The bystanders were frantically trying to open the doors while the battery pack ignited and he was pinned to his seat by the malfunctioning airbags and malfunctioning doors. He was burned alive while people watched.

I remember that crash in February. At least in that case I don't think there is any evidence that the driver was conscious and making any attempt to escape the vehicle—it was just that everyone outside the car couldn't get the doors open because of the malfunctioning exterior handles. I'm skeptical that the airbags didn't deflate, despite the tweeted account of "Misty Lea." Deflated curtain airbags enveloping the interior may give that impression to someone who doesn't know any better. So that crash in February certainly presents its own worries about the hazards of being in a wrecked Tesla. But this issue of undamaged doors not functioning from the inside is bizarre to me. I still don't understand what force would prevent their opening on the Model X—they're just too heavy to lift without an electric motor or what?

Lol exactly.