Elon is in the building!
(U.S. District Courthouse for the Southern District of New York building that is.)

Bloomberg live updates: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/live-...t?srnd=premium

Musk walking into court surrounded by taunting shouting reporters was perfect.

"How do you feel about the SEC Mr Musk?"

The SEC is officially dead in the US and need not be feared by fraudsters. Good for a little short term relief run.

This was always a sideshow to the real story - demand cliff, but yeah the SEC is clueless and unprepared and it will be months more of "crafting new agreement" with not even a slap on the wrist for elon.

I got out in the first burst when they said they wanted to fine him. I mean wtf his tweets and claims only cost people hundreds of millions of dollars within the past year.

Yes, I'll be furious of it drops but I don't want to get run over bc he's secretly iron man. No matter where you start you can make 100% on your short...

I think the real story shifts to their cash balance, demand is now fully settled. They have a 180m SC term loan, 2 payrolls, and everyday AP of XXm per day in April. Seems pretty clear they were anticipating the price slashing to pull in more cash than it did. There has to be a very material chance they are down to fumes and it could all be over any week here.

So far four days into Q2 in two of Tesla's three biggest European markets (Netherlands and Norway) they have sold 6 Model S.

5 of which are the "discontinued" 75 version.

Good luck!

SEC was never meant to focus on one person. They stepped out of line, and have egg on their face, but they are hardly dead

like a clown I reentered at EOD, at a lower price than my exit. Had some limit trades in the 270s that sadly werent filled.

You are flailing around here, this is why everyone said don't cover. My own short approach requires 3 things:

1 Planned entry price/indicator
2 Planned exit price/indicator
3 The long road between them where I know (being honest with myself) what I will do as it twists and turns, and know it is a path I can stay on

The best short in the world doesn't count for anything if you cover at the wrong time, get blown off somehow, over-leverage when it is going your way, get spun around and due to your position decide to open/close when you would be doing the opposite if you had no position.

Short TSLA at 280 and it runs to 380, easy to find the pressure simply too much and cover. This at the same time you would be pressing to *get* short at the same 380 if you didn't already have a losing position. Everything can go wrong when shorting, which is my own theory why all the losers (crypto, tsla, cramer watchers) will only ever go long.

Yeah. That last paragraph is why dry powder is gold, and why you shouldn't enter any but the best positions. Everyone thinks about the EV of missing some move or another but no one calculates the EV of having a pile of cash and no other considerations when the big clear setups come.

I wasn't over-leveraged. And there was a unique event that I was prepared to cover on given TSLA's ability to run, which occured, and when I got a sense that the rip was unlikely to go past 271 again I tried to reenter in the 270s but didn't get filled, it only reached 269.99. Thanks for sharing your unique trading system but I don't think there's anything bad or even that interesting about that part of my trading today. Only thing I could have really done better is reenter earlier at a higher price, but hindsight is 20-20.

This was my first trade of TSLA after watching it for years. I think today was a game changer

So other than doing the exact opposite of what you should have done at every occasion you did nothing wrong?

Nothing about that deliveries report was a game changer. If you were following this thread of $tslaq you would have known about the demand collapse 3 months ago. THAT was the game changer. Now its public knowledge.

Has it been fully accounted for in the stock price? No. But it won't in the near term. The bulls are too devoted to their story. One bad quarter can't shake them. They had their talking points and graphs ready last night comparing Q1 19 to Q1 18.

"IamAnAdultNow"

I explained why I did what I did, you responded with, "wrong". Quality post! I guess I should have doubled down my short when the SEC said they just wanted to fine Musk. Cool!

And good for you that you were absolutely certain the numbers were going to be just this bad AND Tesla wasn't going to successfully put lipstick on the pig like they have done in the past so many times. You may find this remarkable given your clairvoyance, but I could have imagined a situation where TSLA actually went up after the report! Shocker! I know! But apparently I wasn't the only one since people decided to exit en masse to drop the price overnight 10% after the report. Next time send me a PM telling me now is really the time, save me some effort.

I don't know what to say. I was posting about the demand cliff and sales death for months. Its not clairvoyance its just observations and data.

If you pay attention to the stock it always drifts up on no news and/or in anticipation of news. Its a story stock- if there isn't bad news then the story can be told without interruption.

If you wanted to get in short on deliveries you have to do it before the news drops and the market reacts. Instead you got in after the stock already dropped 10%, then got back out on the bounce, then got back in again lower.

Two days, two celebrities with bricked pieces of **** because Musk makes awful cars without even basic manual override safety features. You can do this as a cool low volume high priced "first adopter" car but this will kill you in mass production.

If two celebrities in two days are having these issues, how many regular people are?? Do the probability math on that. And non-blue-checks don't get priority PR team servicing.

This guy has 1.3 million followers on Instagram. This is how you kill your brand.

Also for those of you not following this on twitter or IG before all this happened this benballer character had a custom Tesla ring made (for $40k) and Elon granted him a personal meeting due to his superfan and influencer status. Which was going to be next Tuesday.

Because benballer posted about getting locked in his car publicly the meeting is now canceled.

Amusing how you have comments on what's a game changer, making mistakes trading given your performance on the last earnings report and your own predictions on what should've happened by now. I mean you and protonewb were doing high fives about your OTM puts and how did that turn out?

LOL you're still trying to spike the football because I predicted that a 75-1 or longer shot might come in? We will never know if they actually came close to declaring instead of making the payment on the convertibles. Given the statement in the letter that 50% of their deliveries were in the last 10 days of the quarter they must have been pretty close to zero cash at that point.

Now lets see if they can make it to another end of quarter rush this time starting with something like 1.5-2 billion less cushion.

And as already explained in the moment of Deepak resigning at the end of the earnings call with no warning I got a little caught up in emotion. Did I trade on that emotion? No. Was I rational again by the next morning? Yes. Was I surprised the stock moved up after that call and the surprise resignation? Yes, I was wrong about that.

But I crushed yesterday having gone basically all in earlier this week. I also got lucky earlier in the quarter when Tesla announced layoffs the day after I bought puts.

So all in all up over 100% this quarter on Tesla trades despite my longer range OOTM puts continuing to decay.

Hey now, I admit overreacting to Deepak news, but I don't buy puts. Short positions at various prices 300-350. Certainly not covering now.

I was wrong on deliveries too, meaning I thought they would fake the numbers - of course I expected them to be actually terrible, I'm short for a reason.

It won't be straight down, could easily pump to over 300 again, I can imagine some china pumps, Autonomy Day pump, Truck reveal pump, Maxwell battery hype pump, etc etc...but the story to me is still demand cliff plus cash crunch. That should play out over the next 6-9 months but not putting a date on it. The "disaster" Q1 deliveries only brought the stock back to where it was 6 days ago. It's a marathon not a sprint.

But your puts from last ER (I'm guessing) went -100% despite how good of a feel (heh) you have for the stock price and how to trade it. Maybe it's not so easy to play after all.

Sure, I've been wrong lots. Probably overpaid on those puts.

But I would draw a distinction between a speculative play dependent on unknown future events for payoff
and
going short based on something that you think is a "gamechanger" but after it already happened and the market already reacted.

I don't really draw that distinction in a thread I've heard this company is in trouble/going under for 6 years now. Is the stock beginning to lag on a longer term basis and did bears have a nice win today overall? Sure. Still doesn't make it an easy trade or even a good risk/reward for that matter. It's still in this range despite a lot more negative sentiment from WS, even some of the most fanatical fund managers have cut their stakes. Had Imanadultnow been crushing it the feeling would've been a lot different from some of you, it's tough not to Monday morning QB like I did referencing what happened last ER.