Would the deposit number matter to a normal company? No, not at all as you point out. Its years away. They haven't developed it and they don't have the money to do so but maybe they could figure that out.

But it matters greatly to Tesla. It shows that the customer is weary of Musk and his pumps. And Tesla is entirely dependent on pumps to keep the story going. Just compare the Model Y lack of enthusiasm to the craze that was the Model 3 reveal.

Compare the tepid response to the 35k M3 being released to the initial announcement.

Compare the Boring Co tunnel demonstration to the Solar Roof reveal.

The pumps aren't working anymore.

lol Elon's suggestion fixed Crow's problem

lol, 63k. It's all over baby.

Demand death secured it seems.

How can a low-leverage long-term short play go wrong at this point? At 290 it feels like pure free money to at least short the common, or 2020 300+ strike puts. Is there any downside apart from the opportunity cost of better trades? If someone just has a chunk of cash in their brokerage account they aren't using, this play looks irresistible.

Guys, I think we finally found a crack.

case, that's all great except you ain't getting in at $290 tomorrow.

In hindsight, both the bulls and bears should have seen the below for what it was - a cry for help.

Short the common, no need to pay the huge premium on the puts, because the end will take longer than everyone expects. That said - Wow that was an awful miss. Inventory stacking up, no more backlog in europe to bail them out in Q2, not much room to cut prices. No capex to refresh S/X or even build the Y/Semi. I have to think they can't raise cause...they should have done it by now, it's absurd.

I hear a lot of talk that puts are too 'expensive'. Seems like I am missing something here in what traders mean by that word. My own analysis is simply filling in a future price distribution model and seeing what the calculator says is the highest pay-off options play. The value of the play is based on the payoffs and as long as these are good nothing can be too expensive.

Yup, puts make a lot of sense in the right spots. No such thing as too expensive. Risk vs reward on a likely probability distribution.

If you have a date in mind, sure go with puts based on that expectation. But everyone has been like the guy with the sign on the corner "THE END IS NEAR" - it may not be near.

They could stagger through Q2 and Q3 easily. Just keep delaying refunds and hoarding cash. I expect a bad Q2 would put the stock under a ton of stress, but we'll see.

I think the better play is just short the common because it's not going up much from here (sure there will be pumps - lol autopilot investors day!) but the slide down could take longer than your puts. And the January 2020 or longer dated puts are "expensive" meaning even if your rough price target is correct, you would likely do better just shorting and not paying the premium.

Ok, that makes sense. I am at 2020 at the earliest, at a 200 strike and 20$ price my models have the payoff far above a short. It would take at least 1 sharp short-cover-reshort with greater leverage to come close to matching the payoff.

I can't decide which is my favorite part of the letter:

-Stating (unprompted) that they still have "sufficient cash." (for what? payroll?)
or
-Admitting they had only sold approx 31,000 up until March 21st so they had to have made ridiculous deals on 2018 VINs and rush delivery on defective and unprepped cars to even get to this awful 63k number. Really confirms the on the ground parking lot intel on how dead everything was from 1/1 thru mid March. Now things die off again and we see if they can raise or, if not, if their cash can last through to another end of quarter blitz in three months.

I guess I thought that by now there would be a car like the Toyota Corrola except battery powered with a 60kw battery, and I assumed that by now the cost of battery/charger/electric motor would only be a few thousand more than the cost of engine/transmission/fuel pump. Then you would have a car that was in the $22k range and if it was made by a company who still had the tax credit you are talked about $15k and much cheaper to operate. Boom!

Why can't a company like Toyota/Honda make a battery powered Corolla/Accord with a 60kw battery for $25k or less? Seems like they should be able to. Honda came out with the Clarity but it only had like 80 miles of range which is not really gonna cut it.

A 60kWh battery runs to between $10-$15,000. Not a lot of car left after that. Add the electric motors and wiring and there's not much left over. There's a reason Musk flushed $10 billion in subsidies + shareholder donations down to the toilet to make his handful of cars.

Cell cost is often quoted at around $140/kWh but the battery pack is higher than that because it includes assembly and other components.

2021/2022 is when the economics flip for good-enough range and they become comparable with ICE.

Yeah the bolded gets it said. This is just a comedy show. In case anyone forgets, this bad result is with massive discounting on S&X - dropping the top models 40K+ euro a month ago!!! And price cuts before that sufficient to cover the loss of full tax credit.

Weird, it’s almost like the core of the bear thesis that was obvious to anyone remotely intelligent turns out to be completely true

Woops. Should have went all-in.

Where to cover?

im short as of 2 minutes ago. i agree it's free money from 260 to retest those lows at 250. everyone in the world should be piling in rn.

short from 261.48

All the options will be **** by open

How much rally do you the the retail bag holders can musker?

I think you could wait and get in at 270 or 275 tbh

Yeah I like a "short the pop" once the pop steam runs it.

This will ultimately hinge on institutions. If they buy at these lows it rips and if they decide to trim then we get a snowball. The money flow here is bigger than retail.

Re upped the short, BE now 264.50

well as a day trade this short sure has been garbage.

solution: never cover

Yep. If the stock is going to zero anyways, why cover? Everything in the interim is noise. Short and sell deep OTM monthly puts in the meantime.