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Old 03-20-2019, 09:04 PM   #7551
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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I can elaborate but the value of those would need to be considered material relative to FSD, which seems dubious at best





In addition to that, the contract states it is for full self driving. So applying asc 606 you would have to apply value to all the different elements of the contract. Given itís unlikely things like sentry or summon are included as part of that contract, you wouldnít be able to assign any value to them for recognition.

Thanks. Have you seen any specific contract terms re FSD? As far as I know, the purchase agreement for the car doesnít contain any and there isnít a separate contract. iirc, the ordering page also says that feature delivery is entirely subject to developing the software and regulatory approval. That is to say, itís hard to pin down what actual promises or performance obligations Tesla has. The 10k says that revenue is recognized upon delivery of features, but gives no additional detail.
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Old 03-20-2019, 10:09 PM   #7552
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Thanks. Have you seen any specific contract terms re FSD? As far as I know, the purchase agreement for the car doesnít contain any and there isnít a separate contract. iirc, the ordering page also says that feature delivery is entirely subject to developing the software and regulatory approval. That is to say, itís hard to pin down what actual promises or performance obligations Tesla has. The 10k says that revenue is recognized upon delivery of features, but gives no additional detail.
I havenít, but I find it hard to believe there isnít some click through agreement that comes with the purchase
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Old 03-21-2019, 04:03 AM   #7553
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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I havenít, but I find it hard to believe there isnít some click through agreement that comes with the purchase

Is it really that hard to believe? This is Tesla after all. I donít think there is one, after a medium amount of searching.

I donít think thereís much guidance thatís on point for this issue, but so far I havenít seen anything that suggests to me that they canít partially recognize revenue upon delivery of features short of actual FSD. That said, I donít think they can recognize revenue for FSD orders placed before the feature shuffling since those ppl already had those features via EAP.
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Old 03-21-2019, 08:05 AM   #7554
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Is it really that hard to believe? This is Tesla after all. I donít think there is one, after a medium amount of searching.

I donít think thereís much guidance thatís on point for this issue, but so far I havenít seen anything that suggests to me that they canít partially recognize revenue upon delivery of features short of actual FSD. That said, I donít think they can recognize revenue for FSD orders placed before the feature shuffling since those ppl already had those features via EAP.
I disagree that they should have any chance but honestly I have no idea anymore
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Old 03-21-2019, 09:29 AM   #7555
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

A major tech influencer on Twitter with 350K followers is calling Musk out as a dangerously irresponsible piece of **** whose software kills people. Have a look at the video - scary scary stuff.

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Old 03-21-2019, 01:42 PM   #7556
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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A major tech influencer on Twitter with 350K followers is calling Musk out as a dangerously irresponsible piece of **** whose software kills people. Have a look at the video - scary scary stuff.

It doesn't seem much more advanced than the lane assist my toyota has.
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Old 03-21-2019, 01:52 PM   #7557
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Old 03-22-2019, 04:28 PM   #7558
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Will be interesting to see if the Chiprick, etc crew shift what a good price is and reappear at some point. ETH $1,300 hodlers went on the ride of: fall to beyond tragic at 380, then gloating at 800, sad at 180, optimistic at 240, back to tragic at 85, this time it's happening at 160. Are the bagholders going to get pumped and 'average down' or load in more at 180, 90, etc?
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Old 03-22-2019, 04:43 PM   #7559
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

I have a working theory that Tesla will stay above $30 for a long time even in bankruptcy as the Musk true believers shove in hand over fist and eat up the institutional dumping to get in on a "huge opportunity", believing Musk will look after them (it's rare but not that rare for equity to come out of bankruptcy with a piece of at least some of the pie). Hence why I don't recommend bankruptcy puts below $50
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Old 03-22-2019, 05:19 PM   #7560
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Would be great to double-dip this trade after BK. Everything I see makes it look like there is just no chance of anything being left over:

https://rapercapital.com/2019/03/04/...f-youre-lucky/

The factory, IP, inventory, really are going to show as mostly worthless instruments to create the SP fraud. I assume when the judge assigns the first creditor haircut that will kill things down to sub $5.
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Old 03-22-2019, 08:20 PM   #7561
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Musk's laywer's sur reply is a fantastic read and a good example why you pay great lawyers lots of money:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/12on...CGq3Py1wH/view

I'm convinced by their arguments and I think Musk is obviously very guilty of violating the order.
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Old 03-22-2019, 09:04 PM   #7562
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Yeah, the SEC just got finessed
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Old 03-23-2019, 11:27 AM   #7563
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Will be interesting to see if the Chiprick, etc crew shift what a good price is and reappear at some point. ETH $1,300 hodlers went on the ride of: fall to beyond tragic at 380, then gloating at 800, sad at 180, optimistic at 240, back to tragic at 85, this time it's happening at 160. Are the bagholders going to get pumped and 'average down' or load in more at 180, 90, etc?
Will be interesting to see where you are in five years when the stock is still trading and you'll be as wrong as the people posting on page 1 of this thread.

Why do you think you know so much more than the market?
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Old 03-23-2019, 11:32 AM   #7564
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Enron? Valeant? Subprime mortgages in the trillions? Pot stocks? Digital currencies at $500 billion before quickly crashing to <20% of that? Madoff? Theranos? The entire multi trillion .com bubble? 1929?

The market doesn't know **** and particularly in Tesla you have a bunch of very, very stupid and excitable and highly irrational people played by Musk keeping the stock elevated, almost like a penny stock and certainly like fraudcoins and pot stocks. The retail counterparties are pure fish in this stock. If there's one stock the market isnt' going to be correct on, it's Tesla. It has all the hallmarks of previous frauds and bubbles. In many ways such as the PR cycle and the kind of people who invest it's just like a penny stock.
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Old 03-23-2019, 12:11 PM   #7565
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Musk seems like the type of guy who would hire Skilling just to **** with the authorities.
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Old 03-23-2019, 12:23 PM   #7566
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

You've literally listed every scandal in the past 100 years, yeah, if Tesla turns out to be one of those then you win. Very unlikely, especially given your own performance ITT considering you were one of the ones that has been wrong for five years with your hypothesis that Tesla will go bankrupt soon.
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Old 03-23-2019, 12:29 PM   #7567
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Tesla is looking more and more finished. The Model X was a blunder on several levels:

- Kind of ugly; lacks cool and mass appeal. The "falcon wing" doors look like they're trying way too hard. Huge blunder.
- Far too late
- Significantly more expensive than expected/promised
- Bad engineering decisions that made things run a couple of years late.
- Bad design decisions such as the rear seats not folding forward, which is very dumb and frankly unfathomable.

Even Morgan Stanley, a hyper Tesla bull, makes note of these things. Meanwhile, alternatives like the 2016 Chevy Bolt are coming out:



It's a nice looking car and you get most of your green cred/cost savings/around town electric cruising without the absurd bull**** of range anxiety and having to find a charger and stop for half an hour on long trips.

What's more, it's $33,000 in 2015 as opposed to $100,000 (or $35,000 in 2018). As batteries continue to improve more and more cars are coming out at more and more price points that will smoke Tesla, from pure electric to more compelling hybrids (imagine the 2016 Bolt in 2018 with improved performance and 2x electric range), why would you own a Tesla?

Been shorting the last couple of days, I think it's probably worth continuing to.
Why would you own a Bolt?
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Old 03-23-2019, 12:31 PM   #7568
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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And they're several years too slow. The automakers, who actually know what they're doing and are incredibly good at it, are going to make short work of Tesla. The Bolt and Leaf are the first taste of what's going to flood the market by the time Tesla finally has their Model 3 out in 2018 or later.
Could you elaborate a bit here? I am not sure if I am following.
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Old 03-23-2019, 12:35 PM   #7569
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Just been looking at the 2017 Bolt and the 2018 Leaf. They're both compelling offerings - Bolt has superior specs to the Model 3 at the same price points. Leaf as inferior range but much better price.
Do you want to give an update on this?

https://insideevs.com/chevrolet-bolt...oduction-ends/

Volt is stopped and Bolt is selling less than 2000 units per month. Well done, sir! You surely are an oracle. A charlatan if 2+2 BFI has ever known one.
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Old 03-23-2019, 12:36 PM   #7570
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

owned
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Old 03-23-2019, 12:51 PM   #7571
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It certainly isn't owned, he was at least courageous enough in making predictions, but it is a good example of a parallel universe where facts don't matter and anything predictable is the truth.
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Old 03-23-2019, 12:54 PM   #7572
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Musk was a first mover, cannot take that away from him. But all he did was light the fire under the big boys pants. Every major is now investing heavily in full scale ev production. Not to mention autonomous... Even in a perfect world where he finagles more financing and more importantly his cars are manufactured to industry standards with sufficient QA, he had his shot and blew it up his nose.
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Old 03-23-2019, 01:17 PM   #7573
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Will be interesting to see where you are in five years when the stock is still trading and you'll be as wrong as the people posting on page 1 of this thread.

Why do you think you know so much more than the market?
You don't need to wonder, what will happen if TSLA survives in the 200s+ past 2019:

-I will lose a huge amount of money by any measure
-My entire framework and model for the company will have been proven wrong
-With such a huge failure I will have to accept that I just wan't smart enough to understand what was actually happening the whole time
-Will probably pick up some humility, caution, along with wider error bars for future spots where I think I am 'smarter' than the market

It will be fair play if you want to gloat when I lose since I can't pretend I won't feel some level of smug superiority if this does go my way.
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Old 03-23-2019, 03:19 PM   #7574
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Why would you own a Bolt?
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Could you elaborate a bit here? I am not sure if I am following.
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Do you want to give an update on this?

https://insideevs.com/chevrolet-bolt...oduction-ends/

Volt is stopped and Bolt is selling less than 2000 units per month. Well done, sir! You surely are an oracle. A charlatan if 2+2 BFI has ever known one.
I have an amazing record in this thread. 30+ correct predictions, maybe 7 bad ones.

I'm merely a little early with these - 2018 was a year too soon as models got pushed back. The competition is coming and it's highly competent. Electric cars aren't hard things to make - they're way easier than ICE cars.

We already saw one model in 2018 - the iPace that you rubbished - beating Tesla in multiple European markets and making them panic so badly that Musk dropped prices 40K euro overnight (another actual fact that you flat out denied), destroying his company's margins on its most profitable product. This ass whooping happened on Jaguar's first try.

What's going to happen is pretty simple:

- When automakers want to get seriously into low and mid end EVs rather than as compliance models, as Jaguar did, they will crush Tesla on feature mix, price, service, quality, marketing. This happens very rapidly as the price vs ICE flips for a decent range, which is approaching.

Tesla EVs are ****ty, great range, wonderfully high performance cars. When non ****ty, great range, wonderfully high performance EVs come online, Tesla will need $100 billion in capital to keep growing without the ability to make profit.

Again, we already saw that play out with the the iPace destroying the S & X in markets where it was sold. Tesla completely killed their margins just to survive.

Here are the models coming in 2019, and they're finally decent range in a quality package.

Quote:
Audi e-tron 2019. The only reason for the Audi e-tron being on the list is actually because it is late. ...
Mercedes-Benz EQC 2019. ...
Mini Electric 2019. ...
BMW i3 2019. ...
Nissan Leaf 2019 with 60 kWh battery pack. ...
Porsche Taycan. ...
Kia Niro EV. ...
Volvo all-electric XC40.
Renault Zoe upgrade
Zoe in particular is very interesting and already here- it went from a low end zip-around-town electric car to a 250 mile compelling offering as a main car - in one model upgrade. I've driven both and the difference is stark. There'll be a lot more of that - the Leaf is upgrading to 62 kWh this year and Mercedes BMW etc finally have decently priced long range offerings.

Tesla's entire existence has been in a market where they have no competition, selling a mere 300K cars subsidized below cost by $10 billion in money flushed down the toilet (from the government and their shareholders). They lost that $10 billion while being able to sell at a massive markup over what a competitive market could bear.

That's not a viable business, that's a leach.
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owned
If that and "certain to be $150" are the worst in this thread then I've crushed it.
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Old 03-23-2019, 03:24 PM   #7575
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Musk was a first mover, cannot take that away from him. But all he did was light the fire under the big boys pants. Every major is now investing heavily in full scale ev production. Not to mention autonomous... Even in a perfect world where he finagles more financing and more importantly his cars are manufactured to industry standards with sufficient QA, he had his shot and blew it up his nose.
Musk has done precisely nothing except flush $10 billion down the toilet - including billions in public money - to give some rich guys some nice toys. The narrative that he's "lit a fire" or done anything worthwhile except waste vast sums of money is just nonsense.

EVs were always inevitable - at a sufficient battery density they're highly superior to ICE cars and much cheaper to make. The flip point for lower end cars is 2021-2022.

Performance long range EVs were always inevitable also and were also going to be the standard (which is why Tesla was always drawing dead). It was just a matter of getting to the point where they made economic sense as non-subsidized purchases when compared to ICE. That point has arrived for $40K+ cars and will arrive for $30K+ cars this year.
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