Thanks. Have you seen any specific contract terms re FSD? As far as I know, the purchase agreement for the car doesn’t contain any and there isn’t a separate contract. iirc, the ordering page also says that feature delivery is entirely subject to developing the software and regulatory approval. That is to say, it’s hard to pin down what actual promises or performance obligations Tesla has. The 10k says that revenue is recognized upon delivery of features, but gives no additional detail.

I haven’t, but I find it hard to believe there isn’t some click through agreement that comes with the purchase

Is it really that hard to believe? This is Tesla after all. I don’t think there is one, after a medium amount of searching.

I don’t think there’s much guidance that’s on point for this issue, but so far I haven’t seen anything that suggests to me that they can’t partially recognize revenue upon delivery of features short of actual FSD. That said, I don’t think they can recognize revenue for FSD orders placed before the feature shuffling since those ppl already had those features via EAP.

I disagree that they should have any chance but honestly I have no idea anymore

A major tech influencer on Twitter with 350K followers is calling Musk out as a dangerously irresponsible piece of **** whose software kills people. Have a look at the video - scary scary stuff.



You heard it hear first folks, years ago, against the opinion of heltok, the "expert" person who actually works in self driving who thought Tesla were ahead and had competent software.

Functioning brain that can evaluate evidence >>>>>>> expertise + fandom.

It doesn't seem much more advanced than the lane assist my toyota has.

Will be interesting to see if the Chiprick, etc crew shift what a good price is and reappear at some point. ETH $1,300 hodlers went on the ride of: fall to beyond tragic at 380, then gloating at 800, sad at 180, optimistic at 240, back to tragic at 85, this time it's happening at 160. Are the bagholders going to get pumped and 'average down' or load in more at 180, 90, etc?

I have a working theory that Tesla will stay above $30 for a long time even in bankruptcy as the Musk true believers shove in hand over fist and eat up the institutional dumping to get in on a "huge opportunity", believing Musk will look after them (it's rare but not that rare for equity to come out of bankruptcy with a piece of at least some of the pie). Hence why I don't recommend bankruptcy puts below $50

Would be great to double-dip this trade after BK. Everything I see makes it look like there is just no chance of anything being left over:

https://rapercapital.com/2019/03/04/...f-youre-lucky/

The factory, IP, inventory, really are going to show as mostly worthless instruments to create the SP fraud. I assume when the judge assigns the first creditor haircut that will kill things down to sub $5.

Musk's laywer's sur reply is a fantastic read and a good example why you pay great lawyers lots of money:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/12on...CGq3Py1wH/view

I'm convinced by their arguments and I think Musk is obviously very guilty of violating the order.

Yeah, the SEC just got finessed

Will be interesting to see where you are in five years when the stock is still trading and you'll be as wrong as the people posting on page 1 of this thread.

Why do you think you know so much more than the market?

Enron? Valeant? Subprime mortgages in the trillions? Pot stocks? Digital currencies at $500 billion before quickly crashing to <20% of that? Madoff? Theranos? The entire multi trillion .com bubble? 1929?

The market doesn't know **** and particularly in Tesla you have a bunch of very, very stupid and excitable and highly irrational people played by Musk keeping the stock elevated, almost like a penny stock and certainly like fraudcoins and pot stocks. The retail counterparties are pure fish in this stock. If there's one stock the market isnt' going to be correct on, it's Tesla. It has all the hallmarks of previous frauds and bubbles. In many ways such as the PR cycle and the kind of people who invest it's just like a penny stock.

Musk seems like the type of guy who would hire Skilling just to **** with the authorities.

You've literally listed every scandal in the past 100 years, yeah, if Tesla turns out to be one of those then you win. Very unlikely, especially given your own performance ITT considering you were one of the ones that has been wrong for five years with your hypothesis that Tesla will go bankrupt soon.

Why would you own a Bolt?

Could you elaborate a bit here? I am not sure if I am following.

Do you want to give an update on this?

https://insideevs.com/chevrolet-bolt...oduction-ends/

Volt is stopped and Bolt is selling less than 2000 units per month. Well done, sir! You surely are an oracle. A charlatan if 2+2 BFI has ever known one.

owned

It certainly isn't owned, he was at least courageous enough in making predictions, but it is a good example of a parallel universe where facts don't matter and anything predictable is the truth.

Musk was a first mover, cannot take that away from him. But all he did was light the fire under the big boys pants. Every major is now investing heavily in full scale ev production. Not to mention autonomous... Even in a perfect world where he finagles more financing and more importantly his cars are manufactured to industry standards with sufficient QA, he had his shot and blew it up his nose.

You don't need to wonder, what will happen if TSLA survives in the 200s+ past 2019:

-I will lose a huge amount of money by any measure
-My entire framework and model for the company will have been proven wrong
-With such a huge failure I will have to accept that I just wan't smart enough to understand what was actually happening the whole time
-Will probably pick up some humility, caution, along with wider error bars for future spots where I think I am 'smarter' than the market

It will be fair play if you want to gloat when I lose since I can't pretend I won't feel some level of smug superiority if this does go my way.

I have an amazing record in this thread. 30+ correct predictions, maybe 7 bad ones.

I'm merely a little early with these - 2018 was a year too soon as models got pushed back. The competition is coming and it's highly competent. Electric cars aren't hard things to make - they're way easier than ICE cars.

We already saw one model in 2018 - the iPace that you rubbished - beating Tesla in multiple European markets and making them panic so badly that Musk dropped prices 40K euro overnight (another actual fact that you flat out denied), destroying his company's margins on its most profitable product. This ass whooping happened on Jaguar's first try.

What's going to happen is pretty simple:

- When automakers want to get seriously into low and mid end EVs rather than as compliance models, as Jaguar did, they will crush Tesla on feature mix, price, service, quality, marketing. This happens very rapidly as the price vs ICE flips for a decent range, which is approaching.

Tesla EVs are ****ty, great range, wonderfully high performance cars. When non ****ty, great range, wonderfully high performance EVs come online, Tesla will need $100 billion in capital to keep growing without the ability to make profit.

Again, we already saw that play out with the the iPace destroying the S & X in markets where it was sold. Tesla completely killed their margins just to survive.

Here are the models coming in 2019, and they're finally decent range in a quality package.

Zoe in particular is very interesting and already here- it went from a low end zip-around-town electric car to a 250 mile compelling offering as a main car - in one model upgrade. I've driven both and the difference is stark. There'll be a lot more of that - the Leaf is upgrading to 62 kWh this year and Mercedes BMW etc finally have decently priced long range offerings.

Tesla's entire existence has been in a market where they have no competition, selling a mere 300K cars subsidized below cost by $10 billion in money flushed down the toilet (from the government and their shareholders). They lost that $10 billion while being able to sell at a massive markup over what a competitive market could bear.

That's not a viable business, that's a leach.
If that and "certain to be $150" are the worst in this thread then I've crushed it.

Musk has done precisely nothing except flush $10 billion down the toilet - including billions in public money - to give some rich guys some nice toys. The narrative that he's "lit a fire" or done anything worthwhile except waste vast sums of money is just nonsense.

EVs were always inevitable - at a sufficient battery density they're highly superior to ICE cars and much cheaper to make. The flip point for lower end cars is 2021-2022.

Performance long range EVs were always inevitable also and were also going to be the standard (which is why Tesla was always drawing dead). It was just a matter of getting to the point where they made economic sense as non-subsidized purchases when compared to ICE. That point has arrived for $40K+ cars and will arrive for $30K+ cars this year.