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Old 03-16-2019, 10:24 AM   #7501
SuperSwag
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

When would Q1 earnings call be? June?
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Old 03-16-2019, 10:30 AM   #7502
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Somewhere around May 1.
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Old 03-16-2019, 11:06 AM   #7503
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Quote:
Originally Posted by donfairplay View Post
Elon seemed more distracted and stuttered more than usual in the model y livestream, at least compared to the model 3 livestream. Anyone else see it?

I don't want to say he was inebriated, but...
Anyone have a link to the video that was on Twitter of Musk looking out of it while drinking water at a SpaceX press conference
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Old 03-16-2019, 03:22 PM   #7504
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Originally Posted by Gene Rayburn View Post
I've been waiting these past 7 years for my chance...
You nailed it
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Old 03-16-2019, 08:41 PM   #7505
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

https://www.theverge.com/2019/3/6/18...dig-plans-2021

Elon building another tunnel - this one under Vegas. 35-55 mil to build his CES 2021 exhibit...ballin!
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Old 03-18-2019, 02:49 PM   #7506
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

[IMG][/IMG]

[IMG][/IMG]
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Old 03-18-2019, 04:00 PM   #7507
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

From that article (https://www.theverge.com/2019/3/6/18...dig-plans-2021)



This is peak Elon Musk. 5% reality (used loosely), 95% "conceptual future".
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Old 03-18-2019, 04:56 PM   #7508
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Covered short, cmon Elon give us another pump!
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Old 03-18-2019, 05:50 PM   #7509
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Seems like a bad time to cover
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Old 03-18-2019, 06:10 PM   #7510
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

trading range bro...everyone counting on a bounce before 250...maybe not this time.
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Old 03-18-2019, 06:29 PM   #7511
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Originally Posted by syndr0me View Post
Seems like a bad time to cover
why?
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Old 03-18-2019, 06:44 PM   #7512
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Seems like you can just ride a short into the ground as the best choice (add on at good spots while not getting over-leveraged when it gets low and will have pointless 30% rallies)

I wouldn't mind covering shorter term options here. Long term high strike (my main position) I'd just keep open. A small pump that fails at <300 won't add much and opens up the chance of missing out on a meltdown that could strike at any time.

They are discounting very heavily now. Everything is setting up for a big Q1 miss here as the EOQ push is starting to run out of time, soon it will simply be impossible for them to put up good volume numbers aside from a cheat sale of 10-15k to god knows who.

Good breakdown of the SR+ from TMC

Quote:
What if toyota sold the sr5 4 runner for $37k, their limited for $49k and then came out with the PARTIAL limited for $39k? It would have the same interior and exterior as the limited except the gas tank is smaller and some of the speakers are disabled. Would that kill the sales of both the SR5 and limited and wreck the value of the limited? That sounds like a pretty dumb idea. That is the sr+ in a nutshell.

Last edited by case3; 03-18-2019 at 06:53 PM.
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Old 03-18-2019, 07:06 PM   #7513
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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why?
What hype is left? The only move I can see is if they have good delivery numbers for q1 because of the deep discounting, if that goes well maybe a small bump that will be wiped away with q1 results. Basically you are hoping for a fraud bump, not the worst test theory to be fair.

In addition you have the possible march 26th SEC issue, desperate cash situation and the constant attempts at pumps that are failing. I mean what is left to move the stock up?
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Old 03-18-2019, 07:46 PM   #7514
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

There are a few moves left...Discounts like crazy to make Q1 deliveries look respectable, deliver everything in the euro reservation book, capture FSD revenue by claiming "mostly feature complete", Model Y deposits recognized as revenue because it's a "service fee" not a "deposit".

But there's not much more and any/all of these will make Q2 look that much worse. So sure, Q1 might bring a pump but the long term story is the same - no growth whatsoever. No reason to cover just keep shorting on these last gasp pumps.

The market isn't buying these pumps anymore, it's just been a slow bleed on the lofty multiple from the start of the year. Other than robinhood/retail investors, nobody wants the stock at this multiple.
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Old 03-18-2019, 07:55 PM   #7515
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

The stock would be in absolute freefall if not for the retail baggies buying this hand over fist. On days when it was down 5%, retail was buying 3:1 over selling. The massive discounting across all models and price ranges got even the starry eyed institutions to wonder what the heck was going on, because as dumb as they may be, they at least understand some business fundamentals unlike the retail baggies. Because you simply don't do discounts like that if either cash is fine or there is unlimited demand.
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Old 03-18-2019, 08:07 PM   #7516
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Quote:
Originally Posted by protonewb View Post
There are a few moves left...Discounts like crazy to make Q1 deliveries look respectable, deliver everything in the euro reservation book, capture FSD revenue by claiming "mostly feature complete", Model Y deposits recognized as revenue because it's a "service fee" not a "deposit".

But there's not much more and any/all of these will make Q2 look that much worse. So sure, Q1 might bring a pump but the long term story is the same - no growth whatsoever. No reason to cover just keep shorting on these last gasp pumps.

The market isn't buying these pumps anymore, it's just been a slow bleed on the lofty multiple from the start of the year. Other than robinhood/retail investors, nobody wants the stock at this multiple.
These are getting pretty thin:

-Discounts like crazy: Already done, if he walks back the 3% rise with more cuts...lol

-EU book: Only 3? ships left and it seems like the book is already most done, reports of new orders getting almost instant delivery.

-FSD revenue: They can re-define this to take more but can they take it all? Anything here would look desperate and risk bringing the FSD vaporware house of cards down.

-Model Y: Order tracker just made it past 10(!) entries, even if they pull this in there simply isn't enough to make any real impact.
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Old 03-18-2019, 08:11 PM   #7517
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

SEC reply brief dropped this afternoon and its glorious.

Check tortured, stunning, ridiculous, shifting, unilateral, frivolous, "strains credulity", and "brazen disregard" off on your Bingo cards.
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Old 03-18-2019, 08:19 PM   #7518
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Quote:
Originally Posted by case3 View Post
-EU book: Only 3? ships left and it seems like the book is already most done, reports of new orders getting almost instant delivery.
The French and Dutch sites I just checked have delivery in March for the Model 3 (May for S/X after massive 40K euro discounts overnight a few weeks ago). March is finished in less than two weeks.

High and middle Model 3 demand is dead in Europe.

edit: Even in the US everything but the ultra-cheapo Model 3 is <2 weeks delivery. The ultra cheapo is 6-8 weeks, but I'm not sure how many are being produced (they're still filling partial demand for mid range obviously). Q2 is shaping up to be very ugly. Nothing in the pipeline, big losses, weak demand.

Last edited by ToothSayer; 03-18-2019 at 08:31 PM.
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Old 03-18-2019, 08:29 PM   #7519
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Quote:
Originally Posted by MrFeelNothin View Post
SEC reply brief dropped this afternoon and its glorious.

Check tortured, stunning, ridiculous, shifting, unilateral, frivolous, "strains credulity", and "brazen disregard" off on your Bingo cards.
It was awesome.

For attorneys, sometimes you see something that makes you want to just sit down, bust out the cigs and liquor and savor each moment as to how to royally **** the other side after reading the complete nonsense that they wrote, and not care about how much it costs or if you have to take a loss in submitting hours or write off fees for the client, because the other side just simply needs a good ****ing and deserves every moment of it.

That was the SEC attorney who wrote this brief.
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Old 03-18-2019, 08:32 PM   #7520
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Quote:
Originally Posted by protonewb View Post
There are a few moves left...Discounts like crazy to make Q1 deliveries look respectable, deliver everything in the euro reservation book, capture FSD revenue by claiming "mostly feature complete", Model Y deposits recognized as revenue because it's a "service fee" not a "deposit".

But there's not much more and any/all of these will make Q2 look that much worse. So sure, Q1 might bring a pump but the long term story is the same - no growth whatsoever. No reason to cover just keep shorting on these last gasp pumps.

The market isn't buying these pumps anymore, it's just been a slow bleed on the lofty multiple from the start of the year. Other than robinhood/retail investors, nobody wants the stock at this multiple.
FSD recognition seems near impossible imo
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Old 03-18-2019, 08:36 PM   #7521
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Originally Posted by Mori****a System View Post
It was awesome.

For attorneys, sometimes you see something that makes you want to just sit down, bust out the cigs and liquor and savor each moment as to how to royally **** the other side after reading the complete nonsense that they wrote, and not care about how much it costs or if you have to take a loss in submitting hours or write off fees for the client, because the other side just simply needs a good ****ing and deserves every moment of it.

That was the SEC attorney who wrote this brief.
It's obvious the staff of the SEC has enough of this worthless prick flagrantly abusing US securities laws to the detriment of all. I wonder if Clayton dare intervene any more like he did the first time. He might have a staff revolt on his hands.

What do you think will be relief in this case? Another wrist slap? By any standards Musk should be removed as the officer of any public company at least for a period of time. Protecting the long standing regulations and practices and interests of fair dealing in the US capital markets >>>>>>>>>>>> a few Tesla shareholders at this point.
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Old 03-18-2019, 08:42 PM   #7522
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Originally Posted by ToothSayer View Post
It's obvious the staff of the SEC has enough of this worthless prick flagrantly abusing US securities laws to the detriment of all. I wonder if Clayton dare intervene any more like he did the first time. He might have a staff revolt on his hands.

What do you think will be relief in this case? Another wrist slap? By any standards Musk should be removed as the officer of any public company at least for a period of time. Protecting the long standing regulations and practices and interests of fair dealing in the US capital markets >>>>>>>>>>>> a few Tesla shareholders at this point.
It's a request for a finding of contempt, so the remedy will be up to the judge. Unlike Clayton, judges do not have to be fair or proportionate in determining appropriate sanctions for a contempt finding, and oftentimes they are not fair.

Would be hilarious if she requires Musk to step down.
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Old 03-18-2019, 08:50 PM   #7523
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer View Post
It's obvious the staff of the SEC has enough of this worthless prick flagrantly abusing US securities laws to the detriment of all. I wonder if Clayton dare intervene any more like he did the first time. He might have a staff revolt on his hands.

What do you think will be relief in this case? Another wrist slap? By any standards Musk should be removed as the officer of any public company at least for a period of time. Protecting the long standing regulations and practices and interests of fair dealing in the US capital markets >>>>>>>>>>>> a few Tesla shareholders at this point.
Elon demonstrated through his clear disregard for the agreement that the SEC should have followed through with its demand for an offider and director bar initially but at this point how does that happen? Sanctions for civil contempt only last until the disobedient party comes into compliance. For example a fine of a certain $ amount per day until comply or jail until comply. An officer and director bar is permanent so doesn't make sense as a sanction for contempt.

Unless the SEC can leverage a settlement with Tesla's board (who is also in contempt as clearly laid out in footnote 2 on page 3 of the reply brief) I don't see how they can get to a director and officer bar without filing a new lawsuit. As part of the agreement they agreed to drop that request and now they are limited to asking the court to enforce the agreement.
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Old 03-18-2019, 08:53 PM   #7524
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mori****a System View Post
It's a request for a finding of contempt, so the remedy will be up to the judge. Unlike Clayton, judges do not have to be fair or proportionate in determining appropriate sanctions for a contempt finding, and oftentimes they are not fair.

Would be hilarious if she requires Musk to step down.
Isn't the sanction intended to force compliance with the agreement?

I understand there is no proportionality requirement but ordering Musk to step down doesn't promote compliance it tears the agreement up. Which is maybe the motion the SEC should have filed if there are legal grounds- rescind the agreement.
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Old 03-18-2019, 09:00 PM   #7525
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Originally Posted by MrFeelNothin View Post
Isn't the sanction intended to force compliance with the agreement?

I understand there is no proportionality requirement but ordering Musk to step down doesn't promote compliance it tears the agreement up. Which is maybe the motion the SEC should have filed if there are legal grounds- rescind the agreement.
She could do something like force him to vacate the CEO position until such time he and Tesla come into compliance or create a policy that comes into compliance with the settlement to the satisfaction of the SEC.

The point of the sanctions should be coercive. If a $40m fine was simply "worth it", perhaps monetary sanctions aren't enough.
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