Delivery numbers are too public, and have been bad - but I expect ol' elon to cook the books on Q1 and turn a slight profit - booking Model Y deposits as revenue will probably be part of it. That should be one of the last pumps.

After Q1 the europe backlog is gone, there is no china backlog, and the US is still barely moving even with price cuts. There is zero reason for this to trade at a multiple of a growth stock.

Once it's below 250, the "range traders" will stop buying. Below 220 or so elon gets margin calls and I think it should be solidly in the 100s after that.

When would Q1 earnings call be? June?

Somewhere around May 1.

Anyone have a link to the video that was on Twitter of Musk looking out of it while drinking water at a SpaceX press conference

You nailed it

https://www.theverge.com/2019/3/6/18...dig-plans-2021

Elon building another tunnel - this one under Vegas. 35-55 mil to build his CES 2021 exhibit...ballin!

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From that article (https://www.theverge.com/2019/3/6/18...dig-plans-2021)



This is peak Elon Musk. 5% reality (used loosely), 95% "conceptual future".

Covered short, cmon Elon give us another pump!

Seems like a bad time to cover

trading range bro...everyone counting on a bounce before 250...maybe not this time.

why?

Seems like you can just ride a short into the ground as the best choice (add on at good spots while not getting over-leveraged when it gets low and will have pointless 30% rallies)

I wouldn't mind covering shorter term options here. Long term high strike (my main position) I'd just keep open. A small pump that fails at <300 won't add much and opens up the chance of missing out on a meltdown that could strike at any time.

They are discounting very heavily now. Everything is setting up for a big Q1 miss here as the EOQ push is starting to run out of time, soon it will simply be impossible for them to put up good volume numbers aside from a cheat sale of 10-15k to god knows who.

Good breakdown of the SR+ from TMC

What hype is left? The only move I can see is if they have good delivery numbers for q1 because of the deep discounting, if that goes well maybe a small bump that will be wiped away with q1 results. Basically you are hoping for a fraud bump, not the worst test theory to be fair.

In addition you have the possible march 26th SEC issue, desperate cash situation and the constant attempts at pumps that are failing. I mean what is left to move the stock up?

There are a few moves left...Discounts like crazy to make Q1 deliveries look respectable, deliver everything in the euro reservation book, capture FSD revenue by claiming "mostly feature complete", Model Y deposits recognized as revenue because it's a "service fee" not a "deposit".

But there's not much more and any/all of these will make Q2 look that much worse. So sure, Q1 might bring a pump but the long term story is the same - no growth whatsoever. No reason to cover just keep shorting on these last gasp pumps.

The market isn't buying these pumps anymore, it's just been a slow bleed on the lofty multiple from the start of the year. Other than robinhood/retail investors, nobody wants the stock at this multiple.

The stock would be in absolute freefall if not for the retail baggies buying this hand over fist. On days when it was down 5%, retail was buying 3:1 over selling. The massive discounting across all models and price ranges got even the starry eyed institutions to wonder what the heck was going on, because as dumb as they may be, they at least understand some business fundamentals unlike the retail baggies. Because you simply don't do discounts like that if either cash is fine or there is unlimited demand.

These are getting pretty thin:

-Discounts like crazy: Already done, if he walks back the 3% rise with more cuts...lol

-EU book: Only 3? ships left and it seems like the book is already most done, reports of new orders getting almost instant delivery.

-FSD revenue: They can re-define this to take more but can they take it all? Anything here would look desperate and risk bringing the FSD vaporware house of cards down.

-Model Y: Order tracker just made it past 10(!) entries, even if they pull this in there simply isn't enough to make any real impact.

SEC reply brief dropped this afternoon and its glorious.

Check tortured, stunning, ridiculous, shifting, unilateral, frivolous, "strains credulity", and "brazen disregard" off on your Bingo cards.

The French and Dutch sites I just checked have delivery in March for the Model 3 (May for S/X after massive 40K euro discounts overnight a few weeks ago). March is finished in less than two weeks.

High and middle Model 3 demand is dead in Europe.

edit: Even in the US everything but the ultra-cheapo Model 3 is <2 weeks delivery. The ultra cheapo is 6-8 weeks, but I'm not sure how many are being produced (they're still filling partial demand for mid range obviously). Q2 is shaping up to be very ugly. Nothing in the pipeline, big losses, weak demand.

It was awesome.

For attorneys, sometimes you see something that makes you want to just sit down, bust out the cigs and liquor and savor each moment as to how to royally **** the other side after reading the complete nonsense that they wrote, and not care about how much it costs or if you have to take a loss in submitting hours or write off fees for the client, because the other side just simply needs a good ****ing and deserves every moment of it.

That was the SEC attorney who wrote this brief.

FSD recognition seems near impossible imo

It's obvious the staff of the SEC has enough of this worthless prick flagrantly abusing US securities laws to the detriment of all. I wonder if Clayton dare intervene any more like he did the first time. He might have a staff revolt on his hands.

What do you think will be relief in this case? Another wrist slap? By any standards Musk should be removed as the officer of any public company at least for a period of time. Protecting the long standing regulations and practices and interests of fair dealing in the US capital markets >>>>>>>>>>>> a few Tesla shareholders at this point.

It's a request for a finding of contempt, so the remedy will be up to the judge. Unlike Clayton, judges do not have to be fair or proportionate in determining appropriate sanctions for a contempt finding, and oftentimes they are not fair.

Would be hilarious if she requires Musk to step down.

Elon demonstrated through his clear disregard for the agreement that the SEC should have followed through with its demand for an offider and director bar initially but at this point how does that happen? Sanctions for civil contempt only last until the disobedient party comes into compliance. For example a fine of a certain $ amount per day until comply or jail until comply. An officer and director bar is permanent so doesn't make sense as a sanction for contempt.

Unless the SEC can leverage a settlement with Tesla's board (who is also in contempt as clearly laid out in footnote 2 on page 3 of the reply brief) I don't see how they can get to a director and officer bar without filing a new lawsuit. As part of the agreement they agreed to drop that request and now they are limited to asking the court to enforce the agreement.

Isn't the sanction intended to force compliance with the agreement?

I understand there is no proportionality requirement but ordering Musk to step down doesn't promote compliance it tears the agreement up. Which is maybe the motion the SEC should have filed if there are legal grounds- rescind the agreement.