115K reservations already as of the presentation. Should be an interesting number tomorrow.

Car looks nice. Very much a cool "must own". I was hoping he'd have a zinger to send the stock up, but it seems he left nothing up his sleeve.

That windshield. Pretty nice interior and a lot of standard at 35k. 200k reservations 48h?

Yea I can't believe Autopilot and Supercharger access are standard at 35k.

If the frame is aluminum, which it looked to be from the models, you may well be right at 40kwh standard battery. I've pretty much been wrong at every turn, but yea 200k in 48h seems obtainable.

Should be interesting to see how much of this was potentially priced in vs. it taking off tomorrow. Incredible to me that they got 100k reservations sight unseen.

Really like the exterior looks of the car. Not so sure about the interior / lack of a dash. Looking forward to more pictures/details.

OMG:

Holy **** that car looks sexy as hell.

115k before the unveiling

Demand not going to be an issue anytime soon. Now if they can just make the cars....

They certainly don't have to spend money on advertising. Trumpesque...

I want one!

Lost so much money by selling this stock by listening to the dissenters in this thread :/

Why I listen to random people on the internet that have no idea what they are talking about, I have no idea.

Quite honestly, because the dissenters believe in this conspiracy theory where Elon Musk is the evil liar and is deceiving everyone.


Look at this Montana clown linked earlier in the thread. He was claiming the Gigafactory was delayed by three years. He was more or less the only one on the internet claiming it yet it was repeated here multiple times.
Not only was it never delayed, even the original claim was more or less irrelevant since the Gigafactory output is supposed to produce 35 GWh of batteries p.a.
It would be of no use to Tesla to produce that number in 2017 given that their Model 3 production will most likely not ramp up to 700,000 cars.

The truth about the Gigafactory:
http://www.thecountrycaller.com/6776...uction-delays/

In the Model 3 presentation the Company said the Gigafactory is fully operational.


Their conspiracy theory makes sense and is appealing to the uninformed readers because the claims are in itself coherent and conclusive. They are just not based on reality.

‏@elonmusk
Thought it would slow way down today, but Model 3 order count is now at 198k. Recommend ordering soon, as the wait time is growing rapidly.

So like 7-8 billion or so in pre-orders around the 36 hour mark. Notbad.gif

People. Refundable.

mktcap is $31.5 billion so it might be worth $3 billion in profit. From two days of orders. 70% taxes. Might be fairly to under valued.

Yeah, but its still a ~200 million interest free loan. And a damn good prospect list for future sales.

I've got the fastest model they make and have conservatively done 1,000 ~3s 0-60 runs in 14 months and my battery capacity has declined 1.2% over those 14 months. Pretty much every authority I've read suggests that the real killer for battery life and capacity is not discharge rate, but high charge levels and high temperatures. Tesla has a very powerful active battery management system that controls the temperature and they strongly encourage you not to charge above 90% capacity unless you plan to drive it immediately.

What do we think the real conversion rate for these pre-orders ends up being? I suspect there are a lot of people who already know they're very unlikely to buy who reserved then a good amount more who would like to buy it, but don't realize the federal tax credits will likely be cut in half or more by the time they get theres and the options they want will take it into the $43-48k range and will be priced out. Then of course you have the small group of people who can't make it work economically anymore (had kids, lost a job, stretched on a house, etc.).

I'm guessing they convert on maybe 30% of the preorders that come in through the end of this weekend.

Current best estimates on Model X cancellation rate is 15-17%. So I don't think 70% cancellation is likely.

At this rate it's likely the entire first year production will be filling pre-orders.

The $5,000 deposit on a model X is a much larger hurdle than the $1,000 on the model 3. Also, I suspect there are numerous people who won't even be in the market for a car or willing to pay for this one who reserved one because they figured they'd rather have the option to decline it in 18 months than not have the option even though they're maybe 10% likely to follow through. I have talked to 4 friends in this position and am on the fence myself even though I am <10% to buy ANY car in the next 5 years.

I'd guess cancellation rate of 30-50%. Elon tweeted average option mix should run 42k and as of 2 hours ago at 198k orders.

Mar 29th: "The age of car ownership is coming to an end"
Apr 1st: "Hey, did you get your deposit down for the Model 3?"

Asked about the explosion of interest in Model 3, GM CEO Mary Barra replied: "Frankly, I don't think it's real. Here at GM we've done more research into the EV market than anybody. And all the focus groups tell us the same thing. What EV buyers want, first and foremost, is a vehicle whose styling and performance look ready to suck every vaguely phallic object in a 100-mile radius. That's why we made the Bolt, and we're confident it will hugely outsell Tesla's Model 3 when all is said and done."

I love the fact that he thinks focus groups are an indicator for anything.

*she

As of this morning we are talking about 253k pre orders. Pretty sick if you ask me. I doubt that cancellation will be an issue for them, while the percentage will be quite high there are lots of people willing to fill the gap and until then it's an interest free loan.

Doesn't the tax credit expire over 200k? There has to be a way for people who buy to know that they aren't getting the 7500 gov't rebate right?