ITT we learn from Tesla bulls that Tesla "autopilot" is properly compared to crappy general aviation light plane autopilots. My work here is done

I'm not a bull, but I am reminded of a recent post about you

The gist was:

Seeing you be so vehemently wrong about things that I KNOW you are wrong about makes it really hard to assume you are right when I don't know if you are right or wrong.

You might have to question the corners cut to provide a 10 course molecular gastronomy dish at a 50$ price point. Just like you might have to question the corners cut to make a retail automobile autopilot financially viable as well.

Or not, people are free to make their own decisions.

SR coming in at 59lbs lighter than MR. This means no drivetrain build difference (a dozen hides and seat motors can account for the weight decrease) and no possible way to work the numbers to anything besides a big loss on each sale.

They needed to produce these at scale with a lower cost battery pack, Elon ran out of time and is stalling collapse a few months with this play. All model 3's just took a big hit, used resale values will continue to dive, existing MR stock that can't move is now de-valued again. Potential lease partners avoided a residual disaster here.

Euro clowns all overpaid 5k or so, will be interesting to see how many press for returns, EU consumer laws have a reasonable amount of bite.

Tesla loses money in Q1 and Q2, takes re-structuring charges etc.. After firing their entire sales force they will cut solar out, all staff have to looking for new work by this point, sucks to get fired by meme tweet. This is all working out to a company liquidating itself in broad daylight, except the SP is pumping close to ATH levels..

https://twitter.com/Paul_M_Huettner/...66772710383616

“The announcement is meaningless” is an absurd take. Putting aside the fact that there’s no evidence they can build a 35k model 3 with positive gross margin, they also cut prices across the board on S/X/3 and announced they were moving all sales online (meaning store closings and more layoffs). Releasing the 35k model 3 now also implies demand in europe and US is weak, and the price cuts piss off European customers who have already paid/taken delivery while they are rolling it out to begin with.

An underlooked aspect for bears is this was it. There are no more pumps in the pipeline right now or Elon would have used them tonight. No Y. No pickup. No semi. No raise.

Meanwhile on the downside for potential bad news we have:
-Feb deliveries
-SEC Order to Show Cause proceedings
-Other SEC/DOJ shoes to drop?
-Interviews with laid off workers
-More layoffs at Giga and Fremont?
-More service hell
-Euro ****show including cancellations and maybe refund requests as a result of price cut
-Competitiors coming to market
-Potential for Elon to tweet something stupid
-Another whompy wheel or autopilot accident bringing increased scrutiny and possible govt action
-Bankruptcy/restructuring!
-Q1 guidance revision
-Maxwell deal falls through?
-Something weird happening with converts tomorrow
-Supplier issues

Just a quick list of known risks. Some more likely than others. Am sure there are unknown downside risks as well.

Still around 310 pre market.

I hope a bunch of you are making a bundle on the weeklies today. If you believed the handicapping of the distributions for various possibilities for the announcement that were being touted here, the highest probability for the announcement was the 35k price and operational cuts (layoffs) which really brings the growth story into question and heading into the weekend a sell-off was probable given the run-up.

My post was a bit unclear in response to Keeed. He implied that since bears stated Elon had yet to sell a $35k Model 3 after promising to do so, that they were somehow undermining their position by pointing out that this new offering helps the bear thesis. So when I said the announcement was meaningless I meant that in the context of Musk crushing the bears - he needs to sustainably do it at profitable levels for the move to be meaningful.

I agree that given context, the move is obviously bad for them and the market agrees.

Can anyone point me where I should go to learn how to create the distribution from the option prices?

Try optionpricedistribution.com

And does anyone know when we get confirmation that the bond payment was made?

February deliveries out from InsideEvs. Of course there are four paragraphs of bull**** before you get to the numbers but....

Tesla sold less than 1,440 Model 3s/week in February in the US. 5,750 for the month.

Model S dropped another 10% m/m in the US (and was very soft in Europe) but they did move a few more Xs- up 15% m/m.

I am so grateful for the very very stupid people who are long Tesla. Days like today are a gift, getting to enter at >$303 after that news.

In other news, Europe high end S&X prices appear to have been dropped >20% overnight. You can now buy new flagship P100D for cheaper than non-P100D used. Crazy stuff. This is a company with its demand dead at yesterday's prices and in a desperate cash crunch after paying the bonds.

It really all comes down to how many model 3s can Tesla sell when the $35,000 model is added to the mix. If it's 7,000 a week they're probably in great shape. If it's 3,000 a week they're dead. Anyone saying with confidence they know the answer to that question right now is probably like that tooth sayer guy talking about aircraft autopilots.

But yeah we're going to have to wait and see. How many cars Tesla is going to sell and how patient the stockholders are going to be are the big questions. Have to see how it unfolds.

Business school with SenorKeed:

If this cash starved company can push even more units of product at a big loss per unit they're in great shape!

Stick to being wrong about autopilot bro.

You act as if you've demonstrated that the cars are going to be sold at a big loss per unit.

If Tesla is becoming a more mainstream car manufacturer, the hyper growth story is over and the stock should trade like its peers, sub 100.
Having said that, I am making no bets on where it's going and keep enjoying the show.

I have.

From the past two quarters, we know for a fact that Tesla breaks even at:

1. ~$60K ASP on Model 3
2. Model S/X prices 20% higher than before the huge cut overnight which were effectively already subsidizing the M3 as these are very high priced cars ($70K - $130K) on mature lines.
3. SG&A incredibly low and very low (non-growth) capex, etc

In what universe are they now profitable on $35K Model 3? They could have made massive improvements in costs and they'd still be losing >$5K per car.

So it has been demonstrated. You want to argue the above?

Tooth,


You forget, they are cutting showroom staff.

This was 11 days ago. Aging well.

Sure. Where did you show that Telsa loses money on, say, a $50,000 model 3? And at what volume?

My god those Feb deliveries were unreal bad.

The ol' buy the rumor and sell the news, but in this case the news wasn't even that good (35k M3) and was being used to cover for even worse news (layoffs, no Q1 profit, Feb deliveries).

For the last year elon has been saying the 35k M3 would require a cheaper battery but it turns out they are just software-limiting the same ol battery. RIP margins. This plus the other price cuts feels like a liquidation sale to grab as much cash as possible to keep the lights on another few months.

Inb4 bulls say "oh it's just the 250-350 trading range"

Is there any path to 2020 for them now?

>Current moves buy them 1-2 months

>Ultra bad convert deal or something for xb gets them into summer

>>At this point the FIT halves again, demand #s can't be avoided, competitors are hitting hard


My original guess was always fall 2019 as the end.