So this confirms demand is dead, will the 35k model increase demand significantly?

So far on the feed -

Closing almost all stores and moving sales online only - a small number of high traffic locations may remain open as galleries

Massive price cuts across the board (again)

Can return a car within 7 days or 1k miles for full refund

Increased attention to service: aiming for same day or same hour service

I have to admit, I burst into laughter at the last two.

LOLLLLL cue SenorKeeeeed

But how does this confirm the bear thesis?

and

But how are direct observations of dead retail locations meaningful?

This is a desperate cash grab with the bond payment taking $1 billion off their cash and high and medium end demand dead. The bear thesis of high end demand death is playing out exactly, maybe even more strongly than we'd predicted.

Delivery is "2-4 weeks". If they get 30K full payment orders before delivering, that $1 billion in cash to keep operations going a bit longer. They can stretch that out for weeks and pile up cash, citing "production hell" or some nonsense.

This is definitely worth it for them. Probably their only option. Confirmed demand death in this quarter's numbers is the death of the narrative and it will sink the stock price and destroy the chance of any secondary underwriting or loans. This way they get to keep numbers up for longer. Losing $5K/car on 100K cars is only $500m. Probably helps with their loan situation as well as they can play with inventory.

Bears: "Musk hasn't been able to deliver on his promise of $35,000 Model 3! Clear sign that Tesla is doomed!"

Also Bears: "Tesla is selling $35,000 model 3s. Clear sign of disaster for Tesla!"

Right on cue.

Care to comment on Tesla closing its stores and going online only? Still think on the ground intel is worthless?

Yeah man, basement dwellers making breathless Alex Jones style videos of parking lots with...my god...CARS in them is most definitely useless.

I need some possible argument against emptying the rest of the clip short here. SP is close to ATH levels while receiving total confirmation of collapse. Possibles:

1 > Current information still leaves wide enough error bars in the demand collapse thesis. This is really hard to see but since it underpins everything its' worth looking at. All I have are the points against it:

-Multiple verified, cross-referenced, consistent, in-person observations of delivery levels show US collapse. Cannot be explained away solely on seasonality, has to get worse as competition and lower FIT become factors. Brand value sinking hard due to cash conservation on service.

-EU demand backlog ended up less than 20k, runrate demand may be less than 1k a week. Euros never liked US cars, Tesla has no support infrastructure, VW, Audi, MB, are coming soon. Huge tax credits that drove everything in NL, NO are over.

-China is a few K demand. Oversaturated domestic market, tariffs, etc..

2 > Just because it's game over now doesn't mean it's the best short now. It was game over at 260 before Q3 as well and that only burned me. I have no idea what the ultimate 'limit' in the gap of reality to SP is, the chances of higher payoff, better odds trades coming up might be high enough to want to hold off right now.

how are the cars availabe in 2-4 weeks when they are supposed to have hundreds of thousands of reservations at that price point?

you know funds normally pay people to count trucks, fly over factories or watch store traffic and all that stuff, right?

This is bad, even for you Keeed. Anybody can operate at a loss in the short term - ask MoviePass.

Obviously Musk being able to sell $35k Model 3s profitably with sufficient demand kills the bear thesis.

This announcement means nothing until we see what plays out.

This.

Big price cuts, another round of layoffs...no other "good news" - china, model y, other funding...and yet the stock is higher than where it started 3 days ago. Well done (for now!!).

But long term, this sucker is a mess.

Who were the morons who were expected Tesla to enter the S&P 500/be permanently profitable?

Keep digging.

Those Alex Jones parking lot truthers provided extremely valuable information on the lack of demand. For free.

You guys have to agree with me it's incredible it isn't down 10%+ right at the reopen of the halt. They don't know what demand is for the lower priced version that will be lower margin (Elon claiming he's going by his gut). Clearly this was the goal but to make it long term you have to make/sell it profitably and that's a major question mark. It's the uncertainty that should crack confidence and yet it's still not even down that much so far.

Seems like they are trying to undersell the $35k version. It has the worst interior and for only $2k more you get the mid-tier interior + 10% more range. It seems dumb to even offer it just so he can claim that he kept his promise.

The $43k version seems to be the best value as you get maximum range and the best interior.

It's not a question mark. We know for a fact from their financial statements that they're breakeven at ~$60K ASP on the M3 while having SG&A that's unsustainably low (hence service hell). And having net inflow from $100K S/X on mature lines.

It's a lock that they lose >$5K per car at $35K even if they've done miraculous improvements in getting cost down.

It is incredible. Especially considering the run up in anticipation of good news since Elon announced the announcement. We are still higher than before that run up. Crazy.

wasn't the plan to sell the scty solar panels in the tesla stores?

As of just last month in their Q4 letter, yes.

But this is totally well planned out not a last minute hail mary...

When you are busy "disrupting", last month might as well have been 1919.

Bulls will eat this up but any idea how wallstreet is reacting to this news?

The 35k M3 has been the holy grail for years. So some bulls will ignore everything else and buy. That's what is keeping the stock up. Nevermind that there is no huge waiting list for the 35k-neutered version anymore.

Now that he said admitted Q1 is not profitable, the street estimates of .60/share profit will have to be reduced (along with price targets) so that may lead to continued underperformance vs the market.

Anyway the bear thesis is mostly intact. This is not a growth company - margins are dropping fast (3 price cuts this year!), another round of layoffs, Capex cut to the bone - doesn't sound like any growth company, ever. The valuation should start to reflect that more clearly, but the cult gonna cult (for now).

sure. But there are a lot of uncertainty you have to consider and inferences you have to make to intelligently interpret that sort of thing. The breathless videos posted ITT do none of that sort of analysis.

Exactly? Which is why I'm making fun of folks who treat all news as confirming the bear thesis.

You're not making fun of anyone, your posts are such ridiculously juvenile strawmen that you're the Aspie kid laughing to himself in the corner.

Even after all bear points are confirmed with this latest information, you keep going.

Works like most 4,000$ autopilots. Will fly straight, and not much else.