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Old 02-21-2019, 02:59 PM   #7151
ASAP17
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Originally Posted by protonewb View Post
Compare it to the Nasdaq recently - it is burning down. All the tech algos and basket trades are not enough to prop it up anymore.
What was it doing as tech was lagging to end the year last year? It trades in its own world, yes the market helps when it keeps going higher but good luck taking anything long term from a two month period of underperfomance. It doesn't matter because I can compare it to auto stocks and the indices longer term and it looks like a great investment up to now on a relative basis.
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Old 02-21-2019, 03:56 PM   #7152
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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I'm short and been really happy with the price action the last few weeks. Let the bleed continue.


I bought a $295 put when the Consumer Report news broke.

Leggoooo
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Old 02-21-2019, 04:04 PM   #7153
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

The day Trump was elected TSLA was in the $190s and 6 months later it had doubled. I have to remind myself this when I look at all the various relative performance because it's a mess. You can cherry pick plenty of different time frames whatever your narrative is.
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Old 02-21-2019, 04:15 PM   #7154
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

I get it about picking timeframes. It seems the disconnect is pretty significant from earlier this year. Maybe I'm wrong and it will outperform Nasdaq in the next few months and ramp back to 340 (still in the trading range). But the relative performance helps take the "noise" out of the market so to speak. And yes the slow bleed fits my narrative, mea culpa, I'm enjoying it haha.
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Old 02-21-2019, 04:48 PM   #7155
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Cars are ****. Demand is ****. Musk is a liar and a fraud. And now we find from reliable sources just out that they treat their customers like ****, not providing refunds for a long time (either because they're completely incompetent or to keep cash inflated):

Tesla customers describe maddening problems with returns and refunds
Quote:
Tesla customers experience frustrating problems with returns, refunds, CNBC says

Multiple Tesla customers are saying that the car maker can be sloppy and inconsistent in the way it handles returns and refunds, causing stress and leaving certain customers stranded with no car and no means to purchase another until they get their money back, CNBC's Lora Kolodny reports, citing interviews with more than a dozen people who have recently sought refunds from Tesla.
Quote:
Tesla CEO Elon Musk frequently touts the company's refund and return policy when encouraging people to buy his company's electric vehicles.
Today, some Tesla customers say the company left them stressed and stranded, waiting months to be paid back for returned cars or canceled reservations.
Bears are right on the facts as always. And Musk is of course the piece of crap conman we paint him as.

Step 1: Make a **** quality car in a tent using 1980s technology after promising an "alien dreadnought" with "air friction limited robots" where you'd need "strobe lights to see it" while promising quality "10x" better than others.

Step 2: Deliver this **** car to someone who finds it so awful they need to return it.

Step 3: Wait months to refund their money while Tesla keeps their trade-in car and their cash, helping to keep cash inflated on their balance sheet, while this person is stranded without a car and money.

Elon Musk: not a conman.

Last edited by ToothSayer; 02-21-2019 at 05:10 PM.
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Old 02-21-2019, 05:29 PM   #7156
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

I LOL’d for real at the $1,000 refund check that bounced.

Dear God.
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Old 02-22-2019, 04:26 PM   #7157
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Is it possible for this thing to gap down like Stamps on a trash demand report?

-Ships are being loaded with 1-1.5k cars only on the way to EU

-US demand when adding up observed sales rates seems impossibly low, even if all the Q counters are off by 50% (unlikely given methodology and verified cross references) the numbers will still kill it

-China demand is meaningless, a few K cars


My guess for the stock was the stickiness of 300, etc would have it just trend down slowly barring non-fundamental events. If these numbers come out what ideas are people having from a trading point of view if it collapses to the 200 range in a few days?
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Old 02-22-2019, 05:16 PM   #7158
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Slow bleed. The demand news is out, expectations were set on the last call for a bad Q1, so just about anything can be explained away.

There really are only 3 things that could lead to a gap down like Stamps - Elon leaving, federal criminal charges, or missing the bond payment in March.

I don't see any of those happening. The rest of the news, no matter how 'bad' it may seem: delivery numbers, guys killed by autopilot, people complaining on twitter, pics of idle delivery centers, just about anything else, will not cause a gap down.

And yeah, tsla outperformed nasdaq today, RIP my narrative! But slow bleed still looks most likely.
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Old 02-23-2019, 04:52 AM   #7159
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Slow bleed. The demand news is out, expectations were set on the last call for a bad Q1, so just about anything can be explained away.
Demand news isn't "out". You're not thinking about this clearly at all. If you asked most potential or current Tesla investors what demand for the Model 3 is like, they'd say it's off the charts and that Tesla are supply limited. Narratives don't change overnight. Maybe they'll know that January was slow, but that's "expected".

Quote:
There really are only 3 things that could lead to a gap down like Stamps - Elon leaving, federal criminal charges, or missing the bond payment in March.

I don't see any of those happening. The rest of the news, no matter how 'bad' it may seem: delivery numbers, guys killed by autopilot, people complaining on twitter, pics of idle delivery centers, just about anything else, will not cause a gap down.
You're completely wrong on this. Tesla has lost almost 10% in a ripping market. How much would it have lost in a sideways or down market? There are maybe 10 things not on your list that would cause a big gap down. I mean, they have, recently! $420 funding secured, his crying NYT interview, to name just a few. Increasing confirmation of demand death will cause far more carnage than those things did. InsideEV February numbers will come out, then March. Profit or projection warnings might need to be given. They might need to release highly damaging MNPI to raise in order to survive. SEC might reopen case. Judge might review it in light of Musk's complete non-compliance recently. Musk might flip out again as he sees he noose tightening with demand going nowhere. Investigative reporters could break fraud news like they did with Theranos or Valeant or Enron. Lots and lots of things could cause major moves down.
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Old 02-23-2019, 07:41 AM   #7160
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Odds on Musk slipping up before stock price reflects demand “death”?
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Old 02-23-2019, 10:31 AM   #7161
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

TS - none of those things would cause a Stamps-like gap down. The SEC case is civil, not criminal. And sure a warning for Q1 (even though he gave one on Q4 call) might cause a 10% tank, but nothing like stamps. It would probably need to be one of the 3 things I mentioned. Oh, I left out elon dying in an autopilot accident, or a meteor hitting his plane in flight. Ok fine.

Nothing tesla says or does has me questioning my bear thesis, but the fact that you, TS, are on the same side, that has me questioning it. Scary.
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Old 02-23-2019, 10:50 AM   #7162
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

If you're talking about a 50% overnight gap-down, even the things you listed wouldn't do that. Stamps was a $3 billion company. This is a $50 billion company.

Again, your reasoning is just horrible, and you're wrong about what the market knows and has priced in and what it would react to.
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Old 02-24-2019, 04:15 PM   #7163
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

I was rereading the Q4 letter this morning amd noticed something interesting. The letter guided S/X deliveries to slightly below Q1 '18. Not Q4 but Q1.

Q1 '18 S/X deliveries were less than 22k. If they are admitting a Q/Q drop of 20%+ how bad will it really be? 50%? More?

Also strangely they discussed demand pull forward as a cause of lower deliveries in Q1 but only for S/X. For the 3 they said deliveries might be 10k lower than production (why can't compare to actual number? what will production be?) due to shipping to EU/China.

Desperately attempting to maintain narrative of huge backlog of reservations and demand for the 3?
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Old 02-25-2019, 12:41 AM   #7164
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Every single person who bought a Tesla based on bull**** safety claims should be returning their deathtrap tomorrow for an Elon guaranteed full refund. But they won't because they are delusional. More people will die.

https://twitter.com/bluemistmiami/st...119828480?s=19
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Old 02-25-2019, 08:58 AM   #7165
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

lol he hit a tree head on traveling at a high rate of speed swerving through traffic.
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Old 02-25-2019, 09:43 AM   #7166
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Quote:
The car swerved through three lanes of traffic, hit a median and some trees and burst into flames, killing the driver.
Quote:
Witnesses told officers that the Tesla appeared to be traveling between 75 and 90 mph when the crash happened and initial evidence from the scene appears to confirm that, Leone said.
why, Teslas can't even save drivers when they hit a tree head on at 90 miles an hour. WHAT A DEATHTRAP

https://www.sun-sentinel.com/local/b...225-story.html
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Old 02-25-2019, 10:15 AM   #7167
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

The issue of whether Tesla drivers are douchebags (they are) is separate to whether the cars act properly in a crash. Airbags should deflate after inflating so the occupant isn't pinned. Door handles should release or at least have a manual workaround if they're flush so people can exit. Otherwise they burn to death, as just demonstrated in the real world. This is really the most basic safety stuff.

Similarly, "autopilot" when touted as "safer than a human driver" should notice a giant truck across the motorway, and not pass under it, decapitating the driver while the car careens on like a headless chook, its automatic braking failing to work as well as it travels almost a half mile across fields before slamming into a power pole.

Similarly, autopilot shouldn't slam into concrete dividers on a highway, pulverizing the programmer inside, just because the lines disappeared.

Similarly, autopilot shouldn't reliably slam into parked fire trucks reliably after being sold as "autopilot"

These are basic safety features that non-cucks are able to implement in their cars. This **** ain't hard, bro. Stop drinking the koolaid. Almost literally in the case of some of these drivers - they believe the conman cult leader on the abilities of the horribly unsafe "autopilot" and end up decapitated, burnt and pulverized.
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Old 02-25-2019, 10:19 AM   #7168
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

The autopilot specifically isn't designed to detect and avoid stationary objects on a freeway. Just like other lane keeping/adaptive cruise controls on the market. It's right in the manual.
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Old 02-25-2019, 10:57 AM   #7169
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Detecting and avoiding a stationary object on the freeway is a feature not a bug? Cool!
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Old 02-25-2019, 11:07 AM   #7170
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

It's not really an Autopilot, that's just the name. Everyone should realize that AUTOPILOT is just a marketing gimmick. Read the manual.
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Old 02-25-2019, 11:54 AM   #7171
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Right, it's not like an aircraft autopilot, the Tesla autopilot requires an alert operator at all times to address situations that the autopilot is not designed for or capable of carrying out.

Wait, hold on, never mind, that's exactly the same situation as an aircraft autopilot. Huh.
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Old 02-25-2019, 12:03 PM   #7172
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Who wouldn't want such a safe and reliable automobile? QA all day.
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Old 02-25-2019, 04:15 PM   #7173
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Aircraft autopilot also isn't that sophisticated.

If anything, that crash should be a reminder that life is too short to spend a lot of it obsessing over a car company's stock price.
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Old 02-25-2019, 04:18 PM   #7174
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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The autopilot specifically isn't designed to detect and avoid stationary objects on a freeway. Just like other lane keeping/adaptive cruise controls on the market. It's right in the manual.
Yes. It is level 2 like any other software out there. But this is not how Musk markets it. He uses the term "autopilot" and the phrase "fully self driving" and promised that was coming in "3 month probably, 6 months definitely" 2 years ago and claims it is safer than a human driver.

To the extent that people are misled - and they are, broadly; how many know that is GUARANTEED to crash into stationary objects on the road and GUARANTEED to follow lanes into concrete barriers with no warnings - Musk is responsible.

You know this but you're a cultist so you don't care, instead choosing to obfuscate and strawman. In fact that's your modus operandi on here. It's quite effective too.
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Old 02-25-2019, 04:23 PM   #7175
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Detecting and avoiding a stationary object on the freeway is a feature not a bug? Cool!
Musk just promised, with no doubt, that full autonomy is coming next year, yet another shameless lie by a giant conman.

The dead might be forgiven, given his lies and hype and the claim of automatic braking and collision avoidance, for believing that it's at least sophisticated enough to avoid gigantic stationary obstacles. After all, all other autonomous driving programs like Google, Cruise build this into their software first because they're not cowboys and they care about not needlessly killing people.
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