Its a Rohrschach. What do you see?

Bulls- disruption! crazy demand! organic growth coming!

Bears- disorganization. shortcuts taken due to lack of money and planning. what other problems caused by poor planning and process are lurking under the hood?

Is that picture much different from a KIA delivery center?

The KIA delivery center is probably on the level.

The first mainstream acknowledgment of the death of demand in the NYT:

Tooth you've really been hammering this "demand is dead" drum for the past several weeks. You are certainly correct that demand was very low in January and early February. Obviously anyone who wanted to buy a Tesla this winter in the US who had half a brain would buy it in December instead of January to get the bigger tax credit. So all the Jan-Feb demand was used up in December. And I don't have numbers but I would guess that January and February are very slow sales months for cars in the US in general.

But I'm not sure that the demand in Jan-Feb is predictive of demand from March on. I'm not sure how long it will take, but within a few months a whole new cohort of car buyers will come to the market. Will they choose to buy the model 3 again, or will they choose to buy BMW 3 series and Toyota Camry? I don't claim to know. But the fact that Teslas are not selling in Jan-Feb does not really change the odds of good sales in April - June that much in my mind.

To me it all depends on the word of mouth of current model 3 owners and how much they end up "selling" the car to their peers. There are a lot of loud voices from people who are very happy and very unhappy that makes it hard for me to tell what the average customer is saying to their friends. I feel that the endorsement, or lack thereof, of the average customer will cause the model 3 to sink or swim.

I haven't been "hammering" it, I've been presenting a picture of a broad range of evidence of total US demand death as that evidence has come to light. The stock has dropped 7% in the last two weeks as this evidence has come in during a ripping market.

Perhaps your bull thesis feels under siege, hence the "hammering" comment.
Yes, but that's not all the evidence we have. We have very strong evidence of weak demand in November and December as well. I posted some above:

- Sales staff hitting every single lead over and over by email and phone
- Musk continually extending the "final day" to buy for 2018 delivery
- Lots of remaining inventory
- Prices being cut

This is not "unlimited demand" or even strong demand.

Also, are you aware that Tesla has twice dropped the price in the US? By $3200 total, basically eating all of the tax credit loss. And still no demand.
They are very very weak months for autos, but not this weak. It's possible there will be a recovery into spring. But the fact that there is *zero* backlog even with 2/3 of the cars going overseas...what does that say to you? Total demand death, is what it says to me.

Musk claims he can sell 500K cars in a recession. The current run rate in the US is 72,000 cars/year and no one wants them at even that level. This after a 3000 price cut which is basically last year's price with full credit. And no one wants them. Seasonality doesn't' cover the magnitude of this imo.

Demand has dropped as the months have gone on. Delivery times have dropped steadily since July (when they hit 4000/week) and are now instant. This is not consistent with a word of mouth network effect. You should be seeing the opposite as US cars went from effectively zero to 100K in the wild. Remember there was supposedly a 400K backlog of deposits which Musk said claimed wasn't even dented by 100K deliveries as new orders came in. Do these supposed people not want their cars???? Add word of mouth on top and yet you can have an M3 right away while most of production is going overseas? None of this makes any sense in your narrative.

There's no rational way to get from the reality we see to your view.

The interesting thing to me is that paragraph thrown in there with the observations of the Pittsburgh store. Part of a bigger story to come? There are many closer galleries and delivery centers to NYC than Pittsburgj. If a NYT reporter spent a Saturday afternoon at a store in Pittsburgh I presume they also went to the Syosset, Paramus, Philadelphia, and Boston-area locations?

The twitter user @Latrilife who observes Marina Del Ray deliveries daily claims that LA Times reporter Russ Mitchell joined him last week.

So the demand story could be hitting the mainstream in a big way in the next couple weeks.

Yes, demand was pulled forward due to the tax credit but demand was also pent up since the 2016 announcement.

It doesn't really matter if the 3 run rate rebounds from 5k/mo to 10k/mo in the US because they could barely make money selling 20k/mo + 10k/mo S/X.

In the meantime the S and X also lost the tax credit and have been hurt by the 3. And from a macro perspective the luxury auto market doesn't look strong in 2019 and EV competition is coming both above and below market in the next couple months.

To me it says that demand was low in Jan/Feb which we agree on. Sounds like we agree that there is some chance demand will recover. You seem pretty confident that it will stay very low. I would say my opinion is closer to:

10% chance it recovers really strong in spring and TSLA starts rolling > 350
40% chance it recovers somewhat and TSLA limps along in 280-320 range
50% chance it stays low and TSLA is hurting below 250

You are probably at 0.1%, 1.9%, 98% I would guess.

If we could filter out the rave reviews of the happiest 5% of model 3 owners and the horrible reviews of the angriest 5% of model 3 owners and get an accurate picture of the feelings of the middle 90%, I think we could know for sure which way it will head and make some trades and make some money! That's the point I was trying to make.

I'm not trying to beat you in a debate or prove you wrong. I'm trying to find an accurate picture of the future so I can make a trade and make money. I've only traded TSLA a handful of times, but every time I have done it I have gone short. Wouldn't consider myself a bull.

I'm pretty sure TS is a pretty extreme INFJ personality (though he probably thinks he's Thinking) that has a hard time accepting an extreme ENTP can be successful beyond TS's wildest dreams.

I'd put it about the same, a little more of the middle case (60%) and 30% left for the "stay low" case. That 30% is rather rapid bankruptcy though. No one will back them for the 10s of billions in capital they need or underwrite secondaries if demand isn't there.
I think Tesla cars have very crappy build quality and I think 85%+ are very happy to own a Tesla car. As I've always said, performance electric vehicles are a marvel of nature and feel like the future (which is also why Tesla are doomed). I don't think that's particularly relevant to future demand or word of mouth. If it was and you were correct we'd see much higher demand already.

I think demand in the US is in deep ****. The only thing I'd like more clarity on is current production levels. The Bloomberg Tracker (total bull**** historically) has them at 8000/week right now. If anyone has rough factory numbers, that would be helpful.

Musk isn't an ENTP, he's an INTP or INTJ. More importantly he's a conman and a talented money hustler with a case of grandiose narcissism who's way beyond the level of his competence/intelligence running a car company, which is why he keeps ****ing things up and getting in little Hitler rages.

I'm not an INFJ either. I'm more an ENTP. Did you type those backwards? Do you not how personality types work? Just more terrible analysis from you.

By they way, keep making **** up...I can see I've hit the mark calling you out a few times above.

<wolfy pop-in>lol myers-briggs</wolfy pop-in>

(INFP here)

Turns out Tooth is a bigger TSLA bull than I am

Mind blown

TS, there is no way your Briggs Myers type doesn't have a J. You want to be ENTP probably because you read somewhere that's the most successful archetype but you're just not.

Musk probably wasn't either. The "E" part is probably a learned trait for him given his personal history. A grandiose narcissist that recharges by being around people who adore him is pretty much your prototypical E with a dose of psychopathy. Not sure how you simultaneously hold the beliefs he's an "I" and a grandiose narcissist.

Holy **** business bros slow your rolls. The Myers Briggs is bull**** psychobabble.

It's perfect babble to troll certain types that end with J and give a lot of F to **** they have no personal stake in.

Definitely hit the mark with you calling out your bull**** artistry above.
How do you get everything ass backwards? You've got a gift there and desperately need to do a Constanza.

J/P refers to life order orientation/preferences. It doesn't mean "judgmental".

The one thing I'm definitely not is a J. I'm a world traveling options trader without fixed plans. That's the opposite of someone who likes order, planning, predictability, familiarity. On non-quack personality tests I'm high on openness to experience and mid-high on conscientiousness. That ain't a J, bro.

You've gotten the whole thing hilariously ass backwards. What a fail.
The archetype name of the ENTP is "the debater", and their core characteristic is intellectual curiosity and seeking combative debates. Sound like anyone you know?

You can't even do personality test quackery correctly. It's just buckets of fail from you. Move along.

You guys sound like 23 year old baristas on bumble with the Meier Briggs ****

Consumer Reports pulling their recommendation just now based on Model 3 reliability issues should be good for (already very weak) demand.

I'm amazed it's down only 2%, people put a lot of faith in Consumer Report. Yeah its underperforming this year but it's more of a slow bleed than anything.

Nobody under 50 reads consumer reports. That said, a slow bleed is what I expect. With sporadic crazy pumps in between. But the divergence with Nasdaq is super clear now that p/e is going to come down.

Bears expecting the big gap down are going to be disappointed yet again. The only things that will cause a 10%+ gap down is elon leaving or missing the bond payment. Or maybe a fund raise at beyond awful terms.

I'm short and been really happy with the price action the last few weeks. Let the bleed continue.

This is wrong and the proof is the spike down intraday. They carry a lot of weight in the media and that's enough to mean they still have relevance. The point is you have all these negative catalysts and the stock is STILL in this longer term range with not much resolution. The bonds are holding up reasonably well too, not anywhere near the recent lows.

It spiked down because Bloomberg reported it with a RED headline and all the traders (mostly older guys) started selling. Other than that, minor news.

And I agree the bonds are holding up pretty well, everyone expects a clean bond payment, and so do I. But the stock is slowly burning down the sky-high multiple because even if they magically turn a profit in Q1, the stock is absurdly overpriced for a no-growth company.

The stock isn't burning down no matter how many times you say it, remember your takes after earnings? That's back to where we are now lol.