The 10k is out...and earlier than last year.

Speculation is that it came out early to try to lock in a fundraise before the $920 mil is due in March. I'm not sure it could be done that quickly, but we'll see.

If demand is as dead as all the evidence suggests and they can raise, they'd be nuts not to raise a few billion to try and make it to pickup truck/Y.

I actually think the pickup truck is an incredible opportunity for them. Trades will love it - 100 kWh of 240V AC at their fingertips - no more generators. Campers will love it for the same reason. Amazing acceleration. You can put a big battery in because of profile/weight allowed and have 400-500 mile range. And you can charge a lot for it and potentially make a profit unlike all their other total failures.

But it's going to require billions to get there and it seems they're going into losses and negative cash flow again this quarter.

Of course they should raise. Everyone on the planet knows this.

But elon said they don't need to raise and would probably like to save face. Also the price of any equity raise would be well below $300 and would be seen as a slap in the face to current shareholders - "hey if we could have been paid $420 last year why are you selling stock for $270 now??"

So I think it's 50/50. They desperately need cash to maintain any type of growth story but Elon wants to save face.

He's never had a problem going back on his word before. That his modus operandi. He's frequently said "no raise needed", "permanently profitable", then gone and raised again. It's incredibly easy to sell to the bulls too as a positive: "We're moving up the pickup truck/Model Y timeline due to strong demand". They'd push more money in if he raised.

I don't buy the face saving argument at all. Musk knows very well that bulls are losers/morons and he can spin them and have this come out as a big positive.

The pickup seems like an awful idea to bank on. The demographics of pickup drivers is not favorable to EVs. Even if it made all the sense in the world to get an EV pickup, and they were cheap (they won't be), pickup drivers are generally Republican and want their truck to symbolize their Americanness, which burns gas and doesn't feature some eco-friendly, liberal "cuckmobile." You wouldn't expect an EV Harley to do well for the same reasons. Making a more affordable small SUV (essentially what Model S : Model 3 :: Model X : Model Y) makes much more sense.

My guess is TSLA skips along in this 250-350 range for another few years. They pay off their upcoming obligations, do a raise, maybe China takes a big stake and gives Musk horrible terms but he spins it as being a huge springboard into the booming Chinese EV market, then it's on to India, and saps from either the government or private equity continue buying up pieces and keeping TSLA afloat. The Cult never sells; dumb shorts continue infusing some capital; maybe there's a deus ex-machina and the company gets bought out by a clueless Google or TATA motors or somebody.

I find myself rooting for TSLA to collapse, maybe because Musk seems like such a scummy narcissist and want all the dirt I've read about the company here to be consequential. But it is an American company, and its bankruptcy could rattle the greater market a little bit. I don't know what I want.

If M3 demand is now dead then so is Tesla. No one is going to underwrite them or loan to them. If there's at least 300K demand left this year at >$45K ASP, they survive for longer.

I agree the cult will never sell. And the M3 inventory news doesn't seem to shake the market much. There is always something they can point to: Europe, China, Model Y, etc.

It will take a catalyst to get it below $250 anytime soon - DOJ indictment, Elon leaving to "focus on mars", skipping the bond payment or something. Otherwise the cult does not care and it will be a long, slow trip to get the p/e down to more reasonable levels for a no-growth car company.

If they raise 2-4 billion, I'll cover pretty much right away. While I still think it's a band-aid and not enough money longterm, it would be dead money for 12-18 months probably.

I'm counting on Elon being stubburn and trying to ride it out until they hit a literal cash-crunch wall.

You're not thinking about this rationally as to what the "cult" will do.

Up to now the news has been good. Two "profitable" quarters, claimed unlimited demand, 100% growth in revenue YoY, the first sustainable indications of the viability of Tesla mass manufacturing. Demand being dead is not on anyone's radar just yet.

If demand is dead then that will come out in mainstream news fairly quickly (1-2 months, maybe horrible delivery numbers earlier), and such news will absolutely tank the stock. You don't need any of the huge events you mention.

Disagree here. Pickup market is huge in the US, Tesla would have only needed to capture a small slice of it. Tesla is an American company, plays by its own rules, it wouldn't take much for a material amount of customers to come around given:

-Electric torque is unquestionable. Laugh all you want at an 'eco mobile' but it is simply able to offer more power off the line than anything else. This kills a huge amount of criticism.

-All day power for accessories and work built right in is also very 'tough', hard working, etc.. There is just limited room to hate on someone for being an un-american pansy when they have more power than you and have a tool to work a hard day of labor better.

-The EV credit would have been huge here for price shopping, pickup buyers tend to be able to 'stretch' a lot more than car buyers. It is actually reasonable for a buyer to look at both 28k and 58k versions of the same truck, this never happens with sedans.

-The Gemans, who will kill Tesla on the high end, don't make light pickups. This would have given Tesla a few more years runway of no competition.


It's all too late now, but this is just another point that underlines how the M3 was the absolute nut low choice on every dimension.

The news about demand is out: nobody cares.

People will rationalize about weather, "slow Q1, ok -make it up in Q3/Q4 plus china factory and 35k M3!"

It's either a catalyst like I mentioned or a slow year-long grind to a more reasonable yet still outlandish p/e. Or elon raises big bucks and the short thesis is dead for a year or more.

The last thing I would do is rely solely on political POV to market a vehicle.

There are basically 3 segments of pickup buyers: commercial, RV, and daily drivers. Commercial could be successful if Tesla can develop a better, more cost effective design (i.e. from buyers perspective) than what is out there already. RV has no chance because of the combined range+HP requirements. DD maybe but a lot of these buyers drive pickups because of perceived safety superiority, size/appearance, and utility. Again Tesla will need to make an attractive and somewhat cost effective product to lure existing gas/diesel buyers away. Range for this segment is not as important as cost/mile, perceived safety, and utility value.

Another component is resale value. Pickups have better resale value than sedans and buyers are generally aware of that. Tesla would need to convince buyers that their product wold also have competitive resale value.

Of course Musk can ride the legislative coattails of the anti gas/diesel states. CA recently increased gasoline taxes 20c/gal, and diesel over double that. At some point all consumers would be forced to abandon gas/diesel vehicles, including pickups.

I don't think you realize it's a tiny bubble of people who follow Tesla daily news. I would say 95% of Tesla holders have nothing about demand problems on their radar right now. Even those who do follow won't believe a strong pattern until it's confirmed in reliable sources.

So no, news about demand is not out, not even close, and people will care, a lot. If demand has dried up now it's the first time in the history of the company that demand has a ceiling, and a low one at that.

A few crazy bulls will, but they're not representative of the people who hold Tesla. There are two pillars holding Tesla up right now based on reasonable evidence:

- Tesla have turned the corner and are now permanently profitable or close enough (evidence: first two profitable quarters a row; projections of future profitability)

- Tesla have endless demand and will for years to come; if they grow supply they can double or triple revenue from here (evidence: 400K preorders, company claims no drawdown on that even with 100K sales, Elon's claims of 500K demand "even in a recession")

If one of those pillars is knocked out in reliable sources, there's a major exit, including among big holders.

A big raise to knock out bankruptcy for another year/get them to the next product launch would cause a lot of bears to cover.

I do have to check my ideas of how widely the demand issues are known. On Teslaq all day it starts to feel like everyone knows. The reality is only few dozen people who are closely uncovering the demand collapse. Even dropping bombs like all day MDR surveillance, new storage lots, or now directly pulling inventory from an unprotected API endpoint get 10-100 likes tops. No one is watching this but us. Bloomberg still directly prints Telsa PR releases as 'news' headlines. The mainstream story can only gap away from reality for so long.

I've wondered the same, but it just feels like the issues are known sufficiently, and elon saying Q1 will be bad and "breakeven" or "slight profit" has already built in some acceptance of demand issues in USA, and will get a pass for just about anything Q1-related.

I mean, if bloomberg puts out a red headline "Tesla USA model 3 demand not meeting inventory levels" the bulls will shrug it off and the stock might go down $5. Bulls are thinking of europe, china, 35k M3, Model Y, semi, roadster, full self driving - and no matter how lol those things are currently they will not sell en masse.

Tesla's "dog mode" is going to sell some cars. people eat that stuff up.

Dog Mode is going to wind up decapitating someone's dog, I just know it.

Something spicy has to be going on:

New GC quits

Elon on Twitter rampage, doesn't even pretend there is a SEC agreement. Tweets out +25% annual production guidance change and then walks it back hours later

Presses on absurd FSD claims in interview with criminally adorable Tasha from ARK

Missing VIN's now appear to effect S/X sales in Q3

Standard range option scrubbed from website

10-K dropped a bit earlier than expected

Stock down despite pumps

Exits private Jet on overnight trip to Europe with shirt unbuttoned



The only consistent thread in these points seems to be Elon fully un-restrained and willing to crash at high speeds. I had gambled on some Mar 15 295 puts when it was at 315 a week or two ago, can't see any choice here but riding them out.

What kind of a loser CEO lies about 500K/year production, not realizing he'd HAVE to walk it back hours later, hurting his credibility and stock? A guy who's so used to lying and getting away with it that it's second nature. A guy with zero respect for the truth, his stockholders, securities law. What else would a person like that lie about?

The general counsel leaving right after is hilarious. Did he quit (bad?) or did Musk get in one of his little Hitler rages and fire him?

guys, guys... it's fine.
look at the stockprice!

Would like to know if he planned to leave and waited for 10k to drop or the twitter/podcast rants which probably ruined any chance to raise in the near future - there is a "quiet period" - did it.

Either way, well respected guy replaced by young guy with essentially no experience yet again.

Why would he ever sign the 10K and then quit instantly afterward? This looks like a fight with Elon.

Look again. He didn't sign the 10K.

You are right, this is probably an area I am out of my depth on, especially in terms of the mechanics of regulatory filings, raises, etc..

I need to stick with: no customers = no cash = game over sometime

While it seems like the stock has been pretty resilient recently (pretty flat since earnings) - It's nice to see TSLA (-9%) has disconnected totally from the Nasdaq (+12%) year to date. It's not all braindead cultists buying or tech algos. Slowly but surely the valuation is contracting.

Tesla delivery center in Germany.