I mean like griz said it was oversubscribed. They wanted 750 million at the terms they sought, but when they couldn't get those terms they reduced the amount. They had enough investors to get more than 250 at the worse terms. It was SpaceX's decision to limit it to 250.

Grizy,

This sort of analysis of bond issuance strikes me as the corporate finance equivalent of dudes who live in their mother's basement flying drones around Tesla parking lots obsessing about a few dozen cars that have been parked there a month. You obviously know more than anyone else ITT about this sort of thing, making these sorts Tesla inferences about what seems to be a pretty minor finance hiccup at a whole other company is nuts, right?

Senor,
Yeah man it's totally normal for large companies in a lend-happy environment to get 1/3 of what they ask for on worse terms...then cut staff while the CEO uses the word "bankruptcy" in the email...and have their long time investment bank drop them during the raise event.

You don't need to take my word for it. Numerous main street finance pages called Goldman dropping them "very unusual" and said that lenders were wary in part because of Musk's erratic behavior, the bad financial state of the company, and dubious disclosures which showed a fake profit.

There's no questions lenders are very wary of Tesla and Musk at this point. You only have to look at the increasingly onerous/secured terms as time has gone by. Lenders are very wary of all Musk enterprises, even the best managed ones like SpaceX. Whether this applies to Tesla in China in future I don't know, but it looks that way in the US.

Get out there make those Tesla parking lot rounds tooth! MY GOD THESE 8 CARS HAVE BEEN HERE A WEEK AND A HALF

Oh he's been falsifying his earnings reports? Big if true! Seems like one of the most heavily scrutinized companies in the world wouldn't be able to sustain that sort of fraud for more than a few quarters, so it has to be all crashing down soon. Any day now.

But I agree it's totally plausible that bankers and investors are getting impatient and want to see some profits or they will cut off the money. That's why he's cutting costs, streamlining production, and you know, trying to show a profit.

New round of price cuts in, second time this year. The price at which the market can 'clear' is up in the air still, but signs suggest they will have to go much deeper as inventory ages and cash dwindles.

-Model 3 isn't really a cross-shopped purchase in the same way others are. Camry can cut $1,100 vs Accord and create a material demand shift to steal sales. M3 doesn't have this same element.

-Price is still in the premium range, $1k off a 19k Honda allows people to actually buy the car. The curve for 44k shoppers is naturally flatter.

-80%+ demand fall off signals a structural issue.

My guess is only discounts deep enough to shift from 'enticing' potential purchases to 'allowing' purchases will create enough demand. Given income and margin from the last 2 quarters, this price will be a huge loser. I simply can't see anyway out of this for them, added a short at 324 today.

-

The price cut is definitely bad news, and just lol at Elon advertising it as 35k (with "gas" and other savings assumptions) - super scammy.

So much for unlimited demand.

Bears: "Tesla will never be able to make a $35,000 sale price Model 3"

Also Bears: "Tesla lowering its cheapest Model 3 sale price $1,100 closer to $35,000 is very bad news for Tesla"

More like they will not be able to make a $35,000 Model3 AT A PROFIT. They are just killing their margins but have to in order to get rid of them.

Is this a troll?

Same question here I guess

It's a question of demand and profit margins.

Sorry, wasn’t clear. Meant same question as I asked above: “is this a troll?”

Inventory pile-up could get ugly here. My bet is this will be the catalyst for the permanent move out of the 300s. They have 2 options approaching soon:

1 Slash prices on existing stock even more, admit they can't make money on what they sell

2 Slash production heavily, admit they can't sell what they can produce

Both will tank the stock as the growth story is force-closed. Elon will have to take increasing desperate measures to create any pump and the odds of slamming into a wall will increase.

A possible crack developing in Europe. Tesla set-up delivery today in Netherlands on short notice for the cars that arrived yesterday...and then cancelled at the last minute.

https://twitter.com/StrikMichael/sta...28263001022464

The only thing unusual about what happened was Musk fired GS. Typically, and I've been personally in rooms where this happened, the lenders/bankers and founders would negotiate over how much to give, rates (usually the least cared about), and covenants. I think what happened was Musk told GS to **** off hoping BoA would acquiesce and was surprised to find he wasn't getting better terms. So he got less money, probably planning to use the 250m to pay for some big PR stunt that he thinks might give him a stronger bargaining position.

It is EXTREMELY unusual that a company of Tesla's (SpaceX too) size (not just market cap anymore, but also in revenues) gets as much rope as Tesla+Musk does but they have obviously been getting the rope for years.

For good reason. What some people in this thread don't seem to realize is, up to this point, early investors in Elon's ventures have made out extremely well and Tesla still hasn't failed its investors yet.

Pyramid scheme? Maybe. But like I said before, the bull thesis, almost by design, is unfalsifiable in the short term with people already anticipating the worst of management excesses/shenanigans that fall just short of legal fraud.

****s bout to hit the fan, i put a lil more on 2day

I am guessing standardized testing was not kind to you

This is wrong

Lots of stories that the shipment of 1400 cars to zeebrugge is being held up and musk is now on his way to Europe. Conspiracy theorists saying that Tesla likely rigged up one car to get homologated in Europe then just shipped a bunch of their cars without the necessary adjustments.


While I don’t put any weight into that idea, it sounds like exactly something musk would do.

The most likely reason those cars are held up is they have to pay VAT/sales tax IN ADVANCE to get the cars released from customs. "the check is in the mail" probably doesn't get it done there like it does in USA.

You've just been making **** up for a long time it seems. This is unadulterated bull****. Tesla hasn't been getting rope on their borrows; for years now they've had strict terms and only been able to borrow by mortgaging/signing over title with room to spare.

I don't know what game you're playing but it's really weird that you straight up lie about ****. None of Tesla's borrows in the last several years have been "EXTREMELY unusual" for their laxity, if anything they've been EXTREMELY unusual for their tightness for a company of Tesla's size and profile. You have it ass-backwards bro.

SpaceX has certainly had quite a lot of rope from lenders but you said Tesla above and that statement is flat out false. Why would you say something that's flat out false?

It appears Tesla massively laid off delivery staff in their cuts, due to weak demand.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-t...-idUSKCN1PY00J

“There are not enough deliveries,” one of the former employees told Reuters. “You don’t need a team because there are not that many cars coming through.”

“We sold through just about every car we had on the ground and we called almost every being on the planet who had ever expressed desire to own a Tesla to let them know the tax credit was expiring,” said the other ex-employee.

The facts:

- Musk says the "last day" to order for delivery in 2018 is mid November, then end of November, then each week in December, then even in the last few days Musk says there are inventory cars left.

- A large email and phone campaign went out to all leads (this was reported by dozens of people) over and over reminding people that it's their "last chance" to order the Model 3

- The latter is confirmed by former employees

- Only 6000 cars get delivered in January

- 2/3 of their delivery staff are fired

- All other markets where a large government incentive expired had demand permanently die

- The CEO on the phone call says there is huge demand but "people don't have the money in their bank accounts". Think about how insane that is for a second.

- Tesla reduces prices of all models, not just the cheapest, by $2200 and then $1100.

- Even with 6000 deliveries in January, you could get a Model 3 in days in the US in January.

Occam's razor here is pretty simple. Tesla has exhausted its US demand at profitable prices. Model 3 orders in Europe are reported by reliable sources as merely 20,000 (four weeks' production). Then what?

What desperation moves are people anticipating by Elon here? Will he simply press the same tricks harder? I think this is most likely,

-Accounting fraud from questionable/always favors Tesla, to much more aggressive levels

-Defund warranty reserve, deny service claims, cut back staff, all while 'recognizing' issues. Don't really see a way he can bluster further than 'same day repairs' etc but maybe he can

-Float/leak additional fake bailout/takeover/white knight plans. If the first one could move the market no way these couldn't

-Overpromise on Y, Pickup, China, etc. Basically here he just totally denies reality and starts to play only to the true believers he has left


-What else can he pull at this point?