TSLA showing cracks? - Page 277 - Business, Finances and Investing Forum

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TSLA showing cracks?

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01-30-2019 , 10:29 AM

#6901

ToothSayer

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2015 Posts: 13,237

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dream Crusher

A few highlights
TSLA's intrinsic value is $400/share ($75 billion).
Trillion dollar market cap in 10 to 15 years.
TSLA now in the driver's seat of controlling it's destiny..no longer dependent on capital markets.
Investing in TSLA is like investing in the da Vinci, Einstein, Edison, or (Nikola) Tesla of our time.
Not an Elon fanboy (but goes on a long rant about how amazing Elon is).
Investing my life savings in TSLA is still worth it even if TSLA goes bankrupt.

This x 1 million crazy religious tech bros is your counterparty right here. Tesla has the FTOI all covered.

FTOI = Fundamental Theory of Investing as per Sklansky aka "you need to explain why the other guy is a dickhead". Tesla has this in spades. Look at heltok in this thread - the guy actually works in autonomous driving and his mind was so completely broken by his Musk religion that he couldn't see black and white evidence laid out for him three years ago that Tesla was dead last in autonomy with no path to getting ahead.

Quote

01-30-2019 , 10:43 AM

#6902

ElSapo

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Dec 2002 Posts: 5,471

Oh, whoa.

"I'll take the loss on the chin, probably my life savings, but I'll know I was a part of history."

Dude is investing in the stock market, right?

Quote

01-30-2019 , 02:23 PM

#6903

BooLoo

adept

Join Date: Oct 2013 Posts: 945

i don't know if i can get through another one of elon's conference calls...

Quote

01-30-2019 , 05:53 PM

#6904

protonewb

journeyman

Join Date: Feb 2017 Posts: 387

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mori****a System

With such universal consensus and massive call buying, the equity ought to tank after earnings tomorrow or stay flat to hurt the most people possible, but who knows what will happen.

ding ding ding. winner. Also selling the 380 calls was indeed pure free money. I covered at 291 a few days ago, it ramped too much in pre-earnings hype and now the market makers are just collecting all those options premiums for Friday, pretty amazing.

Still might be some fake pump news on the conf call and I will get short again next few days.

Overall the report about as expected, plenty of cash to pay the bonds off so no bk anytime soon as some bears hoped, but Q1 will be a disaster and the multiple will have to come down, they are spending nearly nothing on capex and it's no longer a growth company.

Quote

01-30-2019 , 07:38 PM

#6905

Morishita System

old hand

Join Date: Jan 2011 Posts: 1,391

DEEPAK IS OUT!!!

**** ME, ALL IN.

Quote

01-30-2019 , 07:41 PM

#6906

ToothSayer

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2015 Posts: 13,237

Bomb dropped in the final four minutes - CFO gone and a kid with no accounting experience is the CFO. After the entire accounting team quit last year.

Quote

01-30-2019 , 07:41 PM

#6907

MrFeelNothin

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 4,457

Quote:

Originally Posted by protonewb

You might be right if the numbers are accurate but announcing Deepak's retirement and then immediately ending call was interesting. And replacement has almost no experience.

Elon pretty much confirmed there is no demand left at current price points AND said they can't afford to add leasing. Strange.

Anyways, I did well buying 2/8 calls last week and selling today when speculation of a pump was at its highest. Back into puts probably now.

Quote

01-30-2019 , 07:41 PM

#6908

DeezNuts

veteran

Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 3,016

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mori****a System

DEEPAK IS OUT!!!

**** ME, ALL IN.

For those of you that got bored and left, wow, what news.

I deal with the new CFO's type (McKinsey/HBS) all the time and he seems wildly unqualified (was a Sr. Director just days ago).

Insanity.

Quote

01-30-2019 , 07:47 PM

#6909

MrFeelNothin

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 4,457

Quote:

Originally Posted by DeezNuts

For those of you that got bored and left, wow, what news.

I deal with the new CFO's type (McKinsey/HBS) all the time and he seems wildly unqualified (was a Sr. Director just days ago).

Insanity.

OTOH Zach seems perfectly qualified for the job of patsy.

Quote

01-30-2019 , 07:50 PM

#6910

protonewb

journeyman

Join Date: Feb 2017 Posts: 387

I didn't get my whole short bag back but got a piece during the call. About 15 minutes before the deepak bomb it just felt like there was no steve jobs style "and one more thing.." good news.

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01-30-2019 , 07:54 PM

#6911

MrFeelNothin

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 4,457

Quote:

Originally Posted by protonewb

I didn't get my whole short bag back but got a piece during the call. About 15 minutes before the deepak bomb it just felt like there was no steve jobs style "and one more thing.." good news.

Very nice move!

Just checked my account and my nibble of 2/15 $250 puts filled before close so that should be a nice gainer tomorrow along with my longer term puts.

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01-30-2019 , 07:56 PM

#6912

JKC

grinder

Join Date: Aug 2018 Posts: 548

Is the CFO leaving a big deal because he was so good or because the replacement stinks?

Quote

01-30-2019 , 08:00 PM

#6913

JKC

grinder

Join Date: Aug 2018 Posts: 548

https://twitter.com/PlugInFUD/status...57348384219136

"
ZACH, NEW TESLA CFO:

- GRADUATED COLLEGE IN 2006 (PENN, DOUBLE DEGREE, QUITE IMPRESSIVE)
- GOT A HARVARD MBA (QUITE IMPRESSIVE)

BUT IS GIVING THE REINS TO A $50B COMPANY TO A 31 YEAR OLD REALLY A WISE DECISION?

IMO IT *SCREAMS* THAT THE SECRET CANNOT GET OUT.

"

Quote

01-30-2019 , 08:01 PM

#6914

syndr0me

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 1,682

36 year old CFO if a 50b market cap company .......

Quote

01-30-2019 , 08:10 PM

#6915

coordi

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 23,765

Elon joined the company when he was 36

Quote

01-30-2019 , 08:12 PM

#6916

syndr0me

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 1,682

Quote:

Originally Posted by coordi

Elon joined the company when he was 36

Elon didn’t start the company and even if he did your point is irrelevant

Quote

01-30-2019 , 08:15 PM

#6917

ASAP17

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 5,882

Quote:

Originally Posted by MrFeelNothin

Very nice move!

Just checked my account and my nibble of 2/15 $250 puts filled before close so that should be a nice gainer tomorrow along with my longer term puts.

The implied move was around 9%, maybe you'll explain how these are going to be a nice gainer IF the stock opens around where it's trading now unless I'm missing something about when you purchased.

Quote

01-30-2019 , 08:16 PM

#6918

protonewb

journeyman

Join Date: Feb 2017 Posts: 387

Quote:

Originally Posted by MrFeelNothin

Very nice move!

Just checked my account and my nibble of 2/15 $250 puts filled before close so that should be a nice gainer tomorrow along with my longer term puts.

Yep those should be up nicely, this after hours move seems small to me, once funds wake up to the news and can get liquidity in regular session i expect a nice down day.

I was ready to pull the trigger at end of the call, just making sure no bombshell good news, but when i heard the deepak news the bids dropped so fast i could not catch it. Will grab more in the next few days.

Quote

01-30-2019 , 08:17 PM

#6919

ASAP17

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 5,882

Quote:

Originally Posted by protonewb

Yep those should be up nicely. I was ready to pull the trigger at end of the call, just making sure no bombshell good news, but when i heard the deepak news the bids dropped so fast i could not catch it. Will grab more in the next few days.

Why should these be up nicely? You guys do know what happens post earnings with short term options right?

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01-30-2019 , 08:22 PM

#6920

protonewb

journeyman

Join Date: Feb 2017 Posts: 387

1) he has 2 weeks left, thich in TSLA terms is pretty long compared to most stocks.

2) stock was ALREADY down in ah BEFORE the deepak news. They missed on eps. No fundraise. Tiny capex (not a growth company anymore), cash balance doesn't match with interest earned on cash and a bunch of other negative things, not to mention elon giggling thru the call and "guessing" on everything. It will be down much more tomorrow. 2/15s at 250 with the stock at say 270 tomorrow will be up very nicely from the close today.

Quote

01-30-2019 , 08:24 PM

#6921

ASAP17

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 5,882

Quote:

Originally Posted by protonewb

1) he has 2 weeks left, thich in TSLA terms is pretty long compared to most stocks.

2) stock stock was ALREADY down in ah BEFORE the deepak news. They missed on eps. No fundraise. Tiny capex (not a growth company anymore), cash balance doesn't match with interest earned on cash and a bunch of other negative things, not to mention elon giggling thru the call and "guessing" on everything. It will be down much more tomorrow. 2/15s at 250 with the stock at say 270 tomorrow will be up very nicely from the close today.

If it opens in the mid $290s tomorrow those are opening red as are most of the OTM options on both sides. Has nothing to do with whether it eventually trades down in the second part of your answer.

Quote

01-30-2019 , 08:26 PM

#6922

protonewb

journeyman

Join Date: Feb 2017 Posts: 387

I don't expect mid 290s, and I never said he would be up AT THE OPEN. Funds need to sell into regular hours liquidity. All the points I mentioned are for why it will trade further down from open tomorrow, while he still has 2 full weeks.

Quote

01-30-2019 , 08:28 PM

#6923

ASAP17

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 5,882

Quote:

Originally Posted by protonewb

Lol well his comment he was looking at nice gains which as of now looks factually incorrect (not trying to rub it in just being honest). Again whether they turn out to be profitable or whatever is another discussion.

Quote

01-30-2019 , 08:30 PM

#6924

coordi

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 23,765

Quote:

Originally Posted by syndr0me

Elon didn’t start the company and even if he did your point is irrelevant

Its not irrelevant to the thought process of Elon promoting a 36 year old to CFO, which you seem so flabbergasted by.

Should probably read the post closer to

Quote

01-30-2019 , 08:33 PM

#6925

protonewb

journeyman

Join Date: Feb 2017 Posts: 387

You think all the market participants are priced in at $295 ? he has 2 weeks, which is a ton of time value in TSLA-world. Sure there will be an IV-crush, but the last trade on those is $3.1

If they'd let me buy those at $3.1 right now I would take it, and you prob would too. I certainly don't expect $295 or higher at the close tomorrow, let alone 2 weeks from tomorrow.

Quote

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