Yeah thats a good way to think of it. Its very possible it was conceived of as sort of a Madoff style Ponzi where they keep rolling it forward. If not for customers self-reporting their VINs to the Tesla tracker its possible that they could do it forever and nobody would know (as long as they sell a bare mininum of cars as you point out.)

The other interesting aspect is that its only the M3s. Not sure if the sales of S/X are harder to fudge due to smaller numbers or because many are leased.

Of course could be they had no idea how many cars they sold and made up a number:

So many morons ITT, even Toothsayer has to agree if he is honest

this is smart. just talk to the youtube guys about starships and fart apps for an hour instead of answering those boring and boneheaded accounting questions.

I am 100% positive TS will agree there are morons in this thread

Model 3 in China. TSLA worldwide takeover.

TSLA reports next week. Last week Musk indicated they will be slightly profitable in Q4. What are the odds TSLA is profitable in Q1 and Q2 2019? That's all the need to join the S&P 500, and then TSLA stock goes to the moon, amirite?

Bears gonna be eating some crow? TSLA to the moon?

i want to know what other stocks he likes

He likes companies that are innovative disruptors. I believe the vast majority of his portfolio is TSLA though. He owns 63 shares of TSLA.

https://twitter.com/cppinvest/status...95377811156992

Not gonna watch past 3 seconds but isn't that the guy that believes Wall Street is conspiring to kill Tesla by setting their delivery and revenue estimations too high?

Also reports from Dallas, Vegas, Phoenix, LA, Philly this weekend and nothing has changed. Demand still nonexistent. Q1 bankruptcy still drawing live...

So you prefer group think when you invest/trade? Refusing to look at #s that don't fit the narrative that you like?

Interesting video that helps to spell out just how stupid the hyperloop idea is. 40 minutes but honestly really interesting.

everybody knows those numbers already, they basically announced them over the last weeks.
it's the conclusions he makes that are wrong.
or maybe he's right and everybody is just waiting to pay 60-100x earnings for a car company...

I still expect an elon upside surprise for Q4 earnings. Elon ****posting on twitter is similar to right before Q3 blowout also. They delivered enough cars to make it creative and somewhat believable.

Q1, however, is shaping up to be a disaster. Europe deliveries are march at best and can't save it. Also the bond payment and cashflow problems will be magnified.

I will be getting back short late thursday or friday probably.

If I'm wrong and Q4 is ugly AND they admit it, I don't mind getting short lower than current levels either, so no need to gamble on the earnings/accounting tricks coming wednesday night.

Elon pretty much already told us what to expect for Q4, very slight profit. Isn't guidance what most people will be focused on? If Q1 is an absolute disaster, how will he be able to guide positive?

I expect him to upsell "huge" demand in europe, put a date on model Y, forecast china mudpit production, etc. I don't think he gives any Q1 FINANCIAL guidance other than what he already said - "maybe break even". Q1 is the beginning of the end, though it may take longer than most bears hope.

Also a chance he announces a big fund raise which would pretty much kill the bear case but I still think he essentially can't raise.

i honestly don't care about a few $100m profit or loss.
i care about their future plans and whether they are atleast a tiny bit realistic and how they plan to fund those and their debt repayments.
they are still priced at a ridiculous growth-multiple and have announced no timeline to even remotely get there.

LOL, thats like accusing someone in a politics discussion of group think for ignoring an Alex Jones video.

maybe i'm losing my marbles but i swear i MSpainted the sun from 11m17s and i cant remember where i did it

But isn't the bear case more like the Alex Jones video? I'm open to all ideas but what I see from the bear side are mostly unsubstantiated reports of delivery lots with low activity (often without any analysis of the lots' actual output) and crazy unfounded conspiracies like the Boring Co is purchasing tens of thousands Teslas to prop up TSLA numbers. On the flip side the bulls are actually showcasing #s behind their thesis. Bears didn't even think TSLA would hit profitability much less have the #1 selling luxury vehicle in the US. When bears start resorting to calling Tesla's low quality vehicles then anyone with a brain knows they are just grasping at straws.

Yes there are alex jones-like components of the bear case. But the core bear case is, and always has been: after the initial demand for the 70k M3, the rest of the demand is for a 35k version, as promised. Tesla cannot make money with a 35k M3 so it does not exist.

Models S/X are already tired and a refresh or new model Y/semi requires a HUGE amount of capital investment and they don't have the money. The bond payments alone this year are crippling. Without a large fund raise there is no money left to run the business let alone invest in "growth" required for the stock to trade at such a high multiple.

That's why the bear case ends with a large fund raise, which should have been done ages ago if Tesla was indeed a "growth company" - but it was not done either because elon is stubborn or they can't for whatever reason.

It's that simple. Tesla trades like a high tech super-growth company. It's not, it's a marginally profitable car maker without funds to invest in massive growth, facing a cash crunch and demand cliff. That does not mean Instant Bankruptcy as some delusional bears think, it means the stock should trade at a much lower multiple.

Still being the operative word. TSLA has had a crazy high valuation for quite some time. TSLA stock is only 6% higher than its 2014 peak.