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TSLA showing cracks? TSLA showing cracks?

01-23-2019 , 02:31 PM


council enumerated their complaints 'a'-'uu'
what would one even do after 'zzz'? 'aaaa'? something else?
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01-23-2019 , 02:39 PM
"It appears the Teamsters have dropped their federal claims under the Securities Act of 1933 in the amended complaint. Now they're only alleging one claim under California law, amusing called "The California Law," probably due to a typo, in the footer of every single page. Ouch."

lmao
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01-23-2019 , 02:56 PM
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Originally Posted by syndr0me
Bloomberg terminal news that Tesla spokesperson says Tesla is reducing model X and S production.....what the hell? No way a musk led organization would acknowledge this.

https://twitter.com/teslacharts/stat...633931778?s=21
Trying to get ahead of this damning article by Lora Kolodny: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/23/tesl...roduction.html
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01-24-2019 , 06:46 AM
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Originally Posted by BooLoo
are they worth $60b though?

i would be very interested to hear how you view the tesla lineup!
when do we see model y, semi, pickup and roadster 2 in production?
where will they be build?
if they need new factories:
when do they start construction on those factories?

what's your timeline for all this? here's what the company told us and what i see:

they might have a new factory for m3 in china beginning of next year.

beyond that, big question marks.
Why are you so concerned with the future lineup? What about the lineup today that is already crushing the competition? TSLA's future does not depend on the future lineup. What you are trying to insinuate is
that TSLA can only survive if they have the world's most attractive lineup of cars and cover all segments - the notion alone is wrong-headed.

TSLA is not worth $60bn at the moment and I've never claimed this. They are overvalued at the moment. The future of the company is in my opinion not dependent on a market cap of $50bn+. They will manage just fine with a lower market cap, especially now.

The factories are obviously a necessity and can be a bit challenging. The advantage is that they don't exist yet and can be planned for accordingly. I don't see it as realistic that a competitor emerges that will produce a more compelling car in the near future - especially not at the kind of production numbers that TSLA has.

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Originally Posted by Didace
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Originally Posted by syndr0me
The mind of Spurious, in one post
Is this a joke? What kind of reading comprehension problems do you have? The one statement is about the status quo the other is about a prediction of something that is supposed to happen weeks from now.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dream Crusher
Isn't that just evidence that the auto industry is a ****ty industry to be in? Shouldn't TSLA be focusing on projects with far more potential?
Why do you see no potential? Seemingly the market thinks that this is a $50bn+ opportunity, what is more lucrative? TSLA is obviously disrupting the car industry. Have you seen what the other car makers are currently doing and what kind of mess they are in? 2019 was a horrible year for the car industry.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dream Crusher
It could happen if there is a significant global slowdown. Also, what kind of impact will there be in the US from the tax credits being cut? People have been posting that TSLA's deliveries are down 90% this year. I've seen no confirmation nor denial of this though.
Smartphones were not hurt by the global recession at the end of the last decade. Neither will electric cars be impacted significantly. The market is moving in that direction and a recession will not stop it.

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Originally Posted by Dream Crusher
Is this the type of leader we should be investing in though? One that is not transparent about the truth even if it's due to incompetence rather than ill intent.
You are obsessed with TSLA and don't seem to know how other companies are run and how little it matters how transparent a CEO is.

Last edited by Spurious; 01-24-2019 at 06:52 AM.
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01-24-2019 , 08:32 AM
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Originally Posted by Spurious
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dream Crusher
Is this the type of leader we should be investing in though? One that is not transparent about the truth even if it's due to incompetence rather than ill intent.
You are obsessed with TSLA and don't seem to know how other companies are run and how little it matters how transparent a CEO is.
The guy who doesn't appear to trade Tesla and spends 418 posts white knighting a liar and fraud calls the guy who has 13 posts "obsessed" with Tesla.
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Originally Posted by Who Posted
Spurious 418
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Originally Posted by Who Posted
Dream Crusher 13
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Originally Posted by syndr0me
The mind of Spurious, in one post
Amazing stuff.
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I don't see it as realistic that a competitor emerges that will produce a more compelling car in the near future - especially not at the kind of production numbers that TSLA has.
The iPace already wipes the floor with the piece of **** Model X on its first attempt. That's why it's crushing Tesla in many European countries. The carmakers can easily beat Tesla at their own game, that you think otherwise is comical. We have proof right there in the iPace.

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TSLA is obviously disrupting the car industry. Have you seen what the other car makers are currently doing and what kind of mess they are in? 2019 was a horrible year for the car industry.
You're insane. A carmaker that makes 300K cars into a pool of 80 million isn't disrupting anything. That's 0.4% for ****'s sake. 2018 was the end of a long up cycle in a cyclical business. Tesla is not even disrupting the tiny EV market! That's been growing at 40%/year for a long time and continues to - nothing Tesla is doing is making any difference or will make any difference. It's pure headlines and hype. Tesla are irrelevant and so is Musk. Battery economics - which are independent of Tesla - drive the EV industry and nothing else matters.

Last edited by ToothSayer; 01-24-2019 at 08:41 AM.
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01-24-2019 , 08:33 AM
Does no one else think the starship blowing over is hilarious? I’ve laughed like 20 times about it.
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01-24-2019 , 08:40 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by syndr0me
Does no one else think the starship blowing over is hilarious? I’ve laughed like 20 times about it.
I was just trying to figure out how many Teslas would be needed to fart simultaneously to knock over a SpaceX rocket ship.
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01-24-2019 , 09:55 AM
I did chuckle at the "starship" but had a bigger lol over Elon's "just got regulatory approval" for enhanced summon. lol WAT the government is closed you moron. And there is 0 chance that will get approved before full self driving stuff.

Edit: And of course when a reporter called the company and asked "what regulator exactly" there was no comment. Amazing stuff.

Last edited by protonewb; 01-24-2019 at 10:06 AM.
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01-24-2019 , 04:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spurious
You are obsessed with TSLA and don't seem to know how other companies are run and how little it matters how transparent a CEO is.
Transparency certainly matters to me when I'm making investment decisions.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
01-24-2019 , 04:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dream Crusher
Transparency certainly matters to me when I'm making investment decisions.
It might not matter much for a healthy, well-funded company, but when you're broke and need to raise its probably a good idea to keep potential investors in the loop
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01-24-2019 , 07:03 PM
... lawyers would disagree. If you need to raise and do it quickly, keep your mouths shut because you never know what random reg you'd trip.

This is especially true for a firm like Tesla. (hybrid financing, lots of private equity holders, and obviously SEC scrutiny).

That said, I don't think Musk is shutting up because of lawyers. More likely, bankers told him to shut up and/or he's snorting coke somewhere.
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01-24-2019 , 07:10 PM
We were not discussing a problem with Musk keeping his mouth shut but rather a problem with Musk saying things that were not true.
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01-24-2019 , 07:47 PM
HUGE amount of latitude in forward looking statements. Reg approval can mean a lot of things.

I do believe Tesla is in constant struggle with its auditors and the SEC and there is some pretty shady stuff going on. But what some of you are proposing (Boring buying Tesla cars) is non-sense.

Saying Tesla isn’t disrupting the industry just flies in the face of what every car exec is saying. Tesla single handey brought EV out of the Prius hippy tree hugger niche and everyone is looking at how Tesla is building cars. There is zero question Tesla has disrupted the industry in a big way.

I don’t think the disruption has created enough value for Tesla shareholders. The firm is basically volunteering billions of investor dollars to be the skunkworks of entire car industry. Why invest hundreds of millions (billions even) in super advanced robots/batteries (that are only marginally better, or even worse than existing tech) when you can just catch up a two or three years later?

This kind of shareholder value destruction however is easy to portray as “innovation.” And I think that’s where a lot of the cognitive disconnect is. Tesla is generating innovation and positive externalities but it’s just not capturing enough of the value.

When I look at Tesla, I see three big components of value:
1. Tesla brand (innovation, fast EV, loyal customer base and so on. Think Jaguar being worth billions even when it was selling virtually nothing)
2. A giant long term option on Musk somehow finding an adjacent business (see AMZN making money off stuff increasingly removed from books)
3. A manufacturing business that I believe is actually currently negative value and exists solely as a vehicle for Musk to raise money and expand the brands of Musk and Tesla. This part can also be considered a long term option on possibility Musk gets Ralph Laurened (basically forced into co-CEOing with someone actually capable of managing the company and the founder.)

My problem with the bear thesis is so much of the value is embedded in de facto long term options in 2 and 3 that it’s reallly realllly hard for Tesla to just crash and burn in the near future.
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01-24-2019 , 08:29 PM
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Originally Posted by grizy
HUGE amount of latitude in forward looking statements. Reg approval can mean a lot of things.

I do believe Tesla is in constant struggle with its auditors and the SEC and there is some pretty shady stuff going on. But what some of you are proposing (Boring buying Tesla cars) is non-sense.

Saying Tesla isn’t disrupting the industry just flies in the face of what every car exec is saying. Tesla single handey brought EV out of the Prius hippy tree hugger niche and everyone is looking at how Tesla is building cars. There is zero question Tesla has disrupted the industry in a big way.

I don’t think the disruption has created enough value for Tesla shareholders. The firm is basically volunteering billions of investor dollars to be the skunkworks of entire car industry. Why invest hundreds of millions (billions even) in super advanced robots/batteries (that are only marginally better, or even worse than existing tech) when you can just catch up a two or three years later?

This kind of shareholder value destruction however is easy to portray as “innovation.” And I think that’s where a lot of the cognitive disconnect is. Tesla is generating innovation and positive externalities but it’s just not capturing enough of the value.

When I look at Tesla, I see three big components of value:
1. Tesla brand (innovation, fast EV, loyal customer base and so on. Think Jaguar being worth billions even when it was selling virtually nothing)
2. A giant long term option on Musk somehow finding an adjacent business (see AMZN making money off stuff increasingly removed from books)
3. A manufacturing business that I believe is actually currently negative value and exists solely as a vehicle for Musk to raise money and expand the brands of Musk and Tesla. This part can also be considered a long term option on possibility Musk gets Ralph Laurened (basically forced into co-CEOing with someone actually capable of managing the company and the founder.)

My problem with the bear thesis is so much of the value is embedded in de facto long term options in 2 and 3 that it’s reallly realllly hard for Tesla to just crash and burn in the near future.
I clearly stated that I couldn't solve the missing cars mystery because I don't have inside information and any attempt to come up with a specific explanation would look silly because of how many deductions need to be made but thanks for pointing out that it isn't likely that Boring bought the missing cars!

Feel free to provide your own explanation though. Would love to hear one.
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01-24-2019 , 08:44 PM
Yeah, sure, they ****ed up some inventory control system because they were moving vehicles into whatever account they use to designate cars for export. Just example. There are tons of plausible explanations that just involve general incompetence but that's not fraud.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
01-24-2019 , 08:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by grizy
HUGE amount of latitude in forward looking statements. Reg approval can mean a lot of things.
Here is the actual tweet:
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1087861594892029953

"Regulators just approved." is NOT a forward looking statement. A forward looking statement would be "I expect approval...." or "Any day now".

What he said was past tense. It either happened or it didn't. When a well-known reporter followed up with Tesla Corporate Communications as to the specific regulator/any name they said "No Comment". Nevermind the government of Telsa's home country is shut down so any such approval however unlikely, was impossible to have "just" happened.

It's called a lie, no matter if fueled by cocaine or narcissism/delusion.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
01-24-2019 , 09:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by grizy
Yeah, sure, they ****ed up some inventory control system because they were moving vehicles into whatever account they use to designate cars for export. Just example. There are tons of plausible explanations that just involve general incompetence but that's not fraud.
So under your explanation the registered number of cars is accurate but the reported deliveries are not due to incompetence? So when are they going to correct their statements that they sold 15k more cars than they actually did? Seems important.
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01-24-2019 , 09:19 PM
I assume no such thing. Something was screwed up. It wouldn't be surprising the mistake was discovered because they were desperate to find ways to turn a profit.

Kind of like how someone desperately looking for money occasionally finds some money he lost under the couch.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
01-24-2019 , 09:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by grizy
I assume no such thing. Something was screwed up. It wouldn't be surprising the *mistake* was discovered because they were desperate to find ways to turn a profit.
Yes, mistake, right....
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01-24-2019 , 09:33 PM
I don’t really buy the missing VINs story, partly because incomplete information, the other part part because it doesn’t really matter
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01-24-2019 , 09:42 PM
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Originally Posted by syndr0me
I don’t really buy the missing VINs story, partly because incomplete information, the other part part because it doesn’t really matter
I don't understand it well enough to have a strong opinion but it seems there's at least some creative/deceptive accounting going on there if not something outright fraudulent. It's just another bullet on the list of reasons Tesla management is shady af.

Likely doesn't matter in the end, but you never know what the catalyst that brings the house of cards down will be until it happens.
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01-24-2019 , 09:51 PM
Its actually really simple.

I don't have the exact numbers in front of me because I'm on the run but it goes like this:

-The number of cars registered with NMVTIS has lagged the number of deliveries Tesla reports by 20k plus since September 2018.

-Part of this is because Tesla delays registering with NMVTIS- we've seen customers complaining about waiting 60 or even 90 days for a title.

-So some of the 20k missing VINS are legit sales for which registration is delayed. But this number is dynamic- it moves forward. The customers that bought in September and October eventually get their titles and are replaced by customers in November and December waiting for their titles.

-But at this point the book should be closed on October sales. 96% of the customers who bought before 10/31 and input a VIN to the Tesla tracker spreadsheet have received their cars according to NMVTIS.

-BUT there are still 15k missing. That portion of the 20k VINS is static. It is missing from the (final) September or October numbers and therefore at this point its fraudulent to still claim 92k M3 deliveries or whatever the number is through 10/31 when only 77k were registered.
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01-24-2019 , 10:09 PM
That sounds like a ponzi of sorts... claiming sales already happened knowing there will be more sales coming... along with obfuscating things by delaying registrations so the ponzi is less apparent.

Is that how you interpret it MrFeelNothin? And if so, wouldn't that be exposed shortly with US demand cratering in Q1?
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01-24-2019 , 10:32 PM
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Originally Posted by stinkypete
That sounds like a ponzi of sorts... claiming sales already happened knowing there will be more sales coming... along with obfuscating things by delaying registrations so the ponzi is less apparent.

Is that how you interpret it MrFeelNothin? And if so, wouldn't that be exposed shortly with US demand cratering in Q1?
Its not really a Ponzi, just basic level management fraud. If this is what is going on its almost 100% it didn't start in October.
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01-24-2019 , 11:58 PM
TSLA shareholders, make sure you get on Say to ask questions for the upcoming shareholder meeting...or at least up vote the questions you want asked:

https://say.com/earnings/tesla

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