Obviously there is a lot going on behind the scenes and I don't have any inside information so the more deductions I try to make to piece things together the farther from the truth I will likely end up. And I will also start to sound like a nutter. But its fun so I will give a comprehensive conspiracy theory a go:

Theory: Tesla was in a cash crunch in September. Model 3 production was a disaster. Q3 was going to be a loss and then game over. Elon and Deepak conceive of plan for BoringCo to borrow money from SpaceX and then buy 15k Teslas with that money. (and maybe some of the money is Elon's as well.) Later I will opine about why Boring and how Elon planned to make it right retroactively.

First off if my theory were true who would need to know?

At Tesla- just Elon and Deepak initially, anyone else? Remember they don't have a CAO the last one quit after less than a month. And remember Elon thanking Deepak profusely on Q3 call for saving the company. Tesla's ERP and inventory tracking are disasters. They have thousands of cars stored at dozens of lots across the country- including at SpaceX! How hard would it be to disappear 15k?

At Boring Co- Lol.

At SpaceX- Maybe nobody for awhile if the money is flowing fast enough.

However I will argue that it didn't stay quiet. SpaceX investors asked questions when Elon came back to them sooner than expected for more money and found out the truth putting in to motion all the pieces leading up to last Friday.

We have solid reporting that Musk used SpaceX resources for Boring Co project, Thiel found out, wasn't happy, and Musk claimed he retroactively gave 6% of Boring Co to SpaceX investors to make them whole. 6% just for some man hours and borrowed equipment? What if it was money borrowed too- $500 or so million? And who leaked this story if not Thiel himself to put pressure on Elon? And maybe part of the agreement was also Musk ceding control at SpaceX and Tesla?

Musk's MO would be to pump and raise his way out of the mess not this cost cutting and revising guidance downward. Which it seemed like he was planning to do with Tunnel and China groundbreaking events but compared to past displays they were halfhearted and lacked follow through. Maybe because in between planning them and carrying them out Elon lost control of Tesla.

What could Elon have done recently that is a big enough ****up to get him to cede power willingly? Remember that this is the guy that blew up a sweetheart settlement deal with the SEC before being forced back into it 24 hours later.

What if Elon's plan was to juice Q3 numbers by having BoringCo buy 15k Teslas, then pull a "solar roof" style presentation with the Boring tunnel reveal thereby raising funds for Boring. Which naturally they would have to use to buy Teslas since it was just revealed that Elon's mass transit tunnel uses only Teslas. THAT WAS THE PLAN ALL ALONG BOOM ANOTHER SYNERGY. Meanwhile SpaceX was suddenly under extreme financial pressure and had to raise again in December. (under my theory they would be short cash since Elon tunneled SpaceX funds to Boring.)

Only it didn't work because the presentation was a disaster and I think he got found out beforehand since the Thiel story ran the day before (and Elon was quoted as to why it sucked- "I ran out of time.")

Now the legal liabilities are too great so Gracias is in charge of packaging up this turd nicely for a Chapter 11 with part time counsel Butswinkas (hired 12/6 but kept his big firm job) assisting on a short term basis and possibly Alvarez and Marsal consulting.

Keep in mind the wheels of this recent cost cutting campaign must have begun turning in December even though demand hadn't died yet and Tesla appeared relatively healthy on the surface. Why?

I predicted bankruptcy by end of Q1 last week but that was based on the lack of demand just since Jan 1- would they have moved this quickly to layoffs and other measures if it was just the last few weeks that were the problem? I wasn't expecting the **** to hit the fan for a few more weeks...

Whew, all the conspiracies are out of my system. I feel much better now.

Alternate theory- the large Account Receivable attributable to a single entity in the Q3 earnings was the self dealing Boring Co transaction.

Funds were to come from a raise after the tunnel reveal but never came due to a similar sequence of events as my above theory.

^ very solid

What is the absolute most generous explanation for the missing VIN's at this point in your mind? I was also going with a mix of incompetence that happened to help them out until the TMC tracker cross check seemed to rule that out.

The 15k bulkbuy is hidden with 15k other real buyers that are waiting on real registrations - TSLA stalling to save the sales tax and still count the inventory + the buyers $. So the total unregistered is over 30k but they can claim "inefficiencies" with registrations and the 15k doesn't stand out so much because real customers are complaining too.

Not sure I buy the "elon has lost control" narrative but the weird memo + no real elon hype on twitter (and more inane 420 stuff) means he could be preparing for the exits in the next quarter. That debt payment going to hurt. As long as they don't do a real fund raise the ship will sink eventually.

This will make for an amazing movie/mini series

Agree Elon has probably not yet lost control, just seems like his character would flip out enormously if that actually happens. More likely he is just operating on his own and will continue to get isolated until a big enough blow takes him out.

I can't think of an innocent explanation. I guess the simplest is that they lied about delivery and production numbers

Covered short. Still have long-term puts. will we have another run to 350 so it can be shorted to 300 again?

The Model 3 is not a profitable car yet. They can produce the high end version profitably and still have enough buyers and the entire world minus North America to serve, but this can't last forever. Elon is pretty confident in their ability to sell the Model 3 high end version profitably, he is more worried about taking the foot from the gas pedal and not achieving profitability for the $35,000 version.

Also, do you mean profitability or cash-flow positiveness? The latter is extremely more important than the former.

Interested to know why you would look at other car manufacturers and leave out the fact that there are several of them that hardly make a profit and have a less promising lineup and have been around for years? You are too focused on TSLA and forget the world around it - just like all the other bears ITT who don't know how manufacturing works and what it entails to go bankrupt as a manufacturing company.

It will not shrink, this is absolutely stupid to think. Why do you even think this? By significantly, I meant more than doubling.
Elon said single digit weeks away from it, Elon does not know how to predict anything beyond 2 weeks. It was nonsense, obviously.

are they worth $60b though?

i would be very interested to hear how you view the tesla lineup!
when do we see model y, semi, pickup and roadster 2 in production?
where will they be build?
if they need new factories:
when do they start construction on those factories?

what's your timeline for all this? here's what the company told us and what i see:

they might have a new factory for m3 in china beginning of next year.

beyond that, big question marks.

Lmao, this is going to be the image that summarizes the entire musk empire when all is said and done. Starship blows over less than a mont after going vertical. Anyone who thinks this was anything but a charade is a stone cold moron.

https://twitter.com/nasaspaceflight/...062148609?s=21

We also know they don’t have an agreement in place to buy batteries yet, no source of funding for Chinese GF and no formal acknowledgement by any Tesla representative outside of Musk that the entire thing actually has a 2019 timeline. The last time it was mentioned was in Q2 EC I believe where they contradicted their own timeline within the call.

.

LOL

Isn't that just evidence that the auto industry is a ****ty industry to be in? Shouldn't TSLA be focusing on projects with far more potential?

It could happen if there is a significant global slowdown. Also, what kind of impact will there be in the US from the tax credits being cut? People have been posting that TSLA's deliveries are down 90% this year. I've seen no confirmation nor denial of this though.

Is this the type of leader we should be investing in though? One that is not transparent about the truth even if it's due to incompetence rather than ill intent.

The mind of Spurious, in one post

yeah, of course it's unlikely. we know they basically miss every deadline.

but just more low margin m3s - one year from now, that's not even a valid bull case if they make it. but it's the best they can come up with.
where's the y, the semi, the roadster, fsd, solar?

I short covered today @291. I plan to get in again next week after earnings.

It feels like a beartrap to me, the warning email is similar to his email on the last day of Q3 saying "we're close to being profitable" and then posting blowout earnings soon after. This is legit his last chance to get close to $350 and the conversion price on the march debt. I really doubt it gets that far but hope to get short again around $320-$330 after Q4 comes in nearly as good as Q3 (but probably fake).

Even if I'm wrong I will get short again after earnings. This sucker is headed to double digits this year unless they do a massive fund raise which doesn't seem possible. It's no longer a growth company, there is no money to fund growth.

Panasonic who I think makes the model S and X batteries has entered into a partnership with Toyota to produce EV batteries and explore improving battery tech.

It's certainly possible protonewb, >25% possible imo, and I don't blame you for caution. My analysis of the email at $330 is about the effect that the language would have on bears (strong selling) in the following days, not whether it's real.

At this point with earnings moved up Musk controls the narrative for one more earnings. He has a couple of winds in his favor. High ASPs prior to demand cliff/end of subsidies. They've likely done their several hundred million dollar inventory reduction from reduced delivery times (30 -> 20 -> 10 days for Q2 -> Q3 -> Q4) like they did in Q3 and said on the call they would be able to do this quarter. The is one time (two time in fact) big boost to the bottom line. So there's room to game this for sure, even without considering fraud.

Ironically, the government/SEC shutdown is probably Musk's biggest problem now.

The shutdown narrows his funding option to straight bank loans (pretty much) since even private equity syndicated loans would require disclosure that requires SEC signatures. (technically, some avenues are available but people don't like doing those because the penalties for blowing up the limitations are so severe.)

Were you the one short like 4K shares?

Bloomberg terminal news that Tesla spokesperson says Tesla is reducing model X and S production.....what the hell? No way a musk led organization would acknowledge this.

https://twitter.com/teslacharts/stat...633931778?s=21

3k shares

Would love to be in puts but the premiums are way too high so I just short. Also I expect this to drag out longer than most bears so puts just don't do it. My bear thesis hasn't changed and I will be short again, just wary of the phantom earnings pump this time around like Q3.

I personally see no reason to cover and I have never covered my shorts, although I have taken some hedges via calls and selling covered puts before.

It's a dead growth story and it will be repriced like a car company with a dead growth story, assuming they don't simply go BK.