Like I said, the majority of people really stretching to spend $35k minus tax credit aren't making $58k/year.

But I'll concede that anyone buying the car should be able to take advantage of most of the credit if they're not being totally irresponsible with their money.

Without looking it up, I'd be very surprised if 25k cars have higher profit share of car industry as a whole than 35k cars even if there are a LOT more 25k cars.

$20k-29.99k is over 5x as big of a market as $30-39.99k.

Nobody was discussing profitability just demand.

They don't need the full 7500 + state or whatever. It just needs to be enough to entice them into spending more than they usually do. The credit aspect of it only helps this, if you get a Camry for 3k more than your neighbor you will feel like an idiot. If you get 4k vs 7k in 'free' money it doesn't sting the same.

Everything about the car was framed as super cheap, even if they didn't come up with a spreadsheet about cost savings the idea was:

-No gas costs, maybe free supercharging

-Lower maintenance costs (no brake jobs it regen stops, no transmission, no oil, no coolant) the idea of a car like an iphone where it just works and you don't have to schedule service appointments and hope they aren't screwing you is very appealing

-No negotiation required at the dealer, fantasy of Tesla as being on the consumers side and giving everyone an equal fair price

-Higher re-sale values, people could even buy at 27.5k if they were on the list and flip higher (lol)

Elon exploited every main area that people who don't understand how the world works would lap up. These suckers never got a chance though and now sales are down 80-90%/ I haven't seen any guesses as to when regular run-rate demand will come back, I can only imagine it will be a slow taper. Part of the problem with this is the credit will keep getting cut and of course the competition will be online.

It is starting to feel like the only risk is he can scam/blackmail some billionaire into floating things before my puts expire.

Good synthesis. I've seen all these points made by delusional bulls but didn't really consider how they all could play together in creating the bull**** 420k reservations.

The maintenance myth has surely been BUSTED by now. Re-sale values dropping fast although don't know if that is public knowledge. Supercharger costs just raised worldwide. Maybe more to come in CA with PGE bankruptcy. DC sales experience widely panned as a complete ****show. Tax credit halved and will halve again in four months.

Great thread here about someone else essentially making the decisions now at Tesla as the end-game nears:

https://twitter.com/cppinvest/status...045935104?s=20

I think you misunderstand what a credit is vs a deduction


Credit is literally money back in return no matter what

My point was the 7k tax credit is gone so by the time they have a 35k version it will be a net 33-35k car most likely, AT BEST, I agree a 27k car is a totally different thing likely would have very high demand

No, you're the one who doesn't get it. You cant get money back. If you don't owe $7500 in taxes you can't use the full credit.

I will admit I never looked it up given 7.5k in taxes isn’t much, but I assumed it was treated like the EIC and other credits where your income tax isn’t relevant. Are you sure about this?

Does anyone on this forum use google? Seems like people just state things as fact over and over until the other person googles it.

https://www.google.com/search?q=can+...hrome&ie=UTF-8

"With refundable credits, if you qualify, you can still use the credit even if you have no tax liability. ... Even with no taxes owed, taxpayers can still apply any refundable credits they qualify for and receive the amount of the credit or credits as a refund."

https://www.google.com/search?q=are+...hrome&ie=UTF-8

"The Qualified Plug-in Electric Drive Motor Vehicle Credit is a non refundable credit. A non refundable credit can reduce your tax liability to 0 (zero), however it cannot result in a refund. ... If your tax liability is zero you would not receive the credit at all, even though you are otherwise eligible for it."

Tax benefit can only reduce liability. I feel the FIT has a powerful psychological element to it. No one creates some dispassionate purchase evaluation of [money out ] to [ car in ]. It is, 'I am paying x and getting y,z,etc as credits and discounts'

I don't support the pickup truck losers who block superchargers, but everyone else is effectively paying taxes for the people buying luxury cars.

edit, JKC beat me to this


For the non-twitter obsessed it seems like Tesla is moving 1 car a day per DC or something. They have got to be in panic mode since there is no way for them to know when things will pick up.

Tesla quietly removing service centers across Europe from official Tesla website as they prepare for Model 3 launch.

Cue grizy coming in to tell us Gordon Gekko used to do this and its totally standard.

Keeeeed to say how its trivial Tesla can just raise at $200.

Spurious will remind us how nothing matters because Tesla isn't bankrupt yet even though someone three years ago said their business model sucks.

ChipRick to add "this."

The thing about ChipRick, Spurious, and others like them is not so much the disagreeing with TSLA bears, but the refusal to acknowledge or even lend credence to the bear case, whatever it may be (they are not a monolithic group as much as these posters like to pretend).

That said, the "stock price, bro" argument has prevailed for years now. We all know the ignorance that lies within that, but TSLA has been "running at 80 MPH" forever now. What "checkpoints" on the future timeline are reasonable spots for bankruptcy? It seems more likely that TSLA never gets there or that they are purchased before BK...

Also, why did SpaceX fail to raise $?

So Jim Cramer would say we should hold, like he did with Bear Stearns because worse case they would get bought out. He failed to mention it would be for $2/share.

Ya im following this too, the drop posted by many of the Q members looks to be enormous, not 50% but 80+


Also there was some rumors about Tesla laying off another 10% of workers floating around. Obviously take all of this with a grain of salt


I still don’t know what to make of the end of the referral program. Seems so polarized, either it’s good news for Tesla or its really really bad news

Serious q or no?

Apparently they tried to present financials the way saas companies do using Billings/bookings instead of revenue. It is likely they took that yousuck dude for tens of millions with all sorts of promises and present that as top line revenue despite not delivering any of expenses. Even then They likely show a loss.


In short, it’s a horrible investment run by a con man

haha very nice

Yeah the massiveness of this demand cliff is the core of my Q1 bankruptcy thesis I posted last week. At this point it will be news if they ever start selling again.

In today's signs of a company in midst of cash crunch and possible reorganization:

-Emails to customersupport@tesla.com bouncing back- mailbox is full.
-Fremont and gigafactory down for MLK day- supposedly without advance notice to employees
-Rumors of more layoffs and across the board paycuts at gigafactory
-Customers complaining there hasn't been a software update since before xmas
-5 Boring co employees laid off- there might not be any left

I also don't think anyone noted in the midst of last week's craziness that SpaceX pulled out of Port of LA lease they signed last year and were supposedly developing as recent as November.

I got him to post three words at once!

Ya the emails bouncing was lol

You know they cut support and IT well past the bone

Fun thread

Not endorsing it but for those following the VIN stuff by @teslacharts it makes it a bit more interesting. Q3 numbers didn’t smell right imo

https://twitter.com/boriquagato/stat...002782721?s=21

Up until last week I assumed the VIN delays were either inadvertent (letting another fire burn) or at worst intentional just to the extent of holding on to sales tax for an extra month.

But it is now clearly fraud or self dealing. The proof is that 96% of the 500 M3 VINs supplied by customers to the TMC tracker by 10/31 are in the NMVTIS database. Yet the total NMVTIS M3 numbers for that same timeframe are 15k lower than Tesla reported (over 15%.)

I believe another Musk company (most likely Boring Co) bought 15k Teslas at the end of September to juice the Q3 earnings.

How would something like that stay quiet?

How would not having 70b for a publicly announced buyout stay quiet? Elon slamming this into a wall in the most spectacular corporate collapse of 20 years is why I can't bring myself to cover every time it dips.