So much emotion ITT and among Tesla bears, living in this alternate fantasy making jokes about Elon and the stock price. 1700 posts between TS (his third account posting in here) and syndrome alone, I'm sure all that energy will have been worth it eventually.

Just re-entered short again here @ $350 - this is like the 5th time I'm entering this trade over the past 12 months.

We knew demand would crash (at least temporarily) after the new year since Tesla was pushing so hard to get people to buy before the tax credit halved.

But at what point does the lack of demand become a going concern? End of the month? Mid February? If twitter reports are to be believed U.S. deliveries across the country are down 90%+ from December to January. All models.

https://twitter.com/Latrilife/status...06169916653568

And we know from public databases that despite having inventory available Tesla has sold only two (2!) cars in the Netherlands in 17 days compared to 2210 in December.

Amidst this staggering demand to start 2019 Elon just ended the referral program. Very strange.

Really interesting thread on a VIP Tesla fanboy being treated like **** and slowly turning on Tesla:

https://twitter.com/ParadiseTrader3/...80201194934272

They also discontinued the 75kwh S/X without explanation, which iirc were a majority of S/X sales

A better financially managed firm would have raised capital last year in preparation for planned CapEX in Shanghai. But it's Elon we're talking about here. He ain't raising money until he needs the money some time last month.

Uhhhh since when? Raising money IS his business.

I count almost $5 billion in debt and over $5 billion in equity raised by Tesla over the last 5 years. How many times did SpaceX try to raise in 2018- 3? 4?

i do

I'm tempted to get in short again now as well. The one thing holding me back is that there is an earnings report coming out in a couple weeks. If Tesla reports a pretty solid profit again this quarter, I find it hard to believe that the stock will do anything other than test all time highs. I know all in the thread will discuss the ways that their accounting is shoddy and demand has dropped off, etc. But two quarters in a row of profits plus the Elon hype machine I think is an opportunity for the stock price to spike.

Anyone see any good analysis or predictions of what Tesla is expected to report profit wise?

Earnings would also entail guidance which should be awful. But reality never stopped Musk from lying before so good point I should probably trim a little until affer after earnings.

this

The substantial majority of the value of AMZN, or at least where they make all the money, is from it's two high margin cash machines.....AWS and ads.

In order for the TSLA ----> AMZN analogy to hold there needs to be a path to a large market high margin business; now Bulls will likely argue that's something to do with self driving or the supercharger network or whatever the bull case that lady who thinks TSLA is a bargain at 4,000.00 lays out.

I can't speak to any of that. But I can tell you what definitely is not a large market high margin business....and that's building more cars. And that's what you do in a factory. One more factory makes them one step closer to being FORD rather than AMZN.

I personally think this (Chine giga factory announcement) is just another stop on the hype train to keep this whole thing rollin down the tracks. Elon has to know that the only way this company remotely grows into it's valuation, much less the trillion dollar market cap he's spoken of in the past, is they have to hit a moonshot with self driving or something. Or maybe he's just doing anything he can to keep the music going and keep this thing from imploding for as long as possible; out of ego or desperation or delusion or whatever.

you guys should really read up on your AMZN history (especially with regards to capital raised and working capital) if you want to draw a comparison to TSLA...

cutting another 7% of workforce after cutting 9% last june.
musk also indicated they made a profit in q4, although less than in q3. looks like higher numbers can't make up for the drop in asp.

Musk confirms the bears are correct:
Couldn't even sustain the previous tiny profit on $60K cars while producing/delivering more AND reducing delivery times further (a $700 million one time item straight to the bottom line like Q3 as it allows inventory reduction) AND having a $7500 government subsidy AND not growing capex AND giving horrible customer service!

Bulls need to read those sentences over and over until they understand them.
This is an admission that profitability is finished.

Not only cutting full time workforce by 7%, but also temps and contractors, by an amount unspecified. They're only producing 4300/week steady state and there haven't been improvements in automation; their service is famously horrible with month+ waits and no one answering even with the small volume of existing cars, the Gigafactory should be ramping, not declining...where are these staff coming from?

You can't cut $25K off current prices where you're not even making a profit at $60K ASP -despite Model S/X providing a big profit stream - and still remain profitable. That is impossible. Musk is admitting here that $35K Model 3 is only possible with deeply negative margins, which is what the bears have said all along (Musk cannot produce a $35K model 3 at a profit and thus once high end demand dries up, Tesla are ****ed as they need vast sums of capital to keep ramping, which they've never needed before due to vast market cap relative to needed funds on a small volume of ultra expensive cars).

This against the backdrop of SpaceX cutting 10% of employees (after failing a modest funding round) and Musk embezzling funds for his Boring Company (itself an attempt to get public money).

so much for the $360 convert...
still nothing about china factory financing.

The predictions of a "tiny profit" next quarter with "great difficulty, effort and luck" is what will spook the bulls. Everyone will read between the lines here and see a half billion dollar loss incoming. What is there to look forward to with the stock at $330? Losses after claiming "permanently profitable" are the exact opposite of what bulls need to see to stay invested at these valuations. Especially when ASPs will be tanking, which comes directly off the bottom line.

Musk has also taken any joy out of the coming results for bulls with a "less than last quarter" profit despite ramping.There's nothing left to look forward to for the bulls in the medium term but pain, risk, and losses. Even some diehard fans will sell here and buy back later.

'I also want to emphasize that we are making this hard decision now so that we never have to do this again.' - Elon after cutting 9% of the workforce in june...

just file for bk and hire a real ceo so some people might be able to keep their jobs...

Q1 shaping up to be a total disaster for TSLA. What does everyone think is the best way to play this?

Buy more Feb and March $300 puts yesterday.

Its not worth engaging ChipRick all his TSLA posts are cryptic one linees and he disappears when the share price drops under $350.

I find it interesting that Alvarez and Marsal were in the Bay (after dealing with SpaceX in OC) while Elon was by himself at the China factory "groundbreaking." Were they planning these layoffs, the 75d cut, the referral program cut...more to come?

Is Elon still in charge?

TSLA has a debt payment of close to $1 billion due in Q1. If they get the share price to around $358 then it becomes a convertible note and they can issue TSLA shares instead.

This is true but what does that imply to you if Tesla was forced to announce layoffs today (and admit q4/q1 earnings weakness and worldwide lack of demand for current models) despite the need to pump the share price over $360 by March?