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Old Today, 05:55 PM   #6651
Kazuya
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

So you're pointing out a 73:1 longshot of bankruptcy by April is going to be wrong? The market has priced it at 1.3% -- of course that bet will be marked as a "loss" more times than not. But for all we know, the real % might be 2-6% or something, in which case it's actually a worthwhile discussion to be had. I enjoy the discussion & enjoy hearing both the bull & bankruptcy cases.

Maybe I am biased here, but what is naive or wrong about that? Am I missing something here?
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Old Today, 06:00 PM   #6652
ASAP17
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Originally Posted by Kazuya View Post
So you're pointing out a 73:1 longshot of bankruptcy by April is going to be wrong? The market has priced it at 1.3% -- of course that bet will be marked as a "loss" more times than not. But for all we know, the real % might be 2-6% or something, in which case it's actually a worthwhile discussion to be had. I enjoy the discussion & enjoy hearing both the bull & bankruptcy cases.

Maybe I am biased here, but what is naive or wrong about that? Am I missing something here?
What does this have to do with anything you just wrote in the previous post about me supposedly attacking TS and having a bull view point (which I obviously don't despite the inference)? I didn't bring up those puts, TS did in a response to me asking if MrFeelNothin would be interested in booking a side bet on his prediction. If you believe it's going to happen, then sure take a shot. I'm not arguing whether it's a good bet if that is your thesis, I'm just saying that every time someone has made that prediction in here it's been wrong and a money loser. Full stop, every single TSLA bankruptcy prediction has been wrong.
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Old Today, 06:37 PM   #6653
BooLoo
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

there weren't even that many predictions with a clear timeline. that basically started last year with their dwindling cash position, the february convertibles coming due and them not raising capital (and other signs they might have a cash problem).

before that the calls were always pretty vague: they would never grow into their valuation without massive dilution or problems to grow market share if and when sizeable competition (basically the 3 premium german carmakers) enter the market.

if they raise we are back to those bear cases.
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Old Today, 06:40 PM   #6654
John21
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Developing thesis:

  • Tesla Inc has a Market Cap of 57.40B
  • Apple now has $243.7 billion in cash on hand.
  • The Apple electric car project, codenamed "Titan," is an electric car project undergoing research and development by Apple Inc. Apple still has yet to openly discuss any of its self-driving research, with around 5,000 employees disclosed on the project as of 2018.
  • Planned completion date: 2020
  • Buffett
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Old Today, 06:46 PM   #6655
BooLoo
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Originally Posted by John21 View Post
Developing thesis:

  • Tesla Inc has a Market Cap of 57.40B
  • Apple now has $243.7 billion in cash on hand.
  • The Apple electric car project, codenamed "Titan," is an electric car project undergoing research and development by Apple Inc. Apple still has yet to openly discuss any of its self-driving research, with around 5,000 employees disclosed on the project as of 2018.
  • Planned completion date: 2020
  • Buffett
why buy TSLA for (maybe) $70b when you can just finish the car you are working on and build one or two factories for 10-20b?
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Old Today, 06:52 PM   #6656
ASAP17
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Originally Posted by BooLoo View Post
there weren't even that many predictions with a clear timeline. that basically started last year with their dwindling cash position, the february convertibles coming due and them not raising capital (and other signs they might have a cash problem).

before that the calls were always pretty vague: they would never grow into their valuation without massive dilution or problems to grow market share if and when sizeable competition (basically the 3 premium german carmakers) enter the market.

if they raise we are back to those bear cases.
Does a capital raise mean instant or unavoidable bankruptcy? So many "ifs" in the bear case that its hard to keep them all straight over the years.
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Old Today, 07:09 PM   #6657
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Wink Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Originally Posted by ASAP17 View Post
Does a capital raise mean instant or unavoidable bankruptcy? So many "ifs" in the bear case that its hard to keep them all straight over the years.
Read his post again. Boo is saying that "if" they raise then they are out of the cash crunch and the bear thesis backs off predicting imminent bankruptcy and returns to the idea of the valuation being way out of whack for a marginally profitable car company.

One does wonder why they didn't raise on the back of the Q3 "success" as Tesla surely know as well as we do the numbers aren't getting any better any time soon.

Or on the groundbreaking of the Potemkin Gigafactory.

Or on the Boring Tunnel reveal.

Or on the fake SpaceX starship (although that one was designed to distract from layoffs.)

At this point any investors are going to want to see not only Q4/2018 FY earnings but also delivery numbers for January and February.
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Old Today, 07:16 PM   #6658
BooLoo
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

the whole near term bear case was based on stuff they did last year (pushing out their payment targets, demanding refunds from their suppliers, cutting capex, not registering cars on time, getting sued for not paying, there's more but i think you get the point) while at the same time not raising new capital (because maybe they couldn't).

obviously that case is dead if they raise $5b tomorrow.

but it was a valid case. especially if you got 73:1 payout. the ceo is on the record saying they were in real trouble last year.

i don't get your point here at all. are you looking for an exact date and time of day when they will send in their chapter 7 or chapter 11?
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Old Today, 07:19 PM   #6659
MrFeelNothin
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Yep good luck man, I'm always looking to be proven wrong I just think it's not going to happen. The Detroit Auto show yesterday made it clear the competition no longer views Tesla as a niche threat, they are the leader in electric vehicles and will continue to be so until someone really challenges them. It's that simple, their customer base is willing to suffer through the headaches and Elon being a douche bag for the product. Doesn't sound like a bankruptcy is anywhere close but who knows? Maybe demand evaporates and Solar City blows up with an assist if the market tanks, a lot can happen in a couple months but evidence says the stock and sentiment will remain range bound.
Tell me again how the competition really respects Tesla?

https://advancedmanufacturing.org/to...lks-elon-musk/
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Old Today, 07:24 PM   #6660
ASAP17
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Read his post again. Boo is saying that "if" they raise then they are out of the cash crunch and the bear thesis backs off predicting imminent bankruptcy and returns to the idea of the valuation being way out of whack for a marginally profitable car company.

One does wonder why they didn't raise on the back of the Q3 "success" as Tesla surely know as well as we do the numbers aren't getting any better any time soon.

Or on the groundbreaking of the Potemkin Gigafactory.

Or on the Boring Tunnel reveal.

Or on the fake SpaceX starship (although that one was designed to distract from layoffs.)

At this point any investors are going to want to see not only Q4/2018 FY earnings but also delivery numbers for January and February.
Show me how bad things are that the institutional base dumps their equity/bond holdings based on even your worst case scenario, that this quarter will be the breaking point despite a lot of swings over the past couple years and more attention than almost any other stock/company in history. Don't use anecdotal evidence about him working on different projects as the support... Haven't convinced me of anything other than it's your gut opinion lol.
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Old Today, 07:28 PM   #6661
BooLoo
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

are we sure those institutions are smart money? do they even care?
for t rowe price tsla is 0,4% of their holdings, for fidellity it's even less.
it's not even their own money.

Last edited by BooLoo; Today at 07:36 PM.
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Old Today, 07:32 PM   #6662
ASAP17
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Originally Posted by MrFeelNothin View Post
Tell me again how the competition really respects Tesla?

https://advancedmanufacturing.org/to...lks-elon-musk/
Funny that I was put on ignore or proclaimed that was your plan yet you are still here engaging with me, guess it's not all zero level content or you are totally wasting both our time lol.

I can post articles too! Plus the point is the total focus of the auto show was all the mass market plans for EVs, who is to thank or responsible for that threat? Hmmmmmmmm, I wonder.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-N...Auto-Show.html
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Old Today, 07:34 PM   #6663
ASAP17
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Originally Posted by BooLoo View Post
are we sure those institutions are smart money?
That wasn't the question, the question was in MrFeelNothin's worst case scenario how or what is going to be the breaking point on the bulls so that it even matters? Not judging whether the current base is smart money or not, they still have a pretty big say on how the stock reacts however.
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Old Today, 07:42 PM   #6664
MrFeelNothin
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Show me how bad things are that the institutional base dumps their equity/bond holdings based on even your worst case scenario, that this quarter will be the breaking point despite a lot of swings over the past couple years and more attention than almost any other stock/company in history. Don't use anecdotal evidence about him working on different projects as the support... Haven't convinced me of anything other than it's your gut opinion lol.
As I stated my (longshot) grand finale prediction is based simply on demand falling off the cliff due to: 1. reservation list & fanboy demand exhausted; 2. U.S. tax credit halved; 3. horrible service and repair issues deterring potential new customers.

We are only 15 days into the quarter but all of the anecdotal evidence available indicates deliveries are down 80-90%+ thus far.

I expect that to pick back up again at some point but my crash and burn scenario is : 1. US M3 deliveries <30k; 2. M3 not ready to sell in EU by EOQ; and 3. S/X deliveries falling 10-20% globally.

That could lead to a $1bn+ loss for the quarter which would be game over for a company struggling to keep the lights on. If they still haven't raised.
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Old Today, 07:45 PM   #6665
MrFeelNothin
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Originally Posted by ASAP17 View Post
Funny that I was put on ignore or proclaimed that was your plan yet you are still here engaging with me, guess it's not all zero level content or you are totally wasting both our time lol.

I can post articles too! Plus the point is the total focus of the auto show was all the mass market plans for EVs, who is to thank or responsible for that threat? Hmmmmmmmm, I wonder.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-N...Auto-Show.html
Never said anything about putting you on ignore. You seem to struggle with reading comprehension.

Not sure how the threat of increasing competition is a good thing for Tesla but yes I agree that the market will look a lot different next year and five years from now. Not part of my imminent collapse thesis but certainly calls into question the current valuation.
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Old Today, 07:48 PM   #6666
John21
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Originally Posted by BooLoo View Post
why buy TSLA for (maybe) $70b when you can just finish the car you are working on and build one or two factories for 10-20b?
It's already on my list, but good question nonetheless. I can think of several reasons why they would and several why they wouldn't. Just like I can think of several reasons why aapl would enter the sector and why they wouldn't; get into the manufacturing/distribution end and why they wouldn't; where they're ultimately going with augmented reality and connectivity; etc. Like I said, it's in development.
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Old Today, 07:49 PM   #6667
ASAP17
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Originally Posted by MrFeelNothin View Post
As I stated my (longshot) grand finale prediction is based simply on demand falling off the cliff due to: 1. reservation list & fanboy demand exhausted; 2. U.S. tax credit halved; 3. horrible service and repair issues deterring potential new customers.

We are only 15 days into the quarter but all of the anecdotal evidence available indicates deliveries are down 80-90%+ thus far.

I expect that to pick back up again at some point but my crash and burn scenario is : 1. US M3 deliveries <30k; 2. M3 not ready to sell in EU by EOQ; and 3. S/X deliveries falling 10-20% globally.

That could lead to a $1bn+ loss for the quarter which would be game over for a company struggling to keep the lights on. If they still haven't raised.
The first part (your three bullet points) could be completely true and you still won't get your prediction right especially given the willingness from Musk/Tesla fans investors to give him/the company money. Until the evidence behind this (like 2025 notes falling off a cliff) changes I don't agree and think you are going to be wrong. We will revisit after they have the Q1 report.
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Old Today, 07:52 PM   #6668
ASAP17
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Originally Posted by MrFeelNothin View Post
Never said anything about putting you on ignore. You seem to struggle with reading comprehension.

Not sure how the threat of increasing competition is a good thing for Tesla but yes I agree that the market will look a lot different next year and five years from now. Not part of my imminent collapse thesis but certainly calls into question the current valuation.
You aren't sure how increasing competition of a clearly growing overall EV pie helps the leader in EV vehicles? Can't really help ya then. Plus these competitors still are late to market in both substance and impact to date.
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Old Today, 08:16 PM   #6669
MrFeelNothin
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Originally Posted by ASAP17 View Post
The first part (your three bullet points) could be completely true and you still won't get your prediction right especially given the willingness from Musk/Tesla fans investors to give him/the company money. Until the evidence behind this (like 2025 notes falling off a cliff) changes I don't agree and think you are going to be wrong. We will revisit after they have the Q1 report.
Congratulations, you are right. My thesis is very unlikely to come to fruition.
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Old Today, 08:39 PM   #6670
stinkypete
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Originally Posted by ASAP17 View Post
You aren't sure how increasing competition of a clearly growing overall EV pie helps the leader in EV vehicles? Can't really help ya then. Plus these competitors still are late to market in both substance and impact to date.
You have to be pretty special to think increasing competition plus a $7500 per car advantage for the field isn't going to destroy Tesla's fake profitability. Tesla is drawing dead to make any money on a car priced under $40k over the next ~5 years.
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Old Today, 08:53 PM   #6671
ASAP17
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Originally Posted by stinkypete View Post
You have to be pretty special to think increasing competition plus a $7500 per car advantage for the field isn't going to destroy Tesla's fake profitability. Tesla is drawing dead to make any money on a car priced under $40k over the next ~5 years.
So what happens if they beat/raise this quarter especially as the stock is near the top of this multi year range? I get that's considered unthinkable with the tax credit going away but something to think about.
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