It's already on my list, but good question nonetheless. I can think of several reasons why they would and several why they wouldn't. Just like I can think of several reasons why aapl would enter the sector and why they wouldn't; get into the manufacturing/distribution end and why they wouldn't; where they're ultimately going with augmented reality and connectivity; etc. Like I said, it's in development.

The first part (your three bullet points) could be completely true and you still won't get your prediction right especially given the willingness from Musk/Tesla fans investors to give him/the company money. Until the evidence behind this (like 2025 notes falling off a cliff) changes I don't agree and think you are going to be wrong. We will revisit after they have the Q1 report.

You aren't sure how increasing competition of a clearly growing overall EV pie helps the leader in EV vehicles? Can't really help ya then. Plus these competitors still are late to market in both substance and impact to date.

Congratulations, you are right. My thesis is very unlikely to come to fruition.

You have to be pretty special to think increasing competition plus a $7500 per car advantage for the field isn't going to destroy Tesla's fake profitability. Tesla is drawing dead to make any money on a car priced under $40k over the next ~5 years.

So what happens if they beat/raise this quarter especially as the stock is near the top of this multi year range? I get that's considered unthinkable on the sell side with the tax credit going away but something worth mentioning because of that fact. There is some more squeeze potential vs a pretty sticky investor base that refuses to sell.

i suppose we are talking about raising guidance for q1 now?
the stock goes up. so what?

i'll be more interested in how they say they will get there. if it's reasonable i might change my thesis.
if it's not, it might be a good entry for some puts.

How willing are you to believe in either side based on one quarter? We're similar in that I'm willing to be convinced either way, I just don't have the data or argument that has yet. For those who can successfully trade this range and keep your emotions out of it, my props to ya. Some nice coin has been made from those willing to have an open mind.

it all depends. there are a lot of moving parts here and i believe the company has been shifting resources around a lot to satisfy the critics.

they grew a lot the last two quarters because they spent a lot of money in the quarters before that. right now capex has grinded to a halt - because investors demanded positive cash flow. m3 production growth in q4 was anemic - if there was any, with average weekly production still just shy of 5000. this might just be what they can produce without risking quality issues.

if they want to grow again, they will need to spend again. a lot. they have given investors the profitability they wanted, soon investors will want to see growth again. elon knows that, but he also knows they can't have both. if they start construction on the china factory, q1 will be red. so in the end, they will have sacrificed 6 months (q3 & q4) of their longterm growth plan for short term stock price increases.

they can't compete that way. right now bulls are seeing everything they ever wanted: crazy growth rates and green quarters, but that's because they aren't looking.

so to change my view, i would need to see significant investment in future growth that's being funded by a profitable business - not outside capital.

such a fish

what do you think happens? they either raise debt and pay an absurd interest rate or they raise equity/convertibles and dilute massively. squeeze potential is there if actual good news were to ever come out but that's super unlikely in the near future. if they dilute it gets harder and harder for musk, ellison and their other rich friends to pump/manipulate the stock.

comments are all owners complaining that the design is trash

Wow, there have been so many posts ITT since I last posted. Unfortunately most of them were more like no value chat content.

This is a good point about the solar roofs. I saw an article in late 2018 where Musk had said they had installed hundreds of these roofs but then TSLA clarified his comments saying his numbers included roofs that were just ordered as well as roofs that were partially installed. TSLA has not mass produced these roofs whatsoever and I believe there have only been a handful of these installations, maybe a couple dozen, mostly close to the headquarters.

One customer said it cost him $100k which is just lol. I actually bought TSLA stock when I first heard about the solar roof a long time ago because I thought that would be a real game changer but I sold it when I discovered the roof was only financially viable for new homes, not replacing existing roofs (And that's taking Tesla's word for it).

I am aware that Elon has a long track record of not hitting deadlines. Although, I hear these sort of things move much faster in China than elsewhere. A company erected a 57 story skyscraper there in 19 days: Guardian News Article.


I've heard this argument from Jim Chanos and I read a little of what David Einhorn has said but it seems you've done an even better case of illustrating his potential fraudulence.

FWIW, I think the single biggest game changer in the pipeline for TSLA is the autonomous Semi. Perhaps nothing will come of that either in which case I'd say TSLA is just a car company.


Buffett would never buy TSLA himself. Why do you think he would want AAPL to buy it? I actually think he would be quite angry if AAPL purchased TSLA.

TSLA still very much operates like a chicken with its head caught off start up. I'm surprised there aren't many more design issues than this. Design issues can be fixed though, but company culture is far more difficult and that seems to be the crux of many of Tesla's problems. Apparently Tesla's customer service is just awful, and that doesn't surprise me for a company that is focused primarily on growth.

It takes a special type of person to start up companies but it takes a totally different type of person to actually run a mature company. TSLA may not be a mature company yet but it is transitioning to one and while there may be a select few leaders that are good at running both, Elon is clearly not that guy.

They are not focused on growth. They are focused on squeezing out every penny of short term profit they can, both in terms of actual cash flow and on paper, to boost the stock price. And that's obviously a huge concern for a company that isn't profitable and absolutely should be focused on growth.

ASAP your posting mostly sucks, TS posts are way better. Your obsession with him is very weird.

TSLA is undoubtedly still focused on growth. The Shanghai plant will require a capital raise that bears will say is massive (because it will be at least a billion, probably more) but is really nothing relative to TSLA's market cap.

Bears then will call TSLA a pyramid scheme. They might end up being right after all but then... AMZN.

Let me know the next time someone comes in here and looks forward to something you have to say, anything lol. I know reality is tough for you to grasp given how much you probably lost on all your LEAP puts last year but I didn't respond to him in here until I was directly replied to on posts that nothing to do with TS... He followed me but nice try. You may now return to your usual bearish nonsense that helps no one.

You don't like my posts or think I have an unhealthy obsession that ruins the forums, you guys have a BFI mod thread or you can report post. It's a really simple fix, I'm not changing my style or who/what I respond to. Sorry.

Plenty of money was available to be made itt by bear thesis (in the short term ofc) over the past year. Certain things haven’t played out on the bull and bear side but nothing wrong with bearish content assuming it’s backed up with a case. Certainly, bear posts with information are better than zero content posts attacking other posters.

The capital raise for the Shanghai plant should have happened at least several months ago if they were focused on growth. Until that capital raise and actual capex happens it's safe to say they're far more focused on the illusion of growth than actual growth.

Literally nobody looks forward to anything you have to say

Truth, just as plenty of money was made available by the bull thesis (not ITT) over the past year. Can go both ways, I just think it's funny how someone with 650 mostly low/zero content posts ITT is talking **** about someone else's posting (which again is off topic and low/zero content in itself). But sure I'm just attacking users without any sort of provocation... LMAO.

Funny how you still love to reply though, I can always count on engagement from the biggest whiners.

ASAP once served as a useful foil. He would attack other arguments and put forward weak/no content ideas that naturally propelled the discussion. Thanks!

Then things went downhill. He couldn't hide that nothing was about content and instead his own issues of [delusional self image] [transparent attempts to forestall ridicule].

He has now degraded himself to level III. Screaming that he can do whatever he wants if he doesn't break the rules (did anyone ever challenge this?). Openly acknowledging that good/bad posters alike find no value what-so-ever in him and claiming only more stridently that he doesn't care what anyone thinks.

Impossible to back down or admit any of this he is cornered and getting worse. Sadly, unlike most posters who get banned close to this point, he stops and posts 0 content 'Nice trade bro' to whomever he hasn't yet engaged and been rejected by in another weakly transparent attempt to 'fit in'.

Claiming more value than you offer always results in ridicule, derision, scorn, anger from others. If he stayed in his lane then his self image is at stake instead. Odds at this point are very heavy that he chooses to create more anger against himself.

The pumpkin haircut will be the best barometer for if he ever makes a change, awaiting with interest.

I have no dog in this fight I just think the cockiness from TSLA bears when they've proven basically nothing so far is hilarious. Nice to see your time is so valuable that you got this thread back on topic with real high level content and no personal attacks. Oh the hypocrisy...