Did your old man not give you a beating today or something, so you come here for one like a beaten-down dog?

There has been lots of excellent analysis that has been spot on. That Tesla has limped on since the original rip is not that surprising for a fraud in a near record long bull (look at Enron, Madoff etc), but also full credit to Musk for keeping this fraud going and the stock price up with amazing conman skills. Without his skill and barefaced lies it would have been lights out a while ago.

Lol you hate when I come on so much, I can see it through your posts and it's kind of cute. Must explain why the inverse TS etf is doing so well today.

No more than I'd dislike an ex girlfriend with an impulsive attention seeking personality disorder stalking me. It's a low bar you're setting with your idiocy.

Some of us are actually here to discuss the stock and hear opinions, since we actually trade and are here to make money, not have threads derailed by your personality disorder and lack of intelligence.

Heh, funny how all of my posts have been on topic yet you are the one resorting to personal attacks like usual when you can't hold an argument. If you don't like my content you know what you can do.

They're not personal attacks; you actually do have a personality disorder and should get help. And it has nothing to do with me.

First post back, a zero content wager, and a negative shot at the bears. And I don't think you know what an echo chamber is:
Another zero content post:
Another zero content post, a cowardly backflip and as aspersion:
Another zero content post and aspersions thrown on other posters who actually provide useful analysis
Another zero content post and a passive aggressive attack on me:
Another zero content post and a passive aggressive attack:
Total delusion:
This is all in one day in one thread with one content post interspersed.

You have a personality disorder and zero self awareness.

Since I don't wish to associate with personality disordered losers as yourself, and you're going back on your pledge to stay away which is the only reason I started posting trades again, I shall be gone from the forums again until you haven't posted for week. If you keep replying to me after that I shall leave for good until you're banned. Too bad for people missing out on trades like TLRY, I was willing to start posting nice setups again with you gone. If the mods won't moderate weird stalkers tarding up multiple threads who multiple posters are calling out, there's no point in me posting.

Go to a moderator then buddy, it's a pretty simple fix if you think I'm breaking the rules. "Report post"... Don't really care about what you were going to do or not do, I'll challenge your or anyone else's viewpoint as long as I'm allowed to do so. End of discussion.

Yoh deserve one anoher. Anyway, 360 coming to go all in puts unless the earnings change the narrative

ASAP17,

As a neutral lurker -- but one whos also had stalkers follow me from posting -- just stop tarding it up with personal attacks. Toothsayer actually posts good content* and I (I won't speak for anyone else) enjoy reading his content & analysis.

If you want to post bull analysis or actual discussion/rebuttal do so and move the discussion forward, if you don't, then FFS just don't post. It's really that simple, and I hope you realize this part here applies to everyone.

It really just comes down to deciding whether you want to be a net negative or net positive poster here and it's obvious to any 3rd party you have a lot of toxicity/negativity oozing through your posts -- at least in the TSLA thread. Instead of being defensive about it, consider some reflection on this and I sincerely hope you change course here. I'm sure you have lots of legitimate insight to offer, but attacking/going after a single poster isn't one that is worthwhile and makes the content/engagement worse for everyone else as well. It becomes lose/lose across the board. Anyway, I hope you take this message the way it was meant, and that is merely as constructive criticism and not as me trying to play sheriff.


*I realize you may not think so, but understand other people have alternate viewpoints than yourself.

I didn't even respond to TS, he responded to me after I posted in here so not sure wtf you are talking about plus its pretty obvious who was actually using personal attacks lol. I'm not even a bull or bear, I just think these short term predictions of bankruptcy are always naive and wrong so might as well call out another one.

For the record I was just going to basically ignore you but I did find your prop bet responses to my posts to be of the lowest of the low content. So maybe TS did jump on you due to your history- but he had a point.

So you're pointing out a 73:1 longshot of bankruptcy by April is going to be wrong? The market has priced it at 1.3% -- of course that bet will be marked as a "loss" more times than not. But for all we know, the real % might be 2-6% or something, in which case it's actually a worthwhile discussion to be had. I enjoy the discussion & enjoy hearing both the bull & bankruptcy cases.

Maybe I am biased here, but what is naive or wrong about that? Am I missing something here?

What does this have to do with anything you just wrote in the previous post about me supposedly attacking TS and having a bull view point (which I obviously don't despite the inference)? I didn't bring up those puts, TS did in a response to me asking if MrFeelNothin would be interested in booking a side bet on his prediction. If you believe it's going to happen, then sure take a shot. I'm not arguing whether it's a good bet if that is your thesis, I'm just saying that every time someone has made that prediction in here it's been wrong and a money loser. Full stop, every single TSLA bankruptcy prediction has been wrong.

there weren't even that many predictions with a clear timeline. that basically started last year with their dwindling cash position, the february convertibles coming due and them not raising capital (and other signs they might have a cash problem).

before that the calls were always pretty vague: they would never grow into their valuation without massive dilution or problems to grow market share if and when sizeable competition (basically the 3 premium german carmakers) enter the market.

if they raise we are back to those bear cases.

Developing thesis:

• Tesla Inc has a Market Cap of 57.40B
  
• Apple now has $243.7 billion in cash on hand.
  
• The Apple electric car project, codenamed "Titan," is an electric car project undergoing research and development by Apple Inc. Apple still has yet to openly discuss any of its self-driving research, with around 5,000 employees disclosed on the project as of 2018.
• Planned completion date: 2020
  
• Buffett

why buy TSLA for (maybe) $70b when you can just finish the car you are working on and build one or two factories for 10-20b?

Does a capital raise mean instant or unavoidable bankruptcy? So many "ifs" in the bear case that its hard to keep them all straight over the years.

Read his post again. Boo is saying that "if" they raise then they are out of the cash crunch and the bear thesis backs off predicting imminent bankruptcy and returns to the idea of the valuation being way out of whack for a marginally profitable car company.

One does wonder why they didn't raise on the back of the Q3 "success" as Tesla surely know as well as we do the numbers aren't getting any better any time soon.

Or on the groundbreaking of the Potemkin Gigafactory.

Or on the Boring Tunnel reveal.

Or on the fake SpaceX starship (although that one was designed to distract from layoffs.)

At this point any investors are going to want to see not only Q4/2018 FY earnings but also delivery numbers for January and February.

the whole near term bear case was based on stuff they did last year (pushing out their payment targets, demanding refunds from their suppliers, cutting capex, not registering cars on time, getting sued for not paying, there's more but i think you get the point) while at the same time not raising new capital (because maybe they couldn't).

obviously that case is dead if they raise $5b tomorrow.

but it was a valid case. especially if you got 73:1 payout. the ceo is on the record saying they were in real trouble last year.

i don't get your point here at all. are you looking for an exact date and time of day when they will send in their chapter 7 or chapter 11?

Tell me again how the competition really respects Tesla?

https://advancedmanufacturing.org/to...lks-elon-musk/

Show me how bad things are that the institutional base dumps their equity/bond holdings based on even your worst case scenario, that this quarter will be the breaking point despite a lot of swings over the past couple years and more attention than almost any other stock/company in history. Don't use anecdotal evidence about him working on different projects as the support... Haven't convinced me of anything other than it's your gut opinion lol.

are we sure those institutions are smart money? do they even care?
for t rowe price tsla is 0,4% of their holdings, for fidellity it's even less.
it's not even their own money.

Funny that I was put on ignore or proclaimed that was your plan yet you are still here engaging with me, guess it's not all zero level content or you are totally wasting both our time lol.

I can post articles too! Plus the point is the total focus of the auto show was all the mass market plans for EVs, who is to thank or responsible for that threat? Hmmmmmmmm, I wonder.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-N...Auto-Show.html

That wasn't the question, the question was in MrFeelNothin's worst case scenario how or what is going to be the breaking point on the bulls so that it even matters? Not judging whether the current base is smart money or not, they still have a pretty big say on how the stock reacts however.

As I stated my (longshot) grand finale prediction is based simply on demand falling off the cliff due to: 1. reservation list & fanboy demand exhausted; 2. U.S. tax credit halved; 3. horrible service and repair issues deterring potential new customers.

We are only 15 days into the quarter but all of the anecdotal evidence available indicates deliveries are down 80-90%+ thus far.

I expect that to pick back up again at some point but my crash and burn scenario is : 1. US M3 deliveries <30k; 2. M3 not ready to sell in EU by EOQ; and 3. S/X deliveries falling 10-20% globally.

That could lead to a $1bn+ loss for the quarter which would be game over for a company struggling to keep the lights on. If they still haven't raised.

Never said anything about putting you on ignore. You seem to struggle with reading comprehension.

Not sure how the threat of increasing competition is a good thing for Tesla but yes I agree that the market will look a lot different next year and five years from now. Not part of my imminent collapse thesis but certainly calls into question the current valuation.