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TSLA showing cracks? TSLA showing cracks?

01-09-2019 , 10:50 PM
well, that's nice. board members certainly have great confidence:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/d...3/edgardoc.xml
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01-09-2019 , 11:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BooLoo
well, that's nice. board members certainly have great confidence:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/d...3/edgardoc.xml
Are you seeing some kind of trend or is the sale of half a million bucks in shares by itself somehow meaningful to you?
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01-10-2019 , 12:03 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BooLoo
well, that's nice. board members certainly have great confidence:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/d...3/edgardoc.xml
this just seems like the weirdest thing to me. Options out two years are like $100 and she exercised for $2
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01-10-2019 , 12:10 AM
it's an automated plan she set up in november that exercises her options and sells the stock. she sits on the board and doesn't own a single share (about 12.000 more of those options though).
the jan2021 320 calls trade around $100, her options expire in 2024. she basically decided her trading plan should sell them for $2.

either she doesn't want do own them or atleast one person one the board of directors is not very bright.
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01-10-2019 , 12:20 AM
Does she def have to pay the exercise price? I'm. Not familiar with these filings for employee stock options
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01-10-2019 , 04:27 AM
Supercharger situation in California looks dire (see comments). People lining up like they're giving away free gas.

They probably should have thought about the consequences of giving free supercharging to new buyers right when sales peaked. Now they either have to build more charging stations that will be overkill in 3-6 months or royally piss off customers until then.

https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors..._plug_in_last/
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01-10-2019 , 04:34 AM
Also interesting that most stations with long lines are showing 1 of x chargers available (whenever someone leaves one until a new car comes in). You'd think they'd be able to detect the number of cars queued up and the expected wait time (they can). But they'd rather not provide that information cuz we wouldn't want the screenshots etc. getting out on the internet...
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01-10-2019 , 05:48 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by stinkypete
Does she def have to pay the exercise price? I'm. Not familiar with these filings for employee stock options
The internet appears to have confirmed that yes, that exercise is exactly as moronic as it seems. Someone "qualified" must have advised her when she got on that 10b5-1 plan so it really is bizarre.
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01-10-2019 , 06:12 AM
**** like that happens when you got lawyers that can’t navigate Excel writing up 10b5-1 plans.

Chances are it was something simplistic “exercise and sell if S >X”.
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01-10-2019 , 06:45 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by grizy
Chances are it was something simplistic “exercise and sell if S >X”.
That's the only possible explanation. It literally means there's someone involved who deals with options for millions of dollars in a professional capacity who doesn't understand the most basic principles.
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01-10-2019 , 11:33 AM
is it really that hard to fill out forms?

Quote:
Tesla, the automotive and energy company led by billionaire Elon Musk, is barred from doing business with Atlantic City casinos for the next five years. That’s according to the New Jersey Division of Gaming Enforcement (DGE), which stated recently that the company is not an approved vendor and gaming resorts therefore cannot conduct business with the electric car manufacturer.

The state gaming regulator said Tesla had not done business with any Atlantic City casinos within the past year, but there are several charging stations located between the Golden Nugget and Borgata in the city’s Marina District.
Division of Gaming Enforcement David Rebuck after requesting Tesla complete the appropriate forms to become a licensed vendor went uncompleted:

Quote:
"When you (Tesla) were contacted again, you claimed the division was harassing you, insisting that you not be contacted again."
also noted in the article: Larry Ellison has a $1 billion stake in Tesla and is on the board. he owns a run down casino with a historic past bought in bankruptcy and plans to renovate it

also noted sth about tax credits TSLA received for their LV gigafactory and credits being sold to casinos in the past i'm guessing that's old news from years ago they just added to show links between Musk and Vegas
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01-10-2019 , 03:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by stinkypete
Any large capital raise is a huge hit to low strike (bankruptcy) puts. That's why I haven't touched them... I don't at all understand all the possible obstacles to raising capital via equity or convertible bonds.

If they do have the possibility to raise money via an equity/convert issue (I don't personally understand why they couldn't, others say they can't and would have already if they could) the bankruptcy bet is a terrible one.

If the plan all along has been to pump the stock until March bonds convert @360+ and then announce a new equity/convert issue, any bankruptcy puts before 2021sh are worthless if they can get past that hump.

In any case, significant dilution or bankruptcy seems inevitable... Dilution seems like the safer bet

Another part of the ev of crash puts is that they cannot raise equity quickly enough, since they no longer have an effective reg statement. Their cash conversion cycle is accretive to cash/cf as long as sales are increasing, but if, for example, they hit an unforeseen “air pocket” in demand and sales fell off, the cycle would turn against them as AP comes due and could quickly cause liquidity problems (which could itself spook suppliers, amplifying the problem). Of course, the fact this type of risk exists makes it all the more puzzling that they don’t have a reg statement effective.
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01-10-2019 , 05:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by stinkypete
That's the only possible explanation. It literally means there's someone involved who deals with options for millions of dollars in a professional capacity who doesn't understand the most basic principles.
This is why law firms are starting to hire their own bankers and Excel monkeys.
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01-10-2019 , 05:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by grizy
This is why law firms are starting to hire their own bankers and Excel monkeys.

It’s not plausible that whoever was advising her did not understand that there is a time value component to options...
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01-10-2019 , 06:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jvds
It’s not plausible that whoever was advising her did not understand that there is a time value component to options...
It's plausible they were unable to explain it to her tho... which = incompetence
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01-10-2019 , 07:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by grizy
This is why law firms are starting to hire their own bankers and Excel monkeys.
Hey now, let’s not insult excel

It’s funny that you say that because the funds flow schedule on liquidity events usually falls on the lawyers ime. Talking millions and sometime billions of dollars being allocated across many different parties so it’s a pretty significant thing. I like to review them too because well; everyone wants to see it and it’s not uncommon for their to be relatively large unintentional errors because someone is just learning how to use excel and tries to use direct links or something instead of index match or whatever is appropriate. Really amazing.

Last edited by syndr0me; 01-10-2019 at 07:36 PM.
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01-10-2019 , 07:53 PM
You'd be absolutely shocked at the kind of spreadsheets I had to look over (in law firm) that were never cleaned up before ludicrous amounts of money got committed.

I've even seen cap tables of dubious quality and documentation (I literally had to write a memo telling a client we were NOT given articles of incorp and couldn't find it for an supposedly Delaware corp.) at best that just somehow were accepted. There really are hot shot entrepreneurs that funds are scared to miss out on and will sign with virtually no due diligence then negotiate the details after the contracts are already signed.

I heard something similar happens a lot in the entertainment space where it's practically industry practice to have semi-intentionally vague contracts that parties can negotiate over post signing.
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01-10-2019 , 08:07 PM
They should be in the 'air pocket' right now. 90% drop based on long term tracker participation rates, correlated with on ground observations of next-to-no sales. This is what happened when subsidies left other markets. At some point here they will be back into run-rate demand but who knows how much time they have.
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01-11-2019 , 09:40 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by grizy
You'd be absolutely shocked at the kind of spreadsheets I had to look over (in law firm) that were never cleaned up before ludicrous amounts of money got committed.

I've even seen cap tables of dubious quality and documentation (I literally had to write a memo telling a client we were NOT given articles of incorp and couldn't find it for an supposedly Delaware corp.) at best that just somehow were accepted. There really are hot shot entrepreneurs that funds are scared to miss out on and will sign with virtually no due diligence then negotiate the details after the contracts are already signed.

I heard something similar happens a lot in the entertainment space where it's practically industry practice to have semi-intentionally vague contracts that parties can negotiate over post signing.
Agreed , have definitely tried to rebuild cap tables and make board resolutions to allow issuing of shares or any rights with significantly backdated grant dates because no records were kept and you sift through emails trying to piece stuff together. Pretty shocking really.
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01-11-2019 , 03:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by stinkypete
Optimally
Are you covering around 300 and reloading around 360 or are just emotionally obsessed?
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01-11-2019 , 03:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by chytry
Are you covering around 300 and reloading around 360 or are just emotionally obsessed?
Yeah the best way to trade this stock is to go back in time and buy the bottom and sell the top
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01-11-2019 , 06:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by syndr0me
Agreed , have definitely tried to rebuild cap tables and make board resolutions to allow issuing of shares or any rights with significantly backdated grant dates because no records were kept and you sift through emails trying to piece stuff together. Pretty shocking really.
My favorites are cap tables with no formulas and rounded percentages that were obviously hand calculated and add up to something distinctly different from 100.
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01-14-2019 , 07:44 PM
I get this feeling the house of cards that is Tesla is about to collapse.

So I am calling my shot. Grand finale. By end of Q1 2019 Tesla declares bankruptcy and/or Elon is completely out.

(feel free to endlessly mock me if this thread goes on for another 5+ years.)
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01-14-2019 , 08:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MrFeelNothin
I get this feeling the house of cards that is Tesla is about to collapse.

So I am calling my shot. Grand finale. By end of Q1 2019 Tesla declares bankruptcy and/or Elon is completely out.

(feel free to endlessly mock me if this thread goes on for another 5+ years.)
Care to elaborate on the "feeling" MrFeelNothin?
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01-14-2019 , 09:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by stinkypete
Care to elaborate on the "feeling" MrFeelNothin?
Without getting into elaborate theories about shenanigans the simple case is that they aren't selling any cars.
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