Quote:
Originally Posted by stinkypete
Any large capital raise is a huge hit to low strike (bankruptcy) puts. That's why I haven't touched them... I don't at all understand all the possible obstacles to raising capital via equity or convertible bonds.
If they do have the possibility to raise money via an equity/convert issue (I don't personally understand why they couldn't, others say they can't and would have already if they could) the bankruptcy bet is a terrible one.
If the plan all along has been to pump the stock until March bonds convert @360+ and then announce a new equity/convert issue, any bankruptcy puts before 2021sh are worthless if they can get past that hump.
In any case, significant dilution or bankruptcy seems inevitable... Dilution seems like the safer bet
Another part of the ev of crash puts is that they cannot raise equity quickly enough, since they no longer have an effective reg statement. Their cash conversion cycle is accretive to cash/cf as long as sales are increasing, but if, for example, they hit an unforeseen “air pocket” in demand and sales fell off, the cycle would turn against them as AP comes due and could quickly cause liquidity problems (which could itself spook suppliers, amplifying the problem). Of course, the fact this type of risk exists makes it all the more puzzling that they don’t have a reg statement effective.