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TSLA showing cracks? TSLA showing cracks?

01-01-2019 , 03:16 PM
Just a little casual tax fraud nbd
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
01-01-2019 , 09:16 PM
Thoughts on Jan 21 puts @$200 for $36.50?

We are expecting a Q4 earnings pump/fraud right? (~Feb 6 2019).
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01-02-2019 , 10:08 AM
Tesla produces and delivers less vehicles than expected in 4Q:
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/31/tesl...y-numbers.html

4Q produced more vehicles than 3Q.

Cutting prices to offset loss of tax credit.
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01-02-2019 , 11:47 AM
Seems like today reinforces the Tesla trading template: It doesn't matter how clear or obvious something is, until it happens in ultra black and white the stock isn't going to reflect reality. MS prediction of BK on the same day it could be trading at triple digits comes from here I guess.
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01-02-2019 , 12:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JKC
Cutting prices to offset loss of tax credit.
They make it sound so philanthropic. If there was the demand they say there is they could raise prices. But, they're changing the world and all that.
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01-02-2019 , 12:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by stinkypete
Just a little casual tax fraud nbd
Guy deleted account within an hour, he had 7k followers and 12k tweets or something like that
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01-02-2019 , 03:37 PM
If you're gonna lie, lie big. Lie in a way that it's so outrageous that people believe you because no one would say something so obviously false if it wasn't true somehow:

Quote:
Elon saying discounts will have no impact on $tsla cash position or ability to make its profit targets according to sources.
This was good for a 1.5% rip in Tesla in a few minutes. It goes exactly like this in a fanboy's brain:

0.25s: That doesn't sound quite right
0.75s: Elon though, I love him, people I love don't lie to me. Plus he's a genius
1.5s: He lands rockets
2.0s: Tweet is obviously true, this is really bullish! Buy!
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01-02-2019 , 03:53 PM
This is also a guy who has openly stated that his projections are horse**** and that he never actually expects to hit them
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01-02-2019 , 08:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JKC
Tesla produces and delivers less vehicles than expected in 4Q.
Yeah but TSLA actually beat Galileo's Model 3 projections.

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01-02-2019 , 09:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dream Crusher
Yeah but TSLA actually beat Galileo's Model 3 projections.

Comments in that video. Echo Chamber.
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01-03-2019 , 10:41 AM
Didn't shorts predict a big miss though?
Now let's see if they made money.
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01-03-2019 , 02:43 PM
I made a little money off the short.
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01-03-2019 , 04:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by chytry
Didn't shorts predict a big miss though?
Now let's see if they made money.
The short thesis was never that a fraudulent/insolvent company has a $50B market cap price target
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01-04-2019 , 03:24 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by stinkypete
The short thesis was never that a fraudulent/insolvent company has a $50B market cap price target
how short are you?
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01-04-2019 , 03:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChipRick
how short are you?
Optimally
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01-04-2019 , 07:28 PM
TSLA crushing

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01-05-2019 , 02:59 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
And just for a bit of historical perspective on how Musk is a clown, here's a Forbes article (Why the Telsa Model X is a Home Run) from 2012. Here are the claims of Musk (via Tesla's PR) at the time. Keep in mind, this was February 2012:




Over two years behind their own claimed schedule on Model X, 3 years behind schedule on Model 3 reveal (which has yet to happen). This is a huge fail, and other car companies will now eat their lunch as battery tech has caught up and surpassed Tesla.

How does someone fail so badly? Musk is either:

- A ****** at predicting the future of something he 100% controls
- A liar and fraud
- Some combination of the two

Does anyone really think he's going to meet his late 2017 mass production target for the Model 3 - less than 2 years? That it's going to be $35,000? Sales rapidly drop off over this price point, and the current in-production Model X is selling for $116,000. Meanwhile, the 87 mile range Nissan Leaf is available right now - in 2016 - for $29,000 before various credits. Does anyone think that in three years time when Tesla finally gets out a Model 3 into production for $40 or $50K, they won't be crushed by similar range, similar performance, cheaper cars from the established makers who leverage $100 billion+ of capital and economies of scale across models?

Meanwhile, on another competitive front to the pure electric, more and more hybrids with small cheap gasoline engines for the highways, having electric performance for around town, and 100+ mile pure electric range will crush Tesla on price and range while being electric nearly 100% of the time, meaning the experience of an under $30K car is near identical to the Model 3, but with zero range or reliability problems (you get electric 100% of the time in the city, all the savings and benefits, yet don't need to stop at a charging station for half an hour to recharge on long trips and never feel range anxiety). Porsche Mission E and others has gone into development as well, which will crush the Tesla high end.

Tesla is ****ed. They've taken too long. Anyone who thinks Tesla is a good investment at this price is crazy, frankly.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
TSLA sold down quite a bit today on the viewings of the Bolt at the auto show.

As I've said, nearly all of the things that TSLA fans go "ooooh aaaah" about is the pure electric drive with performance. Bolt is giving a first taste of that outside of Tesla and there'll be far more and far better. On nearly everything else TSLA is highly inferior at the same price point. People seem not to comprehend this.

Performance electric drives will be standard on electrics and hybrids by by 2019, and performance electric drive + 150 mile range + small gasoline engine you only ever use on long trips (thus being highly superior to TSLA's range anxiety) is going to crush what Tesla is offering on price and features. They will be incapable of competing at the low end. They don't have the capital, the synergy, the networks (supplier and retails), the large scale know how. It's easy to make a small number of desirable rich person cars when you're charging $80K while blowing billions and getting $10K in subsidies and tax break. Mass producing a desirable quality consumer car for under $35K is like an entirely different business.

And they're several years too slow. The automakers, who actually know what they're doing and are incredibly good at it, are going to make short work of Tesla. The Bolt and Leaf are the first taste of what's going to flood the market by the time Tesla finally has their Model 3 out in 2018 or later.

People will look back and be amazed at how well Musk and his gushing fanboys like Vance have pulled the wool over smart people's eyes.


Those Tooth posts are from 2016. I know it's pretty lame to quote posts that are 2+ years old, but I think it is informative to see how much the expectations have changed. In 2016 it was a reasonable opinion that other car companies would have long range EVs that would either compete with or crush the model 3 in 2018. The numbers clearly show what actually happened.

I guess my question is what happened to the others? Why doesn't the bolt sell more cars? Where is the increased range on the Leaf? I heard it was coming soon but not sure when. My opinion is that the supercharger network is a big part of it but I know we have discussed this in the past and others disagree. Also I think that Tesla is actually trying to sell electric cars, while other companies are just putting cars out there to look like they are doing something while actually hoping electric fails so they can get another decade or two of massive profits from their ICE vehicles.
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01-05-2019 , 03:12 AM
It's pretty amazing how many Model 3s TSLA sold in December. It was the 12th best selling vehicle overall in the US and the 5th best selling car. The next highest luxury car was the Mercedes C-Class which was 18th, selling 6,799 vehicles vs 25,250 Model 3s. The Model 3 was just 200 units behind the Toyota Corolla.

It will be interesting to see how the Model 3 does in these next few months with the tax credit cut in half.

Last edited by Dream Crusher; 01-05-2019 at 03:25 AM. Reason: cut in half, not eliminated
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01-05-2019 , 03:22 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by WorldBoFree
I own the Audi Etron currently. Its a good car, but the pure EV driving is about 20 miles per charge, but takes the same time to charge as a Tesla. Its basically a hybrid car. I like it though, but was hoping for more improvements in the pure EV side of things.



I leased the Audi two years ago, hoping that once the lease was up, there would be better options. I'm just not seeing it.



The Jaguar starts at $70,000. But its more like an $80K car. For 230 miles per charge, that nots an innovation. Rather buy a Tesla. The Porche is a 100K car.



The Volvo XC60 is basically the same as the Etron, but most likely gets even less on a pure EV mode.....so they're a few years behind Audi.



The Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV looks kind of cool? it gets 30 mils on pure EV, and apparently the gas engine can charge the batteries. (so you can create a lot of emissions to drive emission free???)



So, Tesla is by far making the best car right now, even at a higher price in my opinion, because it truly is a luxury state of the art car. No one seems close yet.


I think you’re talking about the wrong Audi. Don’t really follow why the jag is DQed after the 7500 credit. The Porsche is def not 100k, I think you should take a look...
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01-05-2019 , 07:07 AM
Ironically, with the government (SEC) shutdown, Tesla can’t raise capital.
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01-09-2019 , 08:56 AM
This China nonsense makes me think a raise is coming after the 10k drops, which I think hurts long dated puts
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01-09-2019 , 03:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by syndr0me
This China nonsense makes me think a raise is coming after the 10k drops, which I think hurts long dated puts
Any large capital raise is a huge hit to low strike (bankruptcy) puts. That's why I haven't touched them... I don't at all understand all the possible obstacles to raising capital via equity or convertible bonds.

If they do have the possibility to raise money via an equity/convert issue (I don't personally understand why they couldn't, others say they can't and would have already if they could) the bankruptcy bet is a terrible one.

If the plan all along has been to pump the stock until March bonds convert @360+ and then announce a new equity/convert issue, any bankruptcy puts before 2021sh are worthless if they can get past that hump.

In any case, significant dilution or bankruptcy seems inevitable... Dilution seems like the safer bet
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01-09-2019 , 07:18 PM
You can't now just switch to dilution instead of TSLA going to 0, are you on crack? Just admit that you've been wrong.
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01-09-2019 , 07:40 PM
just go back in the thread a year or two. significant shareholder dilution was always a possibility of the bear case - if not the main case. it just hasn't been talked about the last year because elon was too stupid or whatever to raise capital.

even without a cap raise there's a lot of dilution. stockbased compensation went up by over 80% in q3 compared to 2017. that's without any meaningful increase in stockprice for the quarter.
it's one of the ways they are keeping the company running.

Last edited by BooLoo; 01-09-2019 at 07:56 PM.
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01-09-2019 , 08:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spurious
You can't now just switch to dilution instead of TSLA going to 0, are you on crack? Just admit that you've been wrong.
All signs suggest I've been right all along
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