https://twitter.com/novogratz/status...78623098789893
Elon musk wins

So, whats in the future plans for Tesla? Whats the next car they have planned?

Will it take another 3 years for them to put out another car?

Whats the impact of the federal tax credit running out on December 31st?


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Massive. Everyone (in the US) that wants and can afford a model 3 will have purchased it by the end of this year. Hardly anyone is going to be willing to pay an extra $3750 knowing they missed out on the subsidy. Keep in mind, demand appears to be cratering even before the end of the subsidy. They are ****ed unless worldwide sales are incredible.

The credit 7500 fed and 2500 more where I live.

Are you saying its not a straight deduction? Or that only a percentage of it actually gets deducted on your tax return?


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It was a $7500 credit (not deduction) and is going down to $3750. A tesla will cost $3750 more on Jan 1 than Dec 31.

Not only that but it really hurts lease payments. $100 a month more for a Tesla now.

The 420k was never a bell curve of price demand, my guess is it was an extreme lump at 35k (-7500).

-Demand is far higher at lower prices, especially in the real world sensitive area of <40k

- 'Stretch' customers magnify this effect greatly


Ultimately the Tesla orderbook is the company, and that book was a bunch of everyday people who simply can't afford what they actually cost. Tesla can scam and cheat and pump and lie, everything but make people buy the cars. These are the two opposing forces being worked out.

They have no demand outs:

-No capex for new products

-Tax credits continue to expire

-New competition coming online

-No margin room to cut prices

This is why Elon is going crazy and can't help but hint at the terrible personal pain to come.

Thanks stinkypete.

Even though I totally agree with the short side of this, the thing that constantly nags at me, is that there just doesnt seem to be another electric car on the horizon, that will even come close to being as good as a Tesla in the luxury space.

My lease is up next spring, and I keep looking for something as good as a Tesla, thats coming out soon, and I just dont see it.


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That's the only thing Tesla has going for them right now that might maybe keep them afloat for a bit, but there will be better cars rolling out over the next few years *with* the $7500 credit and Tesla's cars will be old news.

Do they not have other cars in the pipeline?


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Yes and no. The Model Y and Roadster supposedly are, but they're definitely not going to be on schedule (cuz it's lol Tesla) and bankruptcy is looming. They have no money to spend, so unless the Model Y is just a Model 3 with a different shell (which apparently kind of is the plan?) there's essentially nothing.

Have you looked at jag ipace, Audi etron and/or Porsche taycan? If you have, would be curious what you thought was much better abt Tesla

How is the decreased demand due to subsidy changes not priced in?

there's about 100 things that aren't priced in. people are dumb as ****, especially when it comes to a cult stock like tesla. if everything was priced in this would be a $50 stock.

Demand fall-off #s could be amazing. Tesla will try to obscure as much as possible, however, they can't dodge the spreadsheet and twitter shorts on the ground. The crowd-sourced-fraud-unraveling has always been the most interesting part of this trade.

$50 too high imo

But I thought not that much of their investors are retail? Institutions in on the cult?

What if the cult members never sell? Is bankruptcy the only thing that will drop it at that point?

I own the Audi Etron currently. Its a good car, but the pure EV driving is about 20 miles per charge, but takes the same time to charge as a Tesla. Its basically a hybrid car. I like it though, but was hoping for more improvements in the pure EV side of things.

I leased the Audi two years ago, hoping that once the lease was up, there would be better options. I'm just not seeing it.

The Jaguar starts at $70,000. But its more like an $80K car. For 230 miles per charge, that nots an innovation. Rather buy a Tesla. The Porche is a 100K car.

The Volvo XC60 is basically the same as the Etron, but most likely gets even less on a pure EV mode.....so they're a few years behind Audi.

The Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV looks kind of cool? it gets 30 mils on pure EV, and apparently the gas engine can charge the batteries. (so you can create a lot of emissions to drive emission free???)

So, Tesla is by far making the best car right now, even at a higher price in my opinion, because it truly is a luxury state of the art car. No one seems close yet.

Looks like TSLA +6.89% on the year vs S&P -6.24% & Nasdaq -3.88%, Russell 2000 -12.18%. Not too bad for a company that is going bankrupt and the hilarious thing is shorts that weren't able to let go of their obsession with Elon likely missed out some of the best alpha shorting in 10 years. Can't wait to see how this plays out into next year and beyond...

Looks like Enron was +87% on the year vs s&p -10%

Betfair is saying Musk will be out as CEO next year. Though it's from early November.

Our women are only 20% to win the World Cup? I DARE someone to offer me +400 on that.

So at the end of last quarter it seemed like there were a lot of discussions about possible sales numbers and revenues. This quarter things have been quiet. When do they announce 4th quarter numbers? Anything specific to look for? Any big predictions about something that would drive a big move up or down?

obviously a huge beat or huge miss would move the stock.

but i have a feeling the numbers are gonna be just a bit better than what they thought they would be.
just like china gdp growth is always exactly what china thought it would be - if you know what i'm saying.

in other news:



but i guess it's nothing, right?

How long until they can't play that game anymore?