Incentives vary by state. However, there is a maximum $7.5k tax Federal tax credit. State incentives would be in addition to the Federal credit.

e.g. Until recently Georgia had a $5k state tax credit. iirc Nissan applied the Federal incentive to the purchase price and offered a lease @ 199/month for 36 months. The state credit covered the first 25 months, meaning for $1800 you could drive a Nissan Leaf for 3 years. This doesn't factor in gas savings. Not surprisingly Georgia became the largest selling state for Leaf's.

I think you are taking him out of context here. It was a Danish TV interview and they were talking about record distance on a single charge, by driving slow to maximize distance.
6:20 mark in the video

TSLA sold down quite a bit today on the viewings of the Bolt at the auto show.

As I've said, nearly all of the things that TSLA fans go "ooooh aaaah" about is the pure electric drive with performance. Bolt is giving a first taste of that outside of Tesla and there'll be far more and far better. On nearly everything else TSLA is highly inferior at the same price point. People seem not to comprehend this.

Performance electric drives will be standard on electrics and hybrids by by 2019, and performance electric drive + 150 mile range + small gasoline engine you only ever use on long trips (thus being highly superior to TSLA's range anxiety) is going to crush what Tesla is offering on price and features. They will be incapable of competing at the low end. They don't have the capital, the synergy, the networks (supplier and retails), the large scale know how. It's easy to make a small number of desirable rich person cars when you're charging $80K while blowing billions and getting $10K in subsidies and tax break. Mass producing a desirable quality consumer car for under $35K is like an entirely different business.

And they're several years too slow. The automakers, who actually know what they're doing and are incredibly good at it, are going to make short work of Tesla. The Bolt and Leaf are the first taste of what's going to flood the market by the time Tesla finally has their Model 3 out in 2018 or later.

People will look back and be amazed at how well Musk and his gushing fanboys like Vance have pulled the wool over smart people's eyes.

Pretty good near term call at the very least.

Down 43% off highs from a few months ago, partly from reality/the upcoming EV competition that everyone downplayed and ridiculed, and partly from Musk's very (very) idiotic design decisions holding up the Model X.

Good time to buy TSLA here at $151 (or cover the short if you had one). It's hard to predict what will happen at this point, especially with the market being volatile, but upside is substantially higher than downside going into earnings and the period after. There are too many things for one of the world's greatest PR talents to pump coming into March.

If earnings turn out bad (reasonable chance), then buying after when it goes to the $120s or so is a no brainer. The upcoming pump cycle through March/April should be impressive and worth 30+% to the long side. I don't recommend it unless you're very comfortable with volatility though.

Long term of course TSLA remains one of the worst buy and holds in the market.

TSLA earnings right now the greatest earnings PR effort I've ever seen. SHOCKER miss, but the way they handled the release kept everyone confused, leaked it slowly, kept volume down so that it didn't tank on volume on the headline number, and put out a shareholder letter with positive tidbits up front which most read. Up 6% from close right now.

Musk is one of the greatest PR geniuses of our generation.

Solid analysis. Obviously, getting close to intermediate term bottom.

I'll say this again like I said it before, the car is terrible. I wouldn't buy one with my worst enemies money. With oil trading at less than 30$ it's an even worse car.

Anyone who followed me into the trade above at $151, close this ****er now for 6% at $161. It could run/short squeeze or it could sell down hard. Impossible to tell, but the numbers are horrible and a profit is a profit. You don't know what tomorrow will bring.

Musk is even more of a PR genius than I gave him credit for. I think Wall Street and Musk will pump this hard on the conference call/short squeeze, but the bottom is a long way down if the market sees these numbers for the disaster they are.

You act like this is a liability rather than a huge asset. Musk has leveraged his cult of personality / PR game into 100's of millions in annual free advertising for Tesla while also allowing Tesla to do billions in capital raises on very favorable terms. If he can pull off another major capital raise later this year on favorable terms after pumping the stock with model 3 reveal, that seems bullish, no? And the continued success of Spacex will only give him more cult of personality power. Of course, a recession could cripple Tesla.

Of course it's an "asset", in the same way the pump team for a worthless penny stock are an "asset". TSLA wouldn't be over $50 without a lot of lies and fraud.

It will approach fundamentals eventually however. Tesla is finished long term. I called that a few months ago and there's nothing to change my mind. They can't compete with the big auto makers and their supply chains on any level. The outside chance that they could be nimble enough has been blown by <100 IQ design decisions from Musk and falling years behind their own stated schedules. The goose is cooked. They're finished. I'm sure we'll see ups and down until that time. We're coming into few good pump months over spring. I don't like the risk/reward right now after the earnings disaster - I don't think the variance is worth the EV until the dust from earnings settles - but there'll be more long opportunities soon enough.

If Musk is telling the truth (lol), a recession should make no difference to Tesla, since he claims they are "supply limited" with ample demand.

In this example though, the penny stock pumpers don't add any value and Musk is a true believer and has promised not to sell any shares for the foreseeable future (he's actually borrowed 100's of millions personally secured by his tsla shares), so he is going down with the ship, if it sinks. Add to this Musk's 100's of million in free advertising and brand building does add value, and raising billions at crazy valuations does add value to Tesla. Personally i think the worst case scenario for Tesla is that they run out of credit and tank, like in the case of a recession and are bought out in the 10-15 billion range by a Apple/Google. Musk's buddy Larry Page was willing to let Musk write his own deal and hand him billions to carry on with his plan back when the model S launch was doing poorly and the stock was tanking. Don't see why Musk couldn't line up another worst case scenario favorable deal again.

I don't see how raising capital at crazy valuations adds value. He's convincing people to fuel his ego trip. Very similar to what a pumper does, except it's not money that he's after.

SCTY dropped $7.72 to $18.63. Their gross profit is 119 MM, their operating expenses are 767 MM, their interest expenses are 92 MM with other expense at 26 MM. Somehow the minority or non-controlling interest is like 90% of the company. Someone explain non-controlling interest to me. Anyways much of the debt is convertible bonds, but they will not likely be convertible. Thus the company is going to have 1000 MM in debt due in 2 years. I don't understand these sheets, but I think they are going chap 11 within 2 years. Balance sheet says they have 878 MM in equity.

Gaap profitable by Q4 2016 means their gross profit should be around 8 to 900 million with a little over 3 billion in sales ----> minus their 400mil CAPX budget means they are making about 4-500 mil Q4 (lease revenues will make their gaap earnings less by 300mil). Forward that out 4 quarters, seems like they have a decent shot at making 1-1.5 billion profit non gaap, pre model 3 ((given the same capx budget) -- but that should go up w/ another gigafactory and/or car factory -- this is a good thing as it seem elon invests his money well and in a good industry)), given that --- seems pretty cheap right now to me under 20 billion market cap ---- and further note, how many bolts is GM really gonna make?? tesla was capacity constrained for batteries not too long ago, and has to make their own factory to produce enough cars for them to sell.... dont think GM is preparing to make 1 million bolts / year, thats what i dont hear anyone talking about --- think we never see tesla below 140 barring global stock crisis

re: Bolt; I read GM is planning something on the order of 20-30k units annually. At any rate I don't see the Bolt being a serious competitor for the Model 3.

The Model X has a waiting list of 20k plus people (I've read as high as 27k but who knows) and it's a 100k SUV that has some pretty quirky attributes imo. The Model S had ~12k reservations when Tesla was a relative unknown and it too is a very high priced vehicle. When the 3 is announced in a month or so I expect we'll see substantially more people willing to put down a deposit on a car that in all likelihood will be in the 40-45k range (well equipped).

The only thing that has me worried about the 3 is Musk has supposedly decreed that the Model 3 must have a drag coefficient of <.2 If Tesla decides to sacrifice form to meet that goal (e.g. put rear wheel covers on the car) then that would be a major blunder imho.

http://www.caranddriver.com/tesla/model-s

I don't know why you say its terrible. That is such an extreme view that is totally out of line with reality. It is literally the equivalent of saying "Empire Strikes Back is horrible", when its widely recognized as one of the greatest films of all time.

I don't understand why you think your limited experience driving around a parking garage trumps every other person on the planet, including professional who review cars for a living.

Somewhat interesting

http://www.caranddriver.com/features...results-page-6

Autonomous driving test

How does this work without 150megapixel camera? Ultrasound sensors for lane change?

Waiting for turletom to report back with his expertise before I can really see if Tesla has best in class deployed SDC technology.

+8.5% today

Stock is still down a ****load, we have to see what the Model 3 prsentation looks like and how the Gigafactory work out.

The product is ahead of competition as the recent posts in here showed.

Decent recovery:

Sell while you can, heltok. There's 30% upside maybe (which you won't capture anyway since you'll hold, believing the thesis validated by nothing but a news driven short squeeze), and >50% downside (100% long term).

Shorting TSLA @206.86. Not sure if I want it to go up or down to be frank.

I don't know what your thesis/time frame is, but I will say: bad time to short IMO. Model 3 and all the hype is happening this month. Who knows what BS they can spin. Model X is ramping up now, which is great for the bull case/an excuse for upgrades/positive press. There's also a very high short%/hard to borrow which is great for squeezes should they have a good showing and then have analysts blow it up. "Short squeeze fundamentals" are strong right now.

If you get a market correction TSLA will go down a nice bit (as it's done today so far), and I think short is +EV long term, but expect pain fairly often if you're shorting at this level. My advice to heltok to sell is more to a guy who's holding long term thinking TSLA is great and getting excited by the rises, which are meaningless.