If you go to tesla.com you'll notice that the Model 3 is now at the top of the page. It used to be at the bottom.

BREAKING NEWS

I find Tesla fascinating because there’s a lot of good raw information in this thread, but also some weird reads and almost certainly missing information.

Like the moving deadline for last minute orders isn’t really surprising. It seems common (especially in car sales) for constant ‘this is your last chance for some amazing deal/incentive’. And sure enough the next week it’s been extended or replaced by another almost exactly equivalent offer.

But it’s also probably a bad sign that they’re legitimately still able to fill orders by the end of the year.

Anyway, I find the bear arguments very compelling but also not great at actual long term predictions (from what I can see). That’s not necessarily surprising though if there is real fraud that just hasn’t been uncovered yet.

Oh for sure. But that's for cars that are demand limited (i.e. more supply than demand).

In this case however, Tesla claims it has 420,000 reservation holders (and claimed it still had that a few months ago even after mass cancellations and 10s of thousands of deliveries). Presumably the large majority would all want to get in on $3750 in tax savings - that's a 10% discount!

How are they not completely backlogged with orders as of two months ago? How is this possible if demand is so strong? Demand certainly isn't going to increase when $3750 of tax credit gets wiped off in two weeks.

The only reason this evidence isn't strong is because Musk is a fraud/scumbag, who keeps customer deposits and payments for months to fund his company (their official policy is now 45 business days for a refund), sometimes requiring 10+ followups to get the money. It's not a bad business model - don't pay suppliers for 2+ months, take customer deposits and full payments and then don't refund, passing the car on to a new payer. And then don't deliver until after the quarter, cancelling appointments, giving excuses. And and also fail to register the car, giving them temp plates over and over again, so you can hold onto sales tax for many months. There are hundreds of people complaining about that which means Tesla is doing it to thousands.

So yeah, all of the above means it's not as strong as it would be if Musk wasn't a fraud. But it's still indicative of weak demand imo. No way a company with 2 months backlog of orders, let alone a year, is actively advertising delivery in 2 weeks. And no way a company with heaps of cash cushion/profitability pulls these tricks. You don't need to, y'know?

Right, but it should be surprising if you think there is a huge backlog of demand, as you’ve noted in the last sentence quoted. The point of making a point of these things is to highlight that logical inconsistency, imo.

So at this point Musk is either doing a consumer fraud cash grab or demand is dead. I have no idea which:

It could still be a dirty cash grab without being fraud in the legal sense. The "guarantee" could just be a money back guarantee (after lol 45 days), ie. worthless. That said, it's hard to imagine they'd do this if they don't think they can deliver at least a large chunk of the cars they sell. Demand is dead seems like a safe bet. Demand completely dead on Jan 1 is an even safer bet.

Or maybe they've finally got production down and know they can crank out a ton of cars by the end of the year

That or they're sorting out logistical issues and actually shipping cars out as they are produced instead of keeping them in parking lots.

I have ZERO doubt Tesla is constantly going back and forth with its auditors pushing the boundaries of GAAP but that's not fraud and doesn't suggest demand is dead.

A lot of the shady business practices just look like a lot more trouble than they are actually worth (holding off on registration?) and are actually more likely the results of bureaucratic incompetence, which is more consistent with Elon's inability to focus on the details.

Selling OTM put spread against this. Smaller size. Still short

The evidence presented here is so ****ing weak it's incredible. While I don't know what they are producing these days, the fact that someone on Twitter ("somewhere east coast" aka bumble**** east, certainly not a wealthy city) suggests that given the fact they have inventory (the easiest config to produce) is a reason why demand is dead is ridiculous.

They could be producing ahead of the worldwide roll out and start producing all those cars that can easily be sold in the US if there is demand. That's why they have every config available and mostly the cheapest one.

The Model 3 is so easy to reconfigure for other countries given his reliance on a single dashboard, they can just ship them to some country in case they are not bought in the US. Of course, they are pushing for people to buy the car ahead of an important deadline.

bro bro bro you don't understand. THEY MOVED IT TO THE TOP OF THE WEBSITE

IT USED TO BE ON THE BOTTOM

Lol at wsj story about musk using spacex funds to fund boring company


Anyone who thinks musk is anything but a conman is a moron.

No, that's not how it works.

Good thread on the current state of $TSLAQ service

But I'm sure it's just shorts spreading FUD again

A short interlude in the bull/bear fight:

lolol

I think Musk is really losing the plot. If the crazy laugh on 60 minutes wasn't a clue, perhaps this is. The Boring Company show was a huge embarrassment, especially for an accomplished conman/carnival barker. Almost as much as when Musk promised "air friction limited alien dreadnought" robotic system then started building cars fully by hand 1980s style in a makeshift tent.

At this stage he might be one the biggest cucks/losers that ever lived (although he's paradoxically also one of the greatest frauds of our generation)
Surely even the bulls must cringe here.

The Boring Company is however a brilliant idea to get more taxpayer funds now that the SolarCity fraud has run its course and EV subsidies and loans are drying up. What better to promise than a big tunnel solving all your transport needs at "10x" cheaper than alternatives like high speed rail? Mayors lap that **** up with down payments, plus they get to have a photo op with Elon. He's like a giant leech with mouthparts designed to paralyze and suck on big government's taxpayer dollars. The genius even used SpaceX funds to get it going, to the horror of his investors.

Hey guys I’m making a mass transit system that requires you to own a luxury car


How does anyone think that makes sense


Also I legit lol at 10m excluding stuff like LABOR

luxuy car? Any EV can use it supposedly.

Plus, Teslas are more common than Fords in southern california. They'll have plenty of willing people.

I can’t really see how he gets any real $ thrown at him for Boring, especially after that event... he won the Chicago project by saying boring would self-fund it. Do you have any cities in mind specifically where you think he can get traction? He also doesn’t have much credibility right now with respect to being able to keep projects on track/schedule, which is sort of important if the plan to win contracts is to underbid + overpromise

The sad thing is he somehow still does have plenty of credibility among a large part of the population. They either have no idea about his track record or choose to ignore it.

I have not been a fan of Musk for a very long time. But as an potential investor, I would place substantial value his ability to hype and promote. That is one the biggest jobs a startup CEO has, and Musk is a master of it.

All of his businesses exist thanks to Washington, DC and that is another question in my mind. Who is lobbying and representing his interests in DC?

Whether some of the hype crosses the line into deception/illegal is an important question. But we know there is a ton of oversight and the only thing he got pinned with (so far) is fairly small stuff, which is to be expected from a hype man/promoter.

Basically, he has managed to turn a few meager enterprises into billions through his persona. Whatever you think of him, you have to give him some credit.

For a long time, I've wondered when his reputation will implode, Elizabeth Holmes style. I think he has a lot skeletons buried and everything will hit the fan when he has one big stumble... but when...

Whatever happened to that Thailand Cave bs?

This is all true, but for municipal transport projects the last thing you want is a hype man who can't deliver.