Unless it's a suicide there's not much point of getting on a spaceship. Musk's Mars bull**** is like his other bull****. No one is going there to live for multiple decades until advanced robotics come along. Like electric cars, nothing Musk does will make a difference to humans ultimately living on Mars. He's just a conman.

Awesome. You need to cross post this in the prop bet thread for maximal butthurt.

TS, i specifically did not say mars because i feel his spaceship is just going into outer space,, probably the same trajectory as the car is in now

What's your reasoning behind this? I've also been surprised how well TSLA has held up in the sell off. I would have expected it to be down more than AMZN etc which is why I sold calls last week, but why do you believe the hedge fund theory is big enough to move the market?

Also today has been way inside the expected move. Even when the market was down a lot and all the way back up. TSLA has barely moved. It's weird.

Because the actual float available is tiny.
20% is owned by Elon, and he cannot sell unless he eats the margin call around $250 or so.
50%-60% are owned by HODLers like Baggy Gifford, Ark Capital, and T Rowe who will ride this thing all the way down to zero.

So you have 20-30% that is available to new longs, short term dealers and day traders. Since the float was 22% short, any short covering yanks up the price, whereas sales do not do much.

We need a capitulation from one of the big holders for the thing to collapse. This is also why that it is possible that they announce bankruptcy while the stock is trading >$300 or even at ATHs.

So the stock won't go down because too many large holders have faith in the company and the long term vision and direction of the company?

My god it's worse than I thought.

Though you mean that sarcastically, the result will indeed be worse than you imagine. Watch what happens when the cult faith gets broken by cold hard reality, like RIOT or MDXG, and there is no bid for them to escape out.

>$300 straight into BK would be one for the record books.

It's like you've never heard of Enron or Valeant. Valeant in particular is a recent example of exactly the above - true believer institutions piling in even as the evidence of fraud piled up - and it had stronger fundamentals and less fraud than Tesla.

Are you seriously comparing the investors of RIOT or MDXG to TSLA Morish? Reaching so hard but nothing new in this bear echo chamber.

At this point and given everything we know now, yes. It is very similar to MDXG and Valeant at this point.

Admittedly, RIOT may be a stretch.

That or the same thing happens to the shorts. But a faithful base of stockholders who aren't super focused on short term thinking, believe in the company's vision and won't easily panic sell is clearly a good thing for any company to have.

So you think there will be selling if QQQ rallies this week? (I think it will)

Bitcoin has that

The problem is that the faithful found out that they were single digit weeks from bankruptcy from electro jesus himself and they didn't flinch. I think betting on bankruptcy is stupid but I have to imagine there will be some violent moves considering valuations, speculation, and risk associated with the stock. Confidence can crater with the companies history and the overall market sentiment. I don't see how this could move up with an extended strong rally without an earning report (from here) but who knows

The bankruptcy news wasn't a new story, surprised no one pointed this out yet... Two weeks old. I have some doubts how close they really were, if I believe Musk can overhype on the upside he could certainly exaggerate the downside.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sour...-cTgGZ&ampcf=1

It was pointed out and discussed
He can certainly hype, but there also seems to be a hero/worship dynamic going on. Electro jesus announced he almost drove off a cliff while they were asleep and they didn't lose faith or get spooked. Any person who is guzzling his hype to the upside should be stunned at how exposed they were and how bad the valuation was. That's not what happened. He says something positive, it rallies. He says something that makes the valuation last month look insane, people brush it off and still have full faith. It just looks weird to me

Do any of you guys (TS, stinky, JV, whoever else wants to comment) see value in any of the other auto stocks if you want to talk about valuation? If TSLA valuation is insane and almost every other auto maker has been beat up, that spread has to narrow correct? Just curious on what your thoughts are on the competition given your bearish viewpoints here.

Auto stocks are dogs because of the vast amount of capital they have to hold/borrow to profitably make millions of cars. $150 billion in capital needs to be deployed for $7 billion/year in profit in good times; they all go under in bad times.

It's a horrible cutthroat industry that's too capital intensive for high valuations. Discounting automakers even further as the end of the an economic cycle approaches makes sense.

That's just my general take. I have absolutely no clue on whether there's value in the current valuations.

The one thing i dont get is why the float turns over so fast.

If you take out musk, fmr, ballie, trowe then the float turns in just over 10 days, seems crazy but im not versed in this area

It's a highly watched and traded stock from both sides. Lots of retail morons in that thin float on both sides. Large option activity. Frequent pumps from Musk/Tesla and frequent important news since little details matter in a company on the edge.

If Musk and Tesla were required to be truthful in their tweets/projections, or were barred from communications, stock would probably trade around $70-$150 on 1/3 of the volume.

I don't care about those stocks but would be bearish just based on the market and economy far more likely turning down than continuing up imo

The reason I pay attention to TSLA is it has high volatility and liquidity. It's traded sideways and within its expected range for a couple years now. As posted earlier, trading short vol here prints money. I just make sure to reduce risk to the downside and get bearish when its approaching the higher end of its range

The other reason is because Musk makes himself a headline. He also moves the stock with his tweets etc. He has a cult following. It's fun. I don't care about the accounting or have some advanced analysis on the stock or other autos. Vol is over stated here so I sell it. Not exactly rocket science

Elon crying on Twitter about how unfair the 60 minutes edit was while ASAP17 is calling it a puff piece. lol.

This the best you can do? Kind of hilarious. At least TS provides content that is semi interesting. It was and is still a puff piece, don't really need Elon whining to change my mind. They didn't ask him tough questions, he's a diva.

I'm sure some of you guys love QTR given he's a TSLA bear with a big following, this clip reinforces how serious Lesley Stahl was about asking Elon the tough questions...

https://twitter.com/QTRResearch/stat...865559042?s=19

Can't embed for some reason sorry.

You still clearly have no idea what a puff piece is

You clearly aren't worth conversing with, thanks for the reminder.

I agree with stinkypete. That was clearly not a puff piece. Puff piece unambiguously makes the subject look good. The show did not do that.