Open Side Menu Go to the Top
Register
TSLA showing cracks? TSLA showing cracks?

12-09-2018 , 10:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by syndr0me
I doubt this has much effect on the stock, maybe a brief early morning drop, now if the SEC takes issues with the comment and clayton miraculously becomes less of a total *****, then maybe it matters
For many this is their first exposure to these issues in depth. It also blows apart the narrative that he just went through a phase and is now ok.

Stuff like this can certainly drop the stock substantially. His NYT interview was a pretty easy 5 bagger. And that wasn't hovering near all time highs with most of the shorts tapped out and having fresh powder (there's been a lot of short covering the last two weeks).

I assume he made calls when the charges hit to make them go away and has Jay Clayton in his pocket. Hard to imagine the comments otherwise assuming he's somewhat sane (a big assumption).
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
12-09-2018 , 10:11 PM
maybe he just wants to get fired?
didn't the board basically force him to stay after the 420 tweet? he knows more about the company than anyone else and he definitely doesn't want to be around when the ship goes down.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
12-09-2018 , 10:57 PM
Why would anyone accept a car cobbled together under a makeshift tent in a parking lot, and that has not gone through any industry standard qa? Garbage cans are assembled with more precision than these cars.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
12-09-2018 , 11:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BooLoo
maybe he just wants to get fired?
Interesting theory. I don't know if he actively wants to get fired, but there was definitely an "I don't give a **** anymore, I just want to give up and cry" vibe to the interview.

I can't imagine how stressful it would be to run an exponentially escalating fraud like this for years, relying on the M3 to be a monumental success to bail him out. The narrative was that they got there, Q3 pushed them over the hump and they're home free now, but his words and his body language conveyed the exact opposite - that he's realized he's ****ed and there's nothing he can do now. They've used up all the accounting tricks they had, they've sold all the high margin M3s they can, the full US tax credit is done in 3 weeks, and warranty repairs are rolling in at an increasing rate. What is there left but to hope and pray?

If he was optimistic there's zero chance that interview would play out like it did. It makes zero sense from a strategic perspective.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
12-09-2018 , 11:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
So over the last few weeks we have the following:

- Elon Musk admitting he was "single digit" weeks away from bankruptcy this year. This is impossible if they can raise, with the stock price around $300. It's also impossible if they have the cash on hand (never less than $2 billion, I believe), that they claimed. Ergo, they could not raise and their numbers are fraudulent.

- Elon Musk right now on 60 minutes says "I want to be clear - I do not respect the SEC. I do not respect them". For him to get so incredibly butthurt and combative as to say that, I'd imagine they must have stung him somehow. The most likely way they could have stung him that badly is via a Wells Notice.

It's pretty clear at this point the bears were spot on. Monthly bankruptcy puts were paying 500:1 or more. The forum clown ASAP17 rubbished people who were buying them (not me, but others), but by Musk's own words they were highly +EV given that only the tent line saved them and lots of things could have gone wrong and you were getting >500:1. It looks like these puts had >1000% in EV, possibly as much as 20,000%.

Spurious was, as usual, also wrong when he thought it ridiculous that they couldn't raise and he attribute the bizarre lack of raise to "Musk nott wanting to dilute his equity". Also a clown. Either they couldn't raise or Elon Musk is a liar when he says they were "single digit weeks away" from bankruptcy. Take your pick. There's no other option.

Most people seem to think the 60 minutes interview was a disaster. Haven't seen all of it myself, just snippets.
You mad bro?
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
12-09-2018 , 11:25 PM
So much anger from someone who's making a killing trading off of Elon, supposedly a compulsive liar.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
12-09-2018 , 11:27 PM
Btw I thought the 60 minutes story was a puff piece, not much of substance but par for the course.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
12-09-2018 , 11:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ASAP17
Btw I thought the 60 minutes story was a puff piece, not much of substance but par for the course.
Is the online clip different from what was aired? What I saw was anything but a puff piece.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
12-09-2018 , 11:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by stinkypete
Is the online clip different from what was aired? What I saw was anything but a puff piece.
I mean what was surprising to you? I didn't hear anything new but maybe I missed something.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
12-09-2018 , 11:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ASAP17
I mean what was surprising to you? I didn't hear anything new but maybe I missed something.
Nothing was surprising to me. It just wasn't a puff piece. If anything, it intentionally made him look bad (though he made it super easy).
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
12-09-2018 , 11:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by stinkypete
Nothing was surprising to me. It just wasn't a puff piece. If anything, it intentionally made him look bad (though he made it super easy).
How did he look worse than what your opinion was before you saw the clip/interview? Need specifics because I mean you obviously have been bearish before so it's not a surprising takeaway right?
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
12-09-2018 , 11:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ASAP17
How did he look worse than what your opinion was before you saw the clip/interview? Need specifics because I mean you obviously have been bearish before so it's not a surprising takeaway right?
I'm not arguing that it did. But a puff piece would (attempt to) make him/tesla look significantly better than previously perceived by the public. 60 minutes didn't do that. They asked him reasonably tough questions. They gave him an opportunity to cry and he took it.

I can't imagine a bull's confidence in Elon/Tesla increasing after watching this piece.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
12-10-2018 , 12:04 AM
just saw it on TV, wow.

there is so much in there that is lolz

he basically says he will **** up in the future and affect the stocks price from posting on twitter because hey we aren't perfect and will make mistakes.

whole thing seemed pretty bizarre to me

gap down
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
12-10-2018 , 12:13 AM
I can't imagine any bull's confidence in Elon/Tesla decreasing after watching this piece. Why is that? You already know the answer. They aren't going anywhere... You see what you want to on both sides of this trade.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
12-10-2018 , 12:18 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ASAP17
I can't imagine any bull's confidence in Elon/Tesla decreasing after watching this piece. Why is that? You already know the answer. They aren't going anywhere... You see what you want to on both sides of this trade.
I don't really disagree but you're missing the point. All I said it is wasn't a puff piece, which it clearly wasn't. Now you're arguing it was neutral. Maybe google the definition of "puff piece" if you're still confused.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
12-10-2018 , 12:23 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by stinkypete
I don't really disagree but you're missing the point. All I said it is wasn't a puff piece, which it clearly wasn't. Now you're arguing it was neutral. Maybe google the definition of "puff piece" if you're still confused.
I know exactly what a puff piece is and it's the same sort of interview Lesley Stahl did with Trump after he was elected. She rarely gets into follow ups so you never get much clarity beyond what the interviewee says. Part of it is the 60 Minutes format but still I could see how the bull side only digs in deeper about the mission and sticking it to anyone who disagrees.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
12-10-2018 , 08:08 AM
Stock green in PM compared to rest of market slightly down, looks like most really viewed that interview as a disaster lmao.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
12-10-2018 , 08:30 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ASAP17
Stock green in PM compared to rest of market slightly down, looks like most really viewed that interview as a disaster lmao.
That's the genius hot take of the day. I guess that's why Musk did his buys premarket - Tesla green on volume of 39K shares premarket (essentially zero) actually means something to losers.

I've singlehandedly put a 2 billion dollar stock up 3.8% premarket as an experiment by buying 100 shares for <$1000. It stayed up for over an hour and even hit the "premarket gappers" list on my news service. Yet the move was caused purely by me.

Reading anything into ultra low volume premarket is for idiots. I think we probably sell down a bit on the interview and end the week on $340 or so ($360 now) but it's not a high probability bet for me, especially with the market down so much already. Not high enough to enter imo.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
12-10-2018 , 08:32 AM
Ok so it will underperform the market today? Since we're already shifting the goal posts then that should be a reasonable conclusion if PM is bs right?
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
12-10-2018 , 08:45 AM
Yeah I think it's fairly likely to sell down. The interview was incrementally negative and widely seen, including by those who don't follow the saga. I asked a few friends who know little about it for their opinions on the video and they think he's not that sane/honest but don't see it as a deal breaker.

Market just turned green from lows pretty quickly so that's a point in the bull's favor.

Like I said it's not a strong enough bet to enter. That has nothing to do with whether ultra low volume premarket is a poor barometer for anything. I think it actually went green after his NYT crying interview a few months ago before selling off 5%.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
12-10-2018 , 08:50 AM
I pity the fool who trades or invests based on what Musk said on a program and interviewer that has little relevance, not to mention the hilarity of thinking it will take days for bulls/bears to price it in/it would have any relevance on a pullback. Continue TS, I look forward to whatever "disaster" you've got cooked up next.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
12-10-2018 , 08:56 AM
Musk crying in the NYT interview was an easy 5 bagger on puts from open. This stuff does indeed move markets. I said to Brian in private chat when the market opened that I wouldn't use that morning's put entry for bet because it's too easy - and it was.

This is far less likely, particularly with the market coming hard off lows just now (and being sold down generally), so it's not the same thing, but the notion that these interviews/news don't move the stock is asinine.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
12-10-2018 , 09:02 AM
They do when they are relevant, a sit down with Lesley Stahl on 60 Minutes isn't one of them. Too bad that NYT trade wasn't in the contest vs Brian, darn it.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
12-10-2018 , 01:10 PM
At the moment, no news other than BK matters and even then I'm not sure.
Elon could have snorted crack in front of Stahl and beat factory workers with a stick in front of the cameras and the currently imploding hedge funds would still be forced to buy to cover because they were all long AAPL or long QQQ in a pair trade.

Like I posted before, until they bugger off nothing matters. Once they bugger off, then it all matters and probably at the same time.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
12-10-2018 , 01:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mori****a System
At the moment, no news other than BK matters and even then I'm not sure.
Elon could have snorted crack in front of Stahl and beat factory workers with a stick in front of the cameras and the currently imploding hedge funds would still be forced to buy to cover because they were all long AAPL or long QQQ in a pair trade.

Like I posted before, until they bugger off nothing matters. Once they bugger off, then it all matters and probably at the same time.
I was telling my gf who is a partial musk fan girl about how this might actually play out with Musk getting on a spaceship and the co going bankrupt within a week and some traders funding TESLA , The musical , and she looked at me like i was crazy,
TSLA showing cracks? Quote

      
m