No. Bond trades in the 105 area. 120 would be impossible (given current options pricing) even with restriking.

Tooth: bangs the short drum on TSLA continuously for years. Posts almost every day in this thread about fraudulent Elon Musk cucking his idiot believers. Attacks anyone who is even temporarily bullish.

Also Tooth:

I was looking at the wrong bonds. 103-5sounds about right.

I still think the market knows (and has known for some time) that a refinancing is coming (they need the money)and there is reasonable probability it will involve paying convertible bond holders off to limit impact on liquidity and because Elon will want to keep his promise of no raise in some form.

Yes, of course the bond market knows tesla is broke and can't make March payments without raising money or restructuring somehow. But the bonds aren't trading at some massive premium because they're expecting crazy elon to give them a giant gift like you implied.

The face value at maturity plus the option value at the current strike (359) is something like 109-110. The bonds are trading around 106. They're actually pricing in some probability they don't get paid in full.

Nasdaq down 4% and Tesla is flat, this is definitely not what i would expect

I have to believe it is short covering. Crash in market is creating a perverse effect in that the hedge funds that were long QQQ short TSLA in a pair trade are forced to cover TSLA and dump QQQ while the market is crashing which is creating this artificial bid. Didn't think they were still around after Trump and Powell killed shorty the past week, but I have to assume they are still there.

If it is some big silent long accumulator, then I will bang my head on a desk until it bleeds and go buy some psychedelics because the world doesn't make sense anymore.

Flight to quality obviously

Just sold Jan 405/425 call spreads for 3.85. If these aren't positive by the new year I will also be a mindblown gif

Tesla looks a great deal like short covering to me. It has for a while. And % of short floated has dropped to the lowest in years, which is a big unwinding from where it was lower.

As I've always said, shorts are almost as dumb as the longs.

Yeah, this isn't even close to true. I've banged the short drum the most, but also the long drum several times, and the not-short drum several times. I mean, my first post in this thread is advising not to short. I sold puts at $260 and told people it was temporarily bullish.

Being a true believer gets you killed. Mainly because you believe the thesis when the price goes your way and load up more. You believe confirmatory evidence. You stretch yourself too far to max the win and then get despondent when it goes the other way and then make mistakes. Look at the losers who thought $420 "funding secured" was real and didn't even consider covering because they were so sure it was real they didn't want to miss out on that last 12% (and actually bought more), then despaired or got margin called at the $260s and finally capitulated. There are hundreds of plaintiffs before the courts right now describing exactly this, suing Musk for fraud.

I'm flexible. Tesla is a dumpster fire of fail and Musk is a fraud and a liar, but I don't advocate anything except short term trades both ways or a long term short with time and room for it to all play out.

Ya i cant think of anything else either, spike in vol too relative to last few weeks

I may as well buy some 400 calls and assume that this is going to all time highs. Hard to guess how many hedge funds are getting blown up right now.

Definitely not to needle you - I recently went short myself @ $350 - but what is your plan at this point?

I would have to assume he is hedged somehow.

In any case, the stock is being artificially propped up by hedge fund redemptions. Once the hedge funds all bugger off then the party begins.

The bond disclosure leaked on twitter

50% stock/bond redemption altho bondholders still have to elect to convert



The change in GC news is semi bullish but the butswinkas guy remaining as partner at his lawfirm seems really odd

Musk on 60 minutes this Sunday. Expect a pump obv.

Is he gonna smoke weed with Leslie Stahl? Market bounce Monday, TSLA is going to 400.

Musk unfollowed 60 minutes, but given he knows his twitter use is monitored he might just be trolling

Latest software update appears to have none of the **** he promised ~6 weeks ago, but I assume the Elon knobgobblers will see this as bullish. 400 on Monday?

So over the last few weeks we have the following:

- Elon Musk admitting he was "single digit" weeks away from bankruptcy this year. This is impossible if they can raise, with the stock price around $300. It's also impossible if they have the cash on hand (never less than $2 billion, I believe), that they claimed. Ergo, they could not raise and their numbers are fraudulent.

- Elon Musk right now on 60 minutes says "I want to be clear - I do not respect the SEC. I do not respect them". For him to get so incredibly butthurt and combative as to say that, I'd imagine they must have stung him somehow. The most likely way they could have stung him that badly is via a Wells Notice.

It's pretty clear at this point the bears were spot on. Monthly bankruptcy puts were paying 500:1 or more. The forum clown ASAP17 rubbished people who were buying them (not me, but others), but by Musk's own words they were highly +EV given that only the tent line saved them and lots of things could have gone wrong and you were getting >500:1. It looks like these puts had >1000% in EV, possibly as much as 20,000%.

Spurious was, as usual, also wrong when he thought it ridiculous that they couldn't raise and he attribute the bizarre lack of raise to "Musk nott wanting to dilute his equity". Also a clown. Either they couldn't raise or Elon Musk is a liar when he says they were "single digit weeks away" from bankruptcy. Take your pick. There's no other option.

Most people seem to think the 60 minutes interview was a disaster. Haven't seen all of it myself, just snippets.

The SEC comment starts at 4:20 below. First an insane laugh then saying he "doesn't respect the SEC". Tell me this is a guy who isn't out of his gourd.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/tesla-c...tes-interview/

This 60 minutes interview makes him look a lot worse than I would have expected. The most damning part is probably a more or less direct admission that none of his projections/timelines should be taken seriously. It baffles me that an unprofitable company whose CEO uses the "I'm a moron, not a fraud." defense can be priced at these insane valuations.

and lol @ the self-driving demo where its most advanced feature is cutting someone off while changing lanes

Credit to TS for nailing the daddy issues thing

I doubt this has much effect on the stock, maybe a brief early morning drop, now if the SEC takes issues with the comment and clayton miraculously becomes less of a total *****, then maybe it matters

I think it was still pretty puffy, sans the sec comment there really isnt anything hard hitting and musk volunteered the sec comment for reasons i cant imagine


He definitely doesnt look healthy