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Old 11-09-2018, 07:10 PM   #6251
ToothSayer
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Originally Posted by ChipRick View Post
you are spewing your nonsense on the way up AND down.... based on the current market price, which of us has been more correct on our outlook for the company over the past ~2 years?
You ask this question now at $350 and not two weeks ago at $260. That makes you a loser. People did the same at the last $370 before it tanked. I predict you will disappear again when Tesla tanks again on the next bad news. It's as reliable as clockwork.

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Bears should ask themselves why real analysts do not bring up the "smoking gun" data points/anecdotes you see every other page ITT.
There's no smoking gun. The analysis builds an entire picture, and the picture of both Elon Musk and Tesla that I have built up has been highly accurate.

I have been right on:

- Musk's lies, and Musk as a fraud/conman (c.f. Bulls saying "Musk is just optimistic")

- This led to a correct assessment of the $420 being bull**** while losers like you hilariously thought it was real and a buy/not a short at $370.

- Tesla's manufacturing incompetence that is deeply cultural. For example, that Musk could not make robots work in his planned "alien dreadnought" while people like you lapped up that bull**** vision.

- The horrible nature of autopilot, dead last in autonomous driving with no path to improvement and an increasing liability. The latest V9.0 release is tragicomically bad if you read the forums.

- The total bull**** around Solarcity, Tesla energy, solar roofs, and so on. Bull projections were >1000% too high and climbing.

I have been wrong on how quickly it would happen, mostly because Musk committed serious deliberate fraud (he lied about Model 3 production to sell billions in bonds, get more loans, stay liquid and pump up the stock price) for which he is now under SEC and DOJ investigation.

The thesis is pretty simple and hasn't changed:

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Originally Posted by ToothSayer View Post
They're selling crappy cars that cost about $40K to make (+ ~10K fixed costs) for $62K. Numbers seem perfectly reasonable. In addition the S/X have nice margins.

The bear case is that high end high margin demand dries up, profitability and FCF goes negative again, and then they have to tap capital markets for >$10 billion to just survive next year while keeping new product lines and factories ongoing.
We're currently at the bolded.

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Originally Posted by ToothSayer View Post
Three bear theses:

1. Serious liquidity issues where they appear unable to either raise or have anyone finance debt. Musk either has to be brained damaged/a horrible CEO to be destroying the long term future of the business by not paying suppliers, cutting capex, etc. Or they can't raise. If the latter (80%), they go bankrupt soon as the amount due is enormous and they lack the scale for profitability. They have a Quick Ratio of 0.31. That's an objective measure that means imminent bankruptcy. Musk's only out is a capital raise or more long term debt, very soon.

Your only counter to why he hasn't is that Musk isn't raising "because he doesn't want to dilute his equity", which I think shows even you agree that the lack of raising is bizarre and stupid. A billion dollars raised would dilute his equity by a mere 0.4% and give breathing room. He's previously raised for far more. It also doesn't explain why no debt?

2. Structural unprofitability and lack of large scale demand at higher prices. They can't build and sell the $35K car at anywhere near $35K with all costs accounted, according to all teardowns. At least $10K loss per car is certain even at higher volume. Musk himself says Tesla will "die" if they sell the car for $35K even at 5K/week volume. This lack of structural profitability means they will never get the large amounts of money needed to continue, as they have no volume car being pushed out for billions in profit and free cash flow to give then access to the large amounts of future debt needed (10s of billions) to fund capex and R&D and pay off old debt. The equity markets are tapped out; their main funding source (apart from mortgaging everything they own) has been the equity markets which they are now scaled out of.

3. Competition. Tesla manufacturing is uber crap and decades behinds the majors. The only good thing is they have is the battery/electric powertrain and that will soon be commoditized. They suck ass on cost and quality on the top of the car and need >$50 billion in fresh inflowing capital to get to scale where they don't suck and can produce a viable mass market car.

If Tela raises $5 billion, #1 doesn't happen. #2 and #3 remain intact. 2020 $200 puts are still an excellent play even with #1 gone.
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Old 11-09-2018, 10:42 PM   #6252
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

JB Straubel just made an unplanned stock sale. That might be instant death to the bear thesis depending on why he was allowed to do it.

https://www.streetinsider.com/SEC+Fi.../14813083.html

syndr0me, thoughts?
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Old 11-10-2018, 11:52 AM   #6253
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Originally Posted by Mori****a System View Post
JB Straubel just made an unplanned stock sale. That might be instant death to the bear thesis depending on why he was allowed to do it.

https://www.streetinsider.com/SEC+Fi.../14813083.html

syndr0me, thoughts?
Ya not great for bears. I would say its bad for the nearer term bear thesis that involves way OTM puts because their chances of raising just went up. Still need to file a registration statement which should require a lot more info around the backlog, the ungodly improvement of margins and expenses, hopefully even some color on why FG inventory went up in a period where they sold more than they produced (im dreaming tho that will never happen)


With all that said, Tesla is still a zero imo but the timeline will be pushed back if they raise.



Still, its an insider is unloading shares of a company where he clearly knows more than us, also just one, meaning he likely got legal guidance that the disclosure of the DOJ investigation and SEC investigation was enough for him to be able to sell.


So ya. Not great for near term thesis, but its still a total zero imo.
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Old 11-10-2018, 11:58 AM   #6254
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Until last Q i def didnt think Tesla was committing financial fraud, now im near certain they in some way are. Its not part of the thesis because im convinced they will never be punished for it until the economic reality of their situation sets in.
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Old 11-10-2018, 12:34 PM   #6255
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

What exactly has changed? Of course, they were able to get funding...
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Old 11-10-2018, 02:51 PM   #6256
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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What exactly has changed? Of course, they were able to get funding...
Part of the near term thesis and overall thesis was they cant raise because of pending investigations or sitting on MNPI which was evidence by no internal sales outside of a 10b5-1 plan in over a year.

The Straubel sale puts a big dent in that assumption and hurts the bear case. My gut says they will be able to issue equity because the market wants to see it and wants the story to continue.
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Old 11-10-2018, 08:01 PM   #6257
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Man the Tesla embezzlement case is so weird

Here is a thread that tries to summarize all the weird facts. Def worth a read.


https://twitter.com/ElonBachman/stat...155846657?s=19

Last edited by syndr0me; 11-10-2018 at 08:11 PM.
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Old 11-12-2018, 12:28 PM   #6258
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Fundamentally, TSLA's not going to crash and burn until the broader market turns over. In a market where f*cking WeWork (loss-making REIT which is somehow able to brand itself a tech company) is able to raise billions at a $35B valuation, there will be plenty of funds who either believe in TSLA or believe they'll find a greater fool.
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Old 11-12-2018, 05:38 PM   #6259
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

More weirdness

Cliffs: Lubbock man arrested for drug trafficking and other items


Found in his car is a 245k deposit slip to a Tesla bank account


I mean, i was trying to think of how this would be possible, like 5k Roadster 2 deposit and remaining payment for the founders series? Seems super unlikely, but maybe?

http://www.fox34.com/story/37387466/...ug-trafficking
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Old 11-12-2018, 05:46 PM   #6260
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Posting year old story?
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Old 11-12-2018, 05:55 PM   #6261
syndr0me
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

whoops, was making rounds so i assumed it had to be new.

Probably making rounds because of the embezzlement case stuff.

my bad
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Old 11-12-2018, 06:05 PM   #6262
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Tesla account/factory/parts trucks used for drug trafficking? Wouldn't surprise me. It's easy to latch a criminal enterprise onto a very poorly run company flying through billions/quarter, especially when the entire accounting staff quits.

Super low probability though. Apart form that, drug dealing kidnappers buying Tesla is probably bullish.
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Old 11-12-2018, 07:03 PM   #6263
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Agreed, nothing about the long term tesla thesis has changed other than the miraculous q3 which i find highly questionable (admittedly its significant, all outdenying its possible would be a leak).

Numbers and trends have momentum and so much doesnt make sense, and there is still the incoming competition, loss of credit in US, and the crushing debt.
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Old 11-12-2018, 07:08 PM   #6264
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Originally Posted by syndr0me View Post
More weirdness

Cliffs: Lubbock man arrested for drug trafficking and other items


Found in his car is a 245k deposit slip to a Tesla bank account


I mean, i was trying to think of how this would be possible, like 5k Roadster 2 deposit and remaining payment for the founders series? Seems super unlikely, but maybe?

http://www.fox34.com/story/37387466/...ug-trafficking
You posted an article earlier in this thread back in August that could possibly be related:

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Originally Posted by syndr0me View Post
Oh cmon, someone leaking lies to try and make the truth appear blurry, this cant be real


https://jalopnik.com/several-tesla-g...ing-1828393920
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Old 11-12-2018, 07:17 PM   #6265
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Old 11-12-2018, 07:47 PM   #6266
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Tesla VP in legal dept leaves

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/a...mpression=true

To be GC at.....Sonder
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Old 11-12-2018, 07:49 PM   #6267
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Originally Posted by TeflonDawg View Post
You posted an article earlier in this thread back in August that could possibly be related:
Its just too out there to take seriously, still weird
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Old 11-13-2018, 12:45 PM   #6268
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Originally Posted by ToothSayer View Post
Horrible delivery numbers for October. The loser Elon Musk is so desperate to keep his stock pumped, InsideEV publishes them in a fluff article (rather than the horrible, numbers hitting organically without commentary), then he responds immediately with this:

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1058080219041456128

Tooth, are you advocating long, mid, or short term puts here? Are you thinking Q4 is going to flop and picking and expiry just after Q4 reporting? Or are you expecting this is a high before the bankruptcy scenario plays out?
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