I guess i should be happy about this, elon at the helm makes tesla a near certain zero

Tesla in the S&P 500 soon?

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/08/tesl...benchmark.html

Anyone want to put some escrowed money down that Tesla will be in the S&P 500 at 2Q 19, as the article/analyst suggests? From my side, offering even money up to $1000 that they won't be listed. As the article says, they tick all the boxes for listing, all they need is aggregate GAAP profitability over the previous 12 months.

Basically, I'm betting that Elon is a liar when he claims that they'll be profitable from now on. You're betting he's not. So any of the Elon fans should love a shot at my money. Better return than long Tesla.

Apart from the above being silly (what banks did a year ago before Musk=fraud was commonly accepted is irrelevant), we have this today:

Musk said to divide Wall Street with new SpaceX loan

Goldman seemingly not wanting to be involved with Musk any more, on a personal loan level or even his companies, despite his enormous paper wealth. They balked at doing the debt raise and switched banks, which is very rare.

Some other zingers in that article.

Musk looking for further personal loans beyond his $4 billion(!) of Tesla stock pledged as loan security. The billionaire had to go hat-in-hand to other banks.
SpaceX using creative accounting to show a fake profit:

Ya what i dont get is how prepayments could be counted as revenue there. Doesnt make much sense

Not a better return than long Tesla calls if Tesla is profitable.

Ime i have always been surprised at the lack of diligence done around the removal of one time items for M&A and capital raise transactions. Ive never been involved on the public side tho so im sure it is likely very diff.

That's debatable. August 2019 400 calls are $45. That's the first option available after Q2 '19 reports. You think Tesla is better than 50/50 to reach $500 by then if it's consistently profitable? On what basis?

The DoJ cometh:

https://www.justice.gov/usao-ndca/pr...t-scheme-tesla

It's such a bizarre indictment that I have to assume that it was made for the purposes of getting the guy to turn state's evidence.

Any other stock would crash 5%+ on such news especially with today's market crash, but TSLA has always been a special stock.

you are spewing your nonsense on the way up AND down.... based on the current market price, which of us has been more correct on our outlook for the company over the past ~2 years?

Bears should ask themselves why real analysts do not bring up the "smoking gun" data points/anecdotes you see every other page ITT.

Short answer is your analysis is trash and you should stick to your day job (and index your investment portfolio)...

because sell-side analysts aren't paid to write about that. they are paid to sell you the next capital raise.

some of the buy-side guys are pretty vocal (for their standard) about the stuff that's happening at the company.

You ask this question now at $350 and not two weeks ago at $260. That makes you a loser. People did the same at the last $370 before it tanked. I predict you will disappear again when Tesla tanks again on the next bad news. It's as reliable as clockwork.

There's no smoking gun. The analysis builds an entire picture, and the picture of both Elon Musk and Tesla that I have built up has been highly accurate.

I have been right on:

- Musk's lies, and Musk as a fraud/conman (c.f. Bulls saying "Musk is just optimistic")

- This led to a correct assessment of the $420 being bull**** while losers like you hilariously thought it was real and a buy/not a short at $370.

- Tesla's manufacturing incompetence that is deeply cultural. For example, that Musk could not make robots work in his planned "alien dreadnought" while people like you lapped up that bull**** vision.

- The horrible nature of autopilot, dead last in autonomous driving with no path to improvement and an increasing liability. The latest V9.0 release is tragicomically bad if you read the forums.

- The total bull**** around Solarcity, Tesla energy, solar roofs, and so on. Bull projections were >1000% too high and climbing.

I have been wrong on how quickly it would happen, mostly because Musk committed serious deliberate fraud (he lied about Model 3 production to sell billions in bonds, get more loans, stay liquid and pump up the stock price) for which he is now under SEC and DOJ investigation.

The thesis is pretty simple and hasn't changed:

We're currently at the bolded.

JB Straubel just made an unplanned stock sale. That might be instant death to the bear thesis depending on why he was allowed to do it.

https://www.streetinsider.com/SEC+Fi.../14813083.html

syndr0me, thoughts?

Ya not great for bears. I would say its bad for the nearer term bear thesis that involves way OTM puts because their chances of raising just went up. Still need to file a registration statement which should require a lot more info around the backlog, the ungodly improvement of margins and expenses, hopefully even some color on why FG inventory went up in a period where they sold more than they produced (im dreaming tho that will never happen)


With all that said, Tesla is still a zero imo but the timeline will be pushed back if they raise.



Still, its an insider is unloading shares of a company where he clearly knows more than us, also just one, meaning he likely got legal guidance that the disclosure of the DOJ investigation and SEC investigation was enough for him to be able to sell.


So ya. Not great for near term thesis, but its still a total zero imo.

Until last Q i def didnt think Tesla was committing financial fraud, now im near certain they in some way are. Its not part of the thesis because im convinced they will never be punished for it until the economic reality of their situation sets in.

What exactly has changed? Of course, they were able to get funding...

Part of the near term thesis and overall thesis was they cant raise because of pending investigations or sitting on MNPI which was evidence by no internal sales outside of a 10b5-1 plan in over a year.

The Straubel sale puts a big dent in that assumption and hurts the bear case. My gut says they will be able to issue equity because the market wants to see it and wants the story to continue.

Man the Tesla embezzlement case is so weird

Here is a thread that tries to summarize all the weird facts. Def worth a read.


https://twitter.com/ElonBachman/stat...155846657?s=19

Fundamentally, TSLA's not going to crash and burn until the broader market turns over. In a market where f*cking WeWork (loss-making REIT which is somehow able to brand itself a tech company) is able to raise billions at a $35B valuation, there will be plenty of funds who either believe in TSLA or believe they'll find a greater fool.

More weirdness

Cliffs: Lubbock man arrested for drug trafficking and other items


Found in his car is a 245k deposit slip to a Tesla bank account


I mean, i was trying to think of how this would be possible, like 5k Roadster 2 deposit and remaining payment for the founders series? Seems super unlikely, but maybe?

http://www.fox34.com/story/37387466/...ug-trafficking

Posting year old story?

whoops, was making rounds so i assumed it had to be new.

Probably making rounds because of the embezzlement case stuff.

my bad

Tesla account/factory/parts trucks used for drug trafficking? Wouldn't surprise me. It's easy to latch a criminal enterprise onto a very poorly run company flying through billions/quarter, especially when the entire accounting staff quits.

Super low probability though. Apart form that, drug dealing kidnappers buying Tesla is probably bullish.

Agreed, nothing about the long term tesla thesis has changed other than the miraculous q3 which i find highly questionable (admittedly its significant, all outdenying its possible would be a leak).

Numbers and trends have momentum and so much doesnt make sense, and there is still the incoming competition, loss of credit in US, and the crushing debt.