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TSLA showing cracks? TSLA showing cracks?

11-07-2018 , 05:16 PM
TS, have you ever heard about the word "obsession"?
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
11-07-2018 , 05:20 PM
Kelvis,
I trade and watch the market all day. It's how I make money. Tesla is my biggest earner by a big margin, both long and short. I stay ahead of all news. I'd rather do something else but there is too much money to be made here, so I stay on top of it.

The creepy Musk fanboys like Spurious, who jump in to defend him against any accusation, are the ones with zero legitimate reason to be here. Who the hell defends a weird billionaire on an investing forum when you don't even trade?
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Originally Posted by Spurious
It obviously tanked the stock, the way you make it sound makes it more drastic (by making up numbers) and is not taking anything afterwards into account. It's also cherry picking the time period which makes it even more absurd.
It was a perfectly straightforward and uncontroversial statement, and even if it wasn't everyone here knows the numbers/what I'm talking about so it's even more utterly absurd that you act as a butt-guard for Musk on this. Like, really weird.

Last edited by ToothSayer; 11-07-2018 at 05:26 PM.
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11-07-2018 , 05:26 PM
Ok so let's assume you're right and he's a fraud. What difference does it make to you? Wouldn't it be wise to share your secrets with as few people as possible so you keep having an advantage?
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11-07-2018 , 05:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kelvis
Ok so let's assume you're right and he's a fraud. What difference does it make to you? Wouldn't it be wise to share your secrets with as few people as possible so you keep having an advantage?
No. That's not how it works.
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11-07-2018 , 05:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
Tesla is my biggest earner by a big margin, both long and short.
I should know better but everyone who has spent more than 5 minutes in this thread knows what a big lie that statement is. A tiny percentage of your predictions have turned out to be true. You have no idea how businesses or the economy work and you want to claim that you've made so much money from TSLA. No one actually believes this. Why keep claiming it?
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
11-07-2018 , 05:39 PM
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Originally Posted by stinkypete
No. That's not how it works.
Great answer. Good arguments. I guess the way to go is to post all day long on 2+2 about how Elon is a fraud while literally nobody cares while supposedly having better things to do. I'll be on my way then.
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11-07-2018 , 05:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kelvis
Great answer. Good arguments. I guess the way to go is to post all day long on 2+2 about how Elon is a fraud while literally nobody cares while supposedly having better things to do. I'll be on my way then.
Why would you lose your advantage while literally nobody cares?
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11-07-2018 , 05:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by stinkypete
Why would you lose your advantage while literally nobody cares?
What's the point of going on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on about it? Can you tell me what purpose it can possibly have that outweighs the time spent plus looking like a creep that shows on the doll where Elon touched him? Because I don't see it.
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11-07-2018 , 05:49 PM
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Originally Posted by Kelvis
Because I don't see it.
Great, you don't understand trading.
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11-07-2018 , 05:51 PM
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Originally Posted by stinkypete
Great, you don't understand trading.
You really need to show me this doll.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
11-07-2018 , 05:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kelvis
What's the point of going on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on about it? Can you tell me what purpose it can possibly have that outweighs the time spent plus looking like a creep that shows on the doll where Elon touched him? Because I don't see it.
Man, facts really upset the bulls/Musk fanboys. The last two pages are us discussing developments/news that are relevant, to, you know, trading the stock? Which is the point of being here? Then a Musk fanboy (Spurious) decides to whiteknight Elon on a non-controversial comment about how's he a risk for banks since the "funding secured" tweet. That's what started this. Now both you and him are desperately trying to personally attack me. This is like dealing with Scientologists. Grow up and ask yourself...if you don't trade Tesla, WTF are you doing here? I can't imagine being even remotely interested in Elon Musk except for the trading opportunities.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
11-07-2018 , 06:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kelvis
What's the point of going on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on about it? Can you tell me what purpose it can possibly have that outweighs the time spent plus looking like a creep that shows on the doll where Elon touched him? Because I don't see it.
this is a 50-60b bigcap that had multiple 10-20% swings just the last year. plus this has to be the name with the most amount of free research available and arguably the most financially illiterate shareholder base in history, you can practically follow the sentiment in this every single day. i'm no short term trader, but for the short term guys like TS this must be the nuts.

i guess if you'd nailed just a few of the 10% swings in this the last 2-3 years you could be retired by now. and the information to do that is out there, on ****ing twitter.
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11-07-2018 , 06:08 PM
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Originally Posted by ToothSayer
He's done long term damage to the business by not having enough cash to ramp, for capex, etc. He's acting like under extreme stress (most frauds go nuts near the end). Does this make any sense if he can raise when he wants?
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
Musk did his standard donkey-carrot fraud tweet routine as well, claiming that there's new "Fully Self Driving" hardware coming in "about six months" that will be "500% to 2000%" faster. Probably to coincide with the judge approval announcement.

Stock would be $100 or so without Musk's constant fraud I think. It's a pure penny stock-like constant PR tailored to the morons who like Elon.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
The bulls haven't been right on anything since before 2014. Spurious is a just a delusional weirdo trying a sad attempt at trolling.

What on Earth can you say after this avalanche of failure and lies and fraud from Musk? Most of the glee-clowns on the $420 tweet (who are so incredibly dumb on so many levels that they were sure it was real) have buried their heads in shame and haven't returned to the thread.
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Originally Posted by ToothSayer
It was a low probability but meaningful uncertainty removed + huge up market off lows (QQQ is up 2.5%) + the Musk fraud pump on Fully Self Driving. Nothing surprising here at all. Nothing to do with funding. Nothing to do with Musk keeping his mouth shut.
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Originally Posted by ToothSayer
What a farce. Dow Jones news wire:

500K by 2029 instead of 2019? And the story uncorrected for six hours.

This is garden variety penny stock fraud.
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Originally Posted by ToothSayer
Much of Wall Street believed his 5K/week by end of 2017, 10K/week by end of 2018 Model 3.

I guess it's obvious to a wider group of people now that Elon Musk is a liar, loser and fraud, but probably not half yet.
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Originally Posted by ToothSayer
Good summary of the current state of things.

https://twitter.com/ElonBachman/stat...27513843871745

The fraud is coming unraveled (even the out-of-their-minds bulls like heltok or ChipRick would realize that FSD is pure fraud) and there will be hundreds of millions in liability for the Fully Self Driving fraud alone.
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Originally Posted by ToothSayer
They've been fraudulently selling Fully Self Driving for several years, promising it in "3 to 6 months", claiming a hardware upgrade wasn't need.

Musk (the moron) a few days ago touted Tesla's next chip, coming in "about 6 months" with "500% to 2000%" better performance, which will finally enable fully self driving. He said current cars will be upgraded free of charge.

Today they remove the Fully Self Driving option from all orders. There is also an ongoing lawsuit about their autopilot/Fully Self Driving fraud. They've taken hundreds of millions of dollars for a non-existent, impossible-to-exist feature, using lies that amount to serious criminal fraud. They'll likely have to pay it back.
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Originally Posted by ToothSayer
Fully self driving was total bull****, another lie from the liar and conman, Elon Musk.

Musk admitted a few days ago that the current hardware/chip can't do FSD after saying for years it could.

Today they pulled the $3000 FSD option they've been selling for years and promising "soon".

A lawsuit is currently ongoing over Musk's fraud with FSD. Might be related. Might not.
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Originally Posted by ToothSayer
A good summary of Tesla's obvious accounting fraud. There's a reason the entire accounting staff has quit:

https://twitter.com/ElonBachman/stat...12374593359872

The thread goes into how SolarCity was going down the same way, which is why Musk thrust it on his shareholders with lies (bankruptcy and fraud charges were inevitable after they had to restate earnings had SCTY not been bailed out by Tesla shareholders).
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Originally Posted by ToothSayer
The internal accounting software is a giant red flag imo.

One of two things are true:

- Musk is such an incredible loser/micromanager/control freak who wants to vertically integrate everything to the extent that he even spends a large amount of programming resources developing in-house accounting software rather than using the perfectly capable off-the-shelf accounting software

- Musk developed in-house accounting software to help with accounting fraud.

Given that Musk has a long history of deliberate fraud (SCTY deliberately inflated production costs by over 100% to defraud Oregon, for example; they also had to restate due to other accounting fraud, and got sued for plenty of other frauds for which the Tesla bailout saved them from further scrutiny/bankruptcy), I'd say the latter is more likely.

This is also an excellent overview of the Tesla accounting tricks to boost cash this quarter. Stuff like taking payment and not delivering the car, selling it someone else for their cash instead. What kind of "about to become permanently profitable" company pulls tricks like this?
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
Musk has been built up as a hero and genius. He's very obviously a liar and a fraud, and apart from strong skills in that area, not very bright and downright horrible with necessary "boring" detail. That analysis is the most important investment analysis there is, as nearly everything we know about Tesla depends on trust in Musk's accounting and projections. Take the self driving nonsense from 2016. Musk = liar and fraud led you to the correct analysis. Credulous heltok, who believed Musk rather than look at the rock solid analysis laid for him in detail on how bad autopilot was and how unlikely to improve given that, made an ass of himself despite the advantage of working in the industry. The same for many things.

A more recent example is the $420 tweet. If you put P(Musk is a liar and fraud) as > 90%, you come out with the right probabilities, as I did, that this is a very easy short at $370. If you put P(Musk is a liar and fraud) at <10%, you come out with very very wrong probabilities and lose a lot of money, as heltok, ChipRick, and the whole gaggle of bullish clowns in this thread did. That miscalculation cost them more money than any other single analysis on Tesla.

There are a few questions as to whether Tesla survives, and they all revolve around Musk's psychology.

- Is he a competent or incompetent leader and manager? Does his personality allow Tesla to recover from his extreme incompetence as a leader, or will he double and triple and pedo-dog-dare-burn-the-shorts-with-fraud-tweets right to the bottom?

- To what extent would he sanction fraud and creative accounting? Are his gross margins to be believed? How accurate is the picture created by the numbers in this upcoming quarter?

- Does the fraud run deep enough for the eventual downfall of Tesla via criminal and civil charges and liability?

All of these things depend on Musk's psychology as he basically runs this thing as a micromanaged fiefdom, with a powerless lackey board. I consider his psychology a settled question at this point given the mountains of evidence we have now, but others don't, because they're stupid.

Hey, if you think my thesis is wrong, then say so. They're all just theses. I'm not an accountant.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
Citron (famous short seller suing Musk for his $420 fraud tweet) recommending long Tesla this morning is one of the my favorite bits of the soap opera so far.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
Man, facts really upset the bulls/Musk fanboys. The last two pages are us discussing developments/news that are relevant, to, you know, trading the stock? Which is the point of being here? Then a Musk fanboy (Spurious) decides to whiteknight Elon on a non-controversial comment about how's he a risk for banks since the "funding secured" tweet. That's what started this. Now both you and him are desperately trying to personally attack me. This is like dealing with Scientologists. Grow up and ask yourself...if you don't trade Tesla, WTF are you doing here? I can't imagine being even remotely interested in Elon Musk except for the trading opportunities.
Just 2 pages ctr+f "fraud", almost exclusively your posts. You're obsessed and I am going to leave now to let you ramble on. I highly advice going to the authorities and bring the doll.
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11-07-2018 , 06:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
I can't imagine being even remotely interested in Elon Musk except for the trading opportunities.
He's a compulsive liar, conman, and sociopath who has somehow tricked the world into thinking he's a benevolent but eccentric engineering genius. He has a bloodlust for the people who see him for what he really is and he suffers from uncontrollable raging tilt issues. He's pretty ****ing fascinating.

It's also not that hard to understand why a neckbeard like Spurious or Kelvis would want to live vicariously through an evil "genius" who has tricked much of the world into thinking he's going to save us all while banging chicks like Amber Heard and the ultimate loser crush Grimes.
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11-07-2018 , 06:22 PM
.

Last edited by Kelvis; 11-07-2018 at 06:23 PM. Reason: You've read it
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11-07-2018 , 07:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kelvis
Just 2 pages ctr+f "fraud", almost exclusively your posts. You're obsessed and I am going to leave now to let you ramble on. I highly advice going to the authorities and bring the doll.


I estimate 30% chance ToothSayer is a troll bot, otherwise he is such a waste of energy it is sad
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
11-07-2018 , 07:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kelvis
Just 2 pages ctr+f "fraud", almost exclusively your posts. You're obsessed and I am going to leave now to let you ramble on. I highly advice going to the authorities and bring the doll.
You do understand that Musk just committed securities fraud, right? That this was splashed over the pages of the entire financial press for weeks as it played out dramatically with the SEC with endless trading opportunities? Of course you don't. To you he's like Ron Hubbard is to Scientologists. Which is why you white knight for a 40 something billionaire on the Internet.

The last time you showed up was after his $420 tweet, right before the stock tanked 30% in weeks. Strangely, you mentioned me then too. It seems that it's you who's obsessed - with me.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChipRick


I estimate 30% chance ToothSayer is a troll bot, otherwise he is such a waste of energy it is sad
My favorite thing is how the losers come out of the woodwork when the stock goes right up, and disappear entirely when the stock tanks. It's quite comical.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
11-08-2018 , 02:14 AM
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Originally Posted by ToothSayer
My favorite thing is how the losers come out of the woodwork when the stock goes right up, and disappear entirely when the stock tanks. It's quite comical.
You arrogant piece of human trash, stop calling names.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
11-08-2018 , 05:15 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by stinkypete
He's a compulsive liar, conman, and sociopath who has somehow tricked the world into thinking he's a benevolent but eccentric engineering genius. He has a bloodlust for the people who see him for what he really is and he suffers from uncontrollable raging tilt issues. He's pretty ****ing fascinating.

It's also not that hard to understand why a neckbeard like Spurious or Kelvis would want to live vicariously through an evil "genius" who has tricked much of the world into thinking he's going to save us all while banging chicks like Amber Heard and the ultimate loser crush Grimes.
The reality is that Musk has people like you, TS, syndr0me convinced that the world is way easier than it really is. The expectations that people have of TSLA are way out of line with what is possible in reality.

We have no one mentioning the millions of cars being recalled from the other major companies. I haven't read anything about GM recently, despite the fact that TS has been saying for years that they will crush TSLA.

Why haven't we heard more of the Tesla Model X killer Jaguar i Pace? Right, because they can't produce more than a few hundred cars a month despite being a car company. I thought it was easy to just switch to producing EV? Or is a few hundred cars a month the sweet spot for profitability despite having a nice backlog of orders? They experience the exact same thing that Tesla experienced.

Every other month some other Tesla killer comes up and ultimately short of Tesla. This is primarily the reason why I stay ITT and argue consistently in favor of Tesla.

People like you, TS, syndr0me are short-term, linear thinkers, but that's not how reality works. It works for short periods, but not for anything beyond a year. The world is multi-dimensional and trying to evaluate everything in simple terms is not going to get you far (as evidenced ITT by all the bears that have been crushed by the stock).
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11-08-2018 , 09:18 AM
Denholm new chair, she was existing "independent" director


I guess this was more or less expected
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11-08-2018 , 09:23 AM
she worked at arthur andersen for five years, i think she's the right person to lead the board through the next few years.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
11-08-2018 , 10:04 AM
OJ Simpson was clearly guilty of murder and yet had wide swaths of the public in support of him and his innocence. He was acquitted despite massive amounts of evidence against him.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
11-08-2018 , 10:29 AM
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Originally Posted by syndr0me
Denholm new chair, she was existing "independent" director


I guess this was more or less expected
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Originally Posted by BooLoo
she worked at arthur andersen for five years, i think she's the right person to lead the board through the next few years.
Not to mention she's on the other side of the world in Australia working for Telstra (Australia's main communications company) for the next 6 months. Absurd even for optics.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
11-08-2018 , 12:31 PM
Telstra, Tesla, close enough.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
11-08-2018 , 02:14 PM
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Originally Posted by ToothSayer
Not to mention she's on the other side of the world in Australia working for Telstra (Australia's main communications company) for the next 6 months. Absurd even for optics.
Unreal, tesla openly states she will allow another board member to perform chair duties for 6 months AND she steps down from audit committee (ie she doesnt have to sign the 10-k)

She got paid off to be chair but assume less responsibility than she already has.


Jay clayton is the beta of all betas
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