No, no downtime that was mentioned.

It's somewhat standard for Tesla to ship 1500 in the first two months and then 3000 end of quarter month. It doesn't make sense for a sanely run car company, but Musk is hardly sane. I think he's possibly fairly mentally ill and obsessed with the numbers/burning the shorts. So they have substandard/steady state stuff during the first two months and then push like crazy to make the quarter numbers. I think he's one of those total losers who takes the world on his shoulders and can't handle losing...the $420 go private was a kind of wish/release valve from his mental illness and the torment "the shorts" (aka his own lies and incompetence) inflict on him. He talked about how awful it was to be distracted by scrutinized quarterly numbers as a reason for going private. Incredible that a loser like that ended up CEO of such a large company, but that's what seems to have happened.

So yeah, the numbers are low even for their regular cycle. Model 3 dropoff in particular is amazing - for a production supposedly ramping, only doing 4200/week last quarter, the number went down 25%.

Another possibility is that high end demand has simply dropped off, and they're going slow on the lower end because they lose money. Or maybe all demand has dropped off - they've been sending out promotional emails to people in their database (not reservation holders) to buy the Model 3 with minimal wait times.

Edit: oops

What tax credit ended at the end of September? They have the full $7500 until the end of December, then it all goes to crap.

I thought the max credit was done after Q3, I might be wrong. Google giving mixed info

Yeah I'm wrong. Projections were that they'd sell 200k cars by Q2 but I guess they delayed some to extend the credit and boost Q3 numbers.

Max credit is done after Q4

ETA: didn’t see last post, yes they delayed to keep the credit an extra Q

Yeah they have two quarters after hitting 200K to enjoy the full credit on unlimited cars. Which makes their limited production rate (nowhere near even the small 5000/week Musk promised 2017, Q1, Q2, Q3 18) pretty hilarious. Come 1 January they're up against full credit competitors; $3750 extra subsidy to competitors and then $7500 more subsidy. I have no idea how you can survive on the low end ($35K) while costing far more to build your cars than your competitors AND your competitors getting 20% subsidy.

Yeah the numbers being this bad with the full credit continuing is even more bearish than I thought.

IEV numbers are inline with expectations imo, not really a miss (if you believe the numbers are that high). S/X maybe a little low given ~28k target, but not far off since expectation is for delivery to be heavily weighted to December

Bears are back at it again. TS has been in full desperation mode for well over a year now, but didn't know that stinkypete has turned completely nuts as well (you always seemed sane).

TS,
the reason why you don't understand why Musk is replying so quickly to those stories is because you have no clue how businesses work. You have literally no business sense that's why none of your predictions so far have been right.

It is absolutely standard for a company to comment on stories like this. It's insane that you are even suggesting otherwise. It's the attention that Tesla is getting that makes it seem exaggerated. Keeed is absolutely right in this. The stock market is actually laughing at clowns like you, TS, who do not seem to understand how businesses and economics work. You have been destroyed by the market. When were you ever right? The stock is at $345 now. When will your thesis play out?

Next year is going to be interesting for the stock price. Q3 2020 will be game over for the bears.

At least one thing in your post is correct

It shows where his focus is


Have you ever tried to do something when u cant stop thinking about something else?

Man spurious you are an amazing dude

The Q is out

He's the Karl Pilkington of the Tesla thread. Love the guy.

10q report out

This is my favorite thing so far they found on twitter: what happens when your entire accounting staff quits (because you're not a fraud and because you pay 3x industry rates and because you're about to become permanently profitable):

off by a billion here or there. who cares?
have you driven the car, bro?

This is on PwC more than Tesla, you tie out every schedule atleast 5 times before issuing.

There is a hard copy ticked and tied version of this somewhere that lots of people signed off on that footing.


Embarassing

"I just think there's other things in life I want to do than tweet. I am not that desperate for somebody to hear my opinion"

Warren Buffett said that.

That just came to my mind when reading your post. I don't necessarily disagree with it, but the question must be asked:

Has Twitter and Musk's tweeting helped or hurt his company?

Spurious, this is how you look in this thread. It's like you've got a zero missing in your head. You show up when the price goes up, you're silent when it's down. You frame your posts in a way that sounds like you're stating the reality you wish to be. You don't discuss the reality that is, nor do you ever take a sober view of anything. There are plenty of bulls who can actually make a reasonable case. I can. You seem like you're being deliberately obtuse and I don't think anyone can really take you seriously anymore no matter where the price goes, short, medium, long term.

140m ghg credits


The AR disclosure says over 10% to one entity, as opposed to customer which is standard language. This pretty much means the AR spike is likely a rebate from a vendor, possibly pana, which very likely went against some combo of cogs and inventory. Given inventory is still very high.....

Saw that, also the bank explanation timing really doesnt make a lot of sense because deposits in transit are part of cash.


That AR spike is so fishy

My guess: deposits in transit is Saturday and Sunday deliveries wouldn't have deposits in transit until the bank signs off and releases the cash, probably on Monday. Something like that.

More to the point, AR/sales (3 months) isn't that dramatically different from last quarter (0.14 v. 0.17). It's actually lower compared to the AR/sales (3 months) using Dec 2017 numbers.

obviously some of Musk's tweets have hurt Tesla. I'm not defending all of Musk's tweets, I'm saying that the specific tweet being discussed is absolutely the sort of function that CEOs fill. A big part of their job is investor relations/PR/defining the external and internal narrative.

Calling a cave rescue guy a pedo is bad and, uh, does not address any legitimate CEO functions. Commenting on how a news article about your firm has a certain inaccuracy is absolutely the the sort of thing a CEO should be doing. So "is Musk's twitter good for Tesla" is a separate, bigger question. And the tweet that tooth sayer turbo posted ITT (within six minutes! Tooth doesn't have time to make a 30 bagger trade with no risk but apparently has tons of time to turbo post Musk tweets ITT, weird) is certainly not an example of a tweet that is bad for Tesla. It's definitely in the purview of CEO type responsibilities.